PUBLICATIONS

Peer reviewed publications

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In preparation & submitted

• Are dependencies of extreme rainfall on humidity more reliable in convection-permitting climate models? Lenderink et al (submitted)

• Changing dynamics of western European summertime cut-off lows. Thompson et al (submitted)

• Western Europe's extreme July 2019 heatwave in a warmer world. De Vries et al (submitted)

• The movement of atmospheric blocking systems: can we still assume quasi-stationarity? Van Mourik et al (submitted)

Published

• The added value of simulated near-surface wind speed over the Alps from a km-scale multimodel ensemble. Molina, M.O., Careto, J.M., Gutiérrez, C. et al. Clim Dyn (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07257-4

• Convection-permitting climate models offer more certain extreme rainfall projections. Fosser, G., Gaetani, M., Kendon, E.J. et al. npj Clim Atmos Sci 7, 51 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00600-w

• The climate change response of alpine-mediterranean heavy precipitation events. Müller, S.K., Pichelli, E., Coppola, E. et al. Clim Dyn 62, 165–186 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06901-9

• Northwestern Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events in a warmer climate : robust versus uncertain changes with a large convection-permitting model ensemble. Caillaud et al. (GRL https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105143)

• Improving our understanding of future tropical cyclone intensities in the Caribbean using a high-resolution regional climate model. Dullaart et al. (2024). Scientific Reports. 14, Article number: 6108 (2024)

• Drivers of Caribbean precipitation change due to global warming. Analyses and emergent constraint of CMIP6 simulations. M. Brotons et al. (Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-023-07072-3)

• Attribution of the heavy rainfall events leading to severe flooding in Western Europe during July 2021.  Tradowsky et al. (Climatic Change,https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-023-03502-7).

• The 2018 west-central European drought projected in a warmer climate: how much drier can it get? Emma E. Aalbers et al. (2023, NHESS, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1921-2023) 

• Investigating the representation of heatwaves from an ensemble of km-scale regional climate simulations within CORDEX-FPS convection. Sangelantoni, L., Sobolowski, S., Lorenz, T. et al. Clim Dyn (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06769-9

• A perfect model study on the reliability of the added small‐scale information in regional climate change projections. Geert Lenderink · Hylke de Vries · Erik van Meijgaard · Karin van der Wiel · Frank Selten. (Climate Dynamics, 2022, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-022-06451-6) 

• The added value of km-scale simulations to describe temperature over complex orography: the CORDEX FPS-Convection multi-model ensemble runs over the Alps. PMM Soares et al. (2022, 10.1007/s00382-022-06593-7 ). 

• Evaluation of Alpine-Mediterranean Precipitation Events in convection-permitting Regional Climate Models using a Set of Tracking Algorithms. S. Müller et al. (Climate Dynamics, 2022, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-022-06555-z)

• Convection in future winter storms over Northern Europe.  S. Berthou et al. (ERL, 2022, http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aca03a)

• Waarom langjarige hitterecords soms verpletterd worden. Iris de Vries en Hylke de Vries. Meteorologica (september 2022)

• Quantifying the role of the large-scale circulation on European summer precipitation change. H de Vries et al. (Climate Dynamics, 2022, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06250-z)

• Rainfall-induced attenuation correction for two operational dual-polarization C-band radars in the Netherlands. Aart Overeem, Hylke de Vries, et al.  (J. Atm. Oceanic Technol., 38, 2021, 1125-1142. doi: 10.1175/JTECH-D-20-0113.1)

• Model development in practice: a comprehensive update to the boundary layer schemes in HARMONIE-AROME cycle 40. Wim de Rooy,... et al (Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1513–1543, 2022. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1513-2022)

• Tsartsali, E.E., Haarsma, R.J., Athanasiadis, P.J. et al. Impact of resolution on the atmosphere–ocean coupling along the Gulf Stream in global high resolution models. Clim Dyn (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-06098-9

• Physical storylines of future European drought events like 2018 based on ensemble climate modelling.  Karin van der Wiel, G. Lenderink, Hylke de Vries. (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2021.100350).

• The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution, Part 2: Historical and future simulations of precipitation. Emanuela Pichelli, ..., Hylke de Vries, et al. (https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-021-05657-4)

• The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution, Part I: Evaluation of precipitation. Nikolina Ban,..., Hylke de Vries, et al. (https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-021-05708-w)

• Quantifying uncertainty in projections of future European climate: a multi-model multi-method approach. L. Brunner,..., Hylke de Vries et al. (https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0953.1)

• HCLIM38: A flexible regional climate model applicable for different climate zones from coarse to convection permitting scales. Belusic, D, Hylke de Vries, et al. (Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1311–1333, 2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1311-2020

• Cold waves are getting milder in the midlatitudes Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, E. Mitchell-Larson, G.A. Vecchi, Hylke de Vries, R. Vautard, F. Otto (ERL, https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4867)

• The Impact of Meteorological and Hydrological Memory on Compound Peak Flows in the Rhine River Basin. Sonu Khanal, AF. Lutz, WW. Immerzeel, Hylke de Vries, N Wanders and B van den Hurk. Atmosphere 2019, 10, 171; doi:10.3390/atmos10040171

• Storm surge and extreme river discharge: a compound event analysis using ensemble impact modelling. Sonu Khanal, N Ridder, Hylke de Vries, W Terink, and B van den Hurk. Frontiers in Earth Science, section Hydrosphere. Front. Earth Sci. | https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2019.00224 

• Systematic thermodynamic responses of hourly precipitation extremes in a warming experiment with a convection-permitting climate model. Geert Lenderink, D. Belusic, H. Fowler, E. Kjellström, P. Lind, E van Meijgaard, B. van Ulft, Hylke de Vries (2019, ERL, https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab214a)

• Human influence on European winter wind storms such as those of January 2018. Vautard, R., G.J van Oldenborgh, Hylke de Vries et al (Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 271-286, 2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-271-2019)

• The Role of Atmospheric Rivers in compound events consisting of heavy precipitation and high storm surges along the Dutch coast. Nina Ridder, Hylke de Vries, and Sybren Drijfhout. NHESS-D (https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3311-2018)

• A first-of-its-kind multi-model convection permitting ensemble for investigating convective phenomena over Europe and the Mediterranean. Erika Coppola, et al. (2018). Climate Dynamics (https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4521-8).

• How Gulf-Stream SST-fronts influence Atlantic winter storms: Results from a downscaling experiment with Harmonie to the role of modified latent heat fluxes and low-level baroclinicity. Hylke de Vries, Sebastian Scher, Rein Haarsma, Sybren Drijfhout and Aarnout van Delden. Climate Dynamics (2018) http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-018-4486-7

• Als orkaan Ophelia Nederland had bereikt. Hylke de Vries, et al. Meteorologica (2018) https://www.nvbm.nl/meteorologica/archief/2018/september-2018

• CMIP5 Derived Single-Forcing, Single-Model and Single-Scenario Wind Wave Climate Ensemble: Configuration and Performance Evaluation (2018). Alvaro Semedo, Mikhail Dobrynin, Gil Lemos, Andreas Sterl, Arno Behrens, Joanna Staneva, Hylke de Vries, Jean Bidlot, Pedro Miranda, Jens Murawski (2018). JMSE (http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jmse6030090)

• Extreme storm surge modelling in the North Sea: The role of the sea-state, forcing frequency and spatial forcing resolution (2018). N. Ridder, Hylke de Vries, S. Drijfhout, Hans de Vries, Henk vd Brink, Erik van Meijgaard. Ocean Dynamics (accepted)

• Understanding the spatial variation of sea level rise in the North Sea using satellite altimetry (2017). P. Sterlini, D. le Bars, Hylke de Vries, N. Ridder. JGR-Oceans, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017JC012907/full

• Resolution Dependence of Extreme Precipitation and Deep Convection over the Gulf Stream (2017). S. Scher, R. Haarsma, Hylke de Vries, A.J. van Delden and S. Drijfhout. Journal of Advances in Modelling Earth Systems (JAMES)

• A high-end sea level rise probabilistic projection including rapid Antarctic ice sheet mass loss (2017). D. le Bars, Sybren Drijfhout and Hylke de Vries. Environmental Research Letters 12 No.4 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa6512

• Impact of asymmetric uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on regional sea level projection (2017). R. de Winter, T.J. Reerink, A.B.A. Slangen, Hylke de Vries, T. Edwards, and R.S.W. van de Wal. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS-2017-86). doi:10.5194/nhess-2017-86

• Characteristics and development of European cyclones with tropical origin in reanalysis data (2017). M. Dekker, R. Haarsma, M. Baatsen, Hylke de Vries and A.J. van Delden. Climate Dynamics

• Harmonie verification and evaluation. Wim de Rooy, Hylke de Vries et al. (2017) Hirlam Reports. HR70

• Response to commentary by J. L. Bamber, W. P. Aspinall and R. M. Cooke (2016). Hylke de Vries and R.S.W. van de Wal. Climatic Change 137: 329-332. DOI 10.1007/s10584-016-1712-3

• Sea surface height variability in the North East Atlantic from satellite altimetry. P. Sterlini, Hylke de Vries and C.A. Katsman. Climate Dynamics.DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2901-x

• Robust Changes in Temperature Variability under Greenhouse Gas Forcing and the Relationship with Thermal Advection. C. Holmes, T.J. Woollings, Hylke de Vries and E. Hawkins. J. Climate http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00735.1

• Resolution dependence of circulation forced future central European summer drying . R. van Haren, RJ Haarsma, Hylke de Vries, GJ van Oldenborgh and W. Hazeleger. Environ Res. Lett. 10 055002. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/055002

• How to interpret expert judgment assessments of 21st century sea-level rise. Hylke de Vries and R.S.W. van de Wal. Climatic Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-015-1346-x

• Cold extremes in North America vs. mild weather in Europe: the winter 2013/2014 in the context of a warming world. GJ van Oldenborgh, RJ Haarsma, Hylke de Vries and M. Allen. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00036.1

• Constructing scenarios of regional sea level change using global temperature pathways. Hylke de Vries, C.A. Katsman and S.S. Drijfhout, 2014. Environ. Res. Lett. 9 (2014) 115007. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/11/115007

• Future snowfall in western and central Europe projected with a high-resolution regional climate model ensemble. Hylke de Vries, G. Lenderink and E. van Meijgaard, 2014. GRL. doi: 10.1002/2014GL059724

• Preparing local climate change scenarios for the Netherlands using resampling of climate model output. G. Lenderink, B. van den Hurk, A. Klein-Tank, GJ. van Oldenborgh, E. van Meijgaard, Hylke de Vries and J. Beersma. Environ. Res. Lett. 9 (2014) 115008. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/11/115008

• Severe Autumn Storms in Future Western Europe with a Warmer Atlantic Ocean. M. Baatsen, R.J. Haarsma, A.J. Van Delden and Hylke de Vries, 2014. Climate Dynamics. doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2329-8

• Atmospheric blocking and its relation to jet changes in a future climate. Hylke de Vries, T.J. Woollings, R.J. Haarsma and W. Hazeleger, 2013. Climate Dynamics. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1699-7

• The February 2012 European cold spell that didn't bring the Dutch another 11-city tour [in: "Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 from a Climate Perspective"]. Hylke de Vries, R. van Westrhenen and G.J. van Oldenborgh, 2013. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 94 (9) pdf

• "Waveguidability" of idealized jets. I. Manola, F. Selten, Hylke de Vries, W. Hazeleger, 2013. JGR Atmospheres 118 (18) 10432–10440. doi:10.1002/jgrd.50758

• More hurricanes to hit Western Europe due to global warming. R.J. Haarsma, W. Hazeleger, C. Severijns, Hylke de Vries, A. Sterl, R. Bintanja, G.J. van Oldenborgh, H. van den Brink, 2013. Geophys. Res. Lett. 40, 1783–1788.doi:10.1002/grl.50360

• Drivers of mean climate change around the Netherlands derived from CMIP5. B.J.J.M. van den Hurk, G.J. van Oldenborgh, G. Lenderink, W. Hazeleger, R.J. Haarsma and Hylke de Vries, 2013. Climate Dynamics 42, 1683-1697. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1707-y

• On the future reduction of snowfall in western and central Europe. Hylke de Vries, R.J. Haarsma and W. Hazeleger, 2012. Climate Dynamics. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1583-x

• Western European cold spells in current and future climate. Hylke de Vries, R.J. Haarsma and W. Hazeleger, 2012. Geophysical Research Letters 39 L04706 doi:10.1029/2011GL050665

• On the direction of Rossby wave breaking in blocking. Chris Weijenborg, Hylke de Vries and R.J. Haarsma, 2012. Climate Dynamics. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1332-1

• On future western European winters with applications to the energy sector. Hylke de Vries, 2012. KNMI-publication

• Evolution of Stratosphere Troposphere Singular Vectors. doi:10.1002/qj.786. Hylke de Vries, J.O. Hooghoudt and W.T.M. Verkley, 2011. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 137, 318-328 (pdf)

• Baroclinic waves with parameterized effects of moisture interpreted using Rossby wave components. doi:10.1175/2010JAS3410.1. Hylke de Vries, J. Methven, T.H.A. Frame and B.J. Hoskins, 2010. J. Atmos. Sci., 67(9), 2766-2784. (pdf)

• Cold winters and the relation to atmospheric blocking. Hylke de Vries, 2011. KNMI-publication

• The continuous spectrum of baroclinic models with uniform meridional potential vorticity gradient and Ekman damping. doi:10.1175/2009JAS3126.1. Hylke de Vries, 2009. J. Atmos. Sci., 66(9), 2946-2951. (pdf)

• An Interpretation of baroclinic initial value problems: Results for simple basic states with non-zero interior PV gradients. doi:10.1175/2008JAS2774.1. Hylke de Vries, J. Methven, T.H.A. Frame and B.J. Hoskins, 2009. J. Atmos. Sci.. 66(4), 864-882. (pdf)

• Comments on "Piecewise potential vorticity inversion: elementary tests". doi:10.1175/2008JAS2769.1. John Methven and Hylke de Vries, 2008. J. Atmos. Sci. 65(9), 3003-3008. (pdf)

• Linear amplification of marginally neutral baroclinic waves. doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2008.00355.x. Hylke de Vries and M. Ehrendorfer, 2008. Tellus A 60,1079-1088. (pdf)

• A counter-propagating Rossby wave perspective on moist baroclinic instability in a two-layer model. T.H.A. Frame, J. Methven, Hylke de Vries and B.J. Hoskins, 2008. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., in preparation.

• Resonance in optimal perturbation evolution. Part I: Two-layer Eady model. doi:10.1175/JAS3867.1. Hylke de Vries and J.D. Opsteegh, 2007. J. Atmos. Sci. 64(3), 673-694. (pdf)

• Resonance in optimal perturbation evolution. Part II: Effects of a non-zero mean PV gradient. doi:10.1175/JAS3868.1. Hylke de Vries and J.D. Opsteegh, 2007. J. Atmos. Sci. 64(3),695-710. (pdf)

• Corrigendum to "Resonance in optimal perturbation evolution". doi:10.1175/JAS4072.1. Hylke de Vries, 2007. J. Atmos. Sci. 64(10), 3735. (pdf)

• Interpretation of discrete and continuum modes in a two-layer Eady model. doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2006.00219.x. Hylke de Vries and J.D. Opsteegh, 2007. Tellus A 59(2),182-197. (pdf)

• Dynamics of Singular Vectors in the Eady model with nonzero Beta. doi:10.1175/JAS3644.1. Hylke de Vries and J.D. Opsteegh, 2006. J. Atmos. Sci. 63(2), 547-564. (pdf)

• Optimal perturbations in the Eady model: Resonance versus PV Unshielding. doi:10.1175/JAS-3395.1. Hylke de Vries and J.D. Opsteegh, 2005. J. Atmos. Sci. 62(2), 492-505. (pdf)