Population management
Population doubling.
Fertility rates.
Consumption.
Low fertility.
Migration.
Key challenges.
The population of the world is expected to be around 10 billion people by 2050.
Projecting future population is not an exact science.
Even current population is the best estimate.
The U N estimated that global population reached 7 million on 31st October 2011.
There is some variation in the projected population estimates.
The global birth rate has fallen over the last 50 years, to 2.4 children per woman.
The decline is expected to continue till it reaches a stable replacement rate of around 2.0.
Some scientists believe that equilibrium will be reached around 2050 at a population of 10 billion.
Except during times like the plague or famine,
the global population has experienced continuous growth.
There is good reason to believe that the growth has been hyperbolic.
The time taken for the population to double, halves with every subsequent doubling.
The initial doubling prior to neolithic times took tens of thousands of years.
Doubling time for the population reached around 40 in the end of the 20th century.
At this time it took only 12 years to add 1 billion to the population.
The rate of population growth is now slowing down, but it is still growing.
The birth rate is expected to remain at the 2011 level of 134 million.
Deaths currently at 56 million per year, is expected to increase to 80 million per year.
This is due to increase in the average age of the population.
Current projections show a continuous increase in population,
and also a steady decline in the population growth rate.
These are projections and not predictions.
Some projections, say that if we do not take any action,
the population will reach an unsustainable level of 14 billion by 2100.
Some conservative estimates even projects that the population will decline to 5.5 billion by 2100.
However, this is based on the assumption that there will be catastrophic mass starvation.
The projection of 10 billion is actually a mid range estimate.
The highest fertility rates are seen in the least developed countries.
The lowest fertility rates are seen in the most developed countries.
Fertility rates are also dropping in developing economies of Asia and Latin America.
The overwhelming majority of people, about 4.1 billion live in Asia.
This has the largest land mass, containing the two most populous countries, China and India.
Next is Africa, which is the poorest continent,
but also experiencing the most explosive population growth, with 1 billion people.
Europe has 730 million people.
South America has 600 million people.
North America is the most affluent and biggest net consumer of natural resources.
It has a population of 350 million, which is just 5% of the total.
The least populated region is Australasia with just 35 million people.
The wealthiest nations are experiencing a decline in indigenous population.
Population growth is levelling of in developing countries like BRICS.
The population of the poorest 1.3 billion is increasing.
Lifting them out of poverty would help in reducing the population growth rate.
The level of consumption is just as important as population.
Consumption is a measure of how people’s wants and needs are assuaged.
In economics a need is something we have to have, like food, shelter and water.
A want is something that we would like to have, like ice cream or a villa.
Increasing the level of consumption will have a profound consequence for us all.
The Earth’s capacity to meet the needs of all people is finite.
Apart from sunshine, there is only a finite amount of resources.
The exploitation of these limited resources has an environmental impact on the planet.
Consumption can be sustained over the long term, only if we use renewable resources,
and recycle non renewable resources.
In many parts of the world, basic needs of survival, like water, food and energy are insufficient.
However, global consumption of food, energy and minerals is growing rapidly, and disproportionately.
For those living in poverty, the aspiration is only for an adequate standard of living.
Developed countries are driven by wants, like a new mobile or car, etc., etc..
Population and consumption are different sides of the same coin.
Many economists argue that absolute scarcity does not and cannot exist.
They propound that market forces will stimulate innovation and replacements.
They say that the stone age did not end, for lack of stones.
They feel that the precarious environmental state , we are in now, is only a transitional phase.
Technology they say, will address the limits in natural resources.
To some extent this is true.
When the price of oil increased to more than $100 per barrel,
it became economical to extract oil from tar sands, and deep sea wells.
However, all environment scientist are aware, that there are finite limits to the Earth’s resources.
The global economy can grow by exploiting natural resources, for extended period of time,
but not indefinitely.
There are reasons to be positive.
Energy needs have moved from human and animal power,
to wind, water, timber, coal, oil, natural gas to nuclear and solar.
The transition from high fertility to low fertility is not driven solely by economic factors.
In the richest countries, that make up 42% of world population,
the average family contains less than 2 children.
In the bottom 20% they have 5 to 7 children.
Apart from economic development, improvement in education, and family planning,
contribute to managing population.
Niger is an example of a developing country.
It has improved its life expectancy from 40 in 1980 to 55 in 2011.
Niger has one of the highest population growth rate at 3.5%.
25% of the women have 10 or more children.
The U.N. median projection fertility rate is 3.9.
At this rate the population in Niger will grow from 15 million to 55 million by 2050.
It is likely that this will completely overwhelm food and other essential resources.
Many factors are related to population management.
Age structure, rate of urbanisation, cultural differences, migration, are some of the factors.
For example, a population decline might present a challenge.
It impacts the age structure.
This could mean a smaller working population has to support and pay for increasing numbers,
who have retired.
In China for example, by 2040, for every Chinese worker, there will be nine people who are retired.
Africa is the least urbanised continent.
However it has the fastest growing cities.
62% of Africa’s urban residents, about 200 million people live in slums.
Migration is another sensitive issue.
In U. K. despite falling birth rate, the population is projected to increase,
from 62 million to 75 million by 2050.
The growth is due largely to net inward migration.
This migration will mitigate some negative consequences of an ageing workforce.
It will benefit the education system, which has less of local demand.
It will compensate for skill shortages.
It will improve the competitiveness of the labour market.
Without migration 20% of the European workforce will disappear by 2050.
We need to address some key challenges for population management.
There are 1.3 billion people living on less than 1.25$ per day.
They need to be raised out of poverty.
Consumption has to be reduced in developed and developing economies.
Population growth must be slowed and stabilised.
Unfortunately, increasing consumption is fundamental to all current economic models.
Population, consumption, and environment are related.
The capacity of the Earth is fixed.
How long it will take to reach the limit, is a question of choice.
The fact is that the per capita consumption of developed countries,
is far above a level that can be sustained, for everyone in the planet.
There are three billion people living in BRIC aspiring for the lifestyle of developed countries.
Reduction of consumption is a salient short-term priority.
This is specially true for non-renewable resources.
There needs to be greater investment in renewable energy.
There has to be a commitment to waste reduction.
We need a new economic model, where consumption is not central to growth,
and which gives significant importance to environmental factors.
We need to reuse equipment, and recycle materials.
This requires a radical change of thinking.
In the fifth century two empires, Persia and Rome, dominated the world.
There models were heavily fortified.
That could not prevent marauding invaders.
The empires came to an end.
Poor people migrate in search of food and employment.
We need to learn to manage migration, for the benefit of all.