More hurricanes to hit Western Europe due to global warming

Post date: Oct 18, 2014 7:30:09 PM

Monday, May 13, 2013. Oceans warm up as a consequence of climate change. As a consequence hurricanes, formed off the African coast may more rapidly intensify over the ocean, and propagate further north than in the current climate. Some may even reach Europe! We published results of simulations with a very high resolution climate model in Geophysical Research Letters (http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.1002/grl.50360).

Merging of tropical cyclone with the background flow at mid-latitudes, just hours before hitting western Europe with hurricane-force winds. Simulated with a very high resolution climate model (T799) with future concentrations of greenhouse gasses (from Haarsma et al 2013)

Abstract: “We use a very high resolution global climate model (~25 km grid size) with prescribed sea surface temperatures to show that greenhouse warming enhances the occurrence of hurricane-force (> 32.6 m s–1) storms over western Europe during early autumn (August–October), the majority of which originate as a tropical cyclone. The rise in Atlantic tropical sea surface temperatures extends eastward the breeding ground of tropical cyclones, yielding more frequent and intense hurricanes following pathways directed toward Europe. En route they transform into extratropical depressions and reintensify after merging with the midlatitude baroclinic unstable flow. Our model simulations clearly show that future tropical cyclones are more prone to hit western Europe, and do so earlier in the season, thereby increasing the frequency and impact of hurricane force winds.”