Series of Blogs While Experiencing U.S.2016 Presidential Election
I am visiting US while the 2016 Presidential election is going on. This series of blogs summarizes my perception of the goings-on as understood and experienced on the ground and media (reading newspapers, seeing TV and online resources). This is a personal account.
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U.S. Presidential Election---Part-1
(Oct 19, 2016)
Republican Presidential nominee : Mr. Donald J. Trump may be in trouble.
Republican Presidential nominee Mr. Donald J. Trump seems to be in trouble facing accusations of sexual harassment and criticism for vulgar and demeaning comments toward women, minorities, and migrant section of the society. Mr. Trump is already the most disliked presidential nominee in the electoral history of polling, and his reputation is unlikely to recover if he continues to peddle conspiracy theories about election fraud and mock the looks of the women who have accused him of sexual assault.
However, much can happen in politics over remaining three weeks, and this election has been full of surprises. But by lashing out at the news media; criticizing Speaker Paul D. Ryan, his party’s highest-ranking official; and claiming without evidence that the electoral system is “rigged, Mr. Trump appears less intent on finding a path to victory than on grasping for scapegoats to explain away an eventual loss.
Everybody has set his/ her eyes on how he and Democratic candidate : Mrs. Clinton approach to today's (19 Oct 2016) debate in Las Vegas and it will go a long way in determining just how sordid the remainder of this race will be — and how difficult the healing process will be once it ends.
At the same time across the country, voters alarmed by the tenor of Mr. Trump’s campaign and the emerging accounts of his personal conduct are engaging in spontaneous, unorganized and inconspicuous acts of protests that take direct aim at perhaps his most prized possession : his Trump-brand name. People are slowly but consistently engaged in scattered retail rebukes of Mr. Trump brand by independent acts of protests. Even many of staunch Republican supporters feel that voting against Mr. Trump would not be a sufficient reproach. They described creative methods of punishing his economic empire and expunging the once-esteemed reminders of him from their lives, closets, golf bags and bookshelves over the past few months. They have thrown out — or cut up — Trump neckties, called off stays at Trump hotels, even stopped imbibing Trump wines .Many have canceled their annual trips to a Trump owned resorts ,dinner inside Trump International Hotel and Towers. Bookings for Trump hotels on its site fell 58 percent during the first half of 2016, compared with the same period a year ago. It may grow further.
The rejection has even extended to brands controlled by Mr. Trump’s children, whom these consumers see as aiding and abetting the candidate they increasingly revile.
In anticipation of Wednesday’s final presidential debate, the Culinary Workers Union is building a wall of taco trucks outside Trump International Hotel, miles away from the University of Nevada, Las Vegas’ s campus – the setting for the showdown between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. The rally aims to have at least five taco trucks as well as a giant banner designed as a wall where members, organizers and participants will be able to write messages and sign their names. While approximately 400 people are expected to rally in the morning on the Las Vegas strip, the trucks will be handing out free tacos in order to support the protest.
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U.S. Presidential Election 2016 as Perceived by A Visitor - Part-II
(October 21, 2016)
Republican Presidential nominee : Mr. Donald J. Trump have been successful in making some more enemies.
Everybody was anxious and has set his / her eyes on the debate Mr. Donald J. Trump and Democratic candidate : Mrs. Hillary Clinton held on 19 Oct 2016 evening in Las Vegas. Republican Presidential nominee Mr. Donald J. Trump seems to be in further trouble the way he carried himself during the debate on various important issues-- very close to chest of Republicans at large. Mrs. Hillary Clinton's comments during the debate on Gun-rights, Women-abortion rights, Social Security and Taxes, minorities, and migrant completely knocked-down her opponent. Mr. Trump was already the most disliked presidential nominee in the U.S. electoral history of polling, and his reputation further went down against unlikely expected recovery because of his continued peddling of conspiracy theories about election frauds and unwilling to accept final outcome of the results, without prejudice.
Mrs. Hillary Clinton for the first time emerged as the clarion-voiced advocate for women whom many liberal women had been longing for — especially the younger voters she had largely left cold throughout the Democratic primaries. Her pleadings on abortion rights, a defining issue for an older generation of feminists, Mrs. Clinton dispensed with Democrats’ longstanding caveat that the ..."procedure should be rare" , and strongly defended women’s right ..." to control their own bodies without government interference."
In contrast to Mr. Trump continued denial of any wrong doings about over sexual assault and harassment, Mrs. Clinton also directly addressed to a new generation of women — and to many young men by saying “ He thinks belittling women makes him bigger. He goes after their dignity, their self-worth, and I don’t think there is a woman anywhere who doesn’t know what that feels like.”
He did not stop on this.... calling Mrs. Hillary Clinton “Nasty Woman”. This insult became a battle- cry for Mrs. Clinton, overnight.— including to many whose passions she had not yet stirred. Next day “Nasty Woman” T-shirts began selling on the internet. More than 8,000 people had taken up the phrase on Twitter by mid afternoon, wielding it as a badge of honor.
Even before Wednesday night’s debate, Mrs. Clinton had been beating Mr. Trump by large margins among probable female voters. Now, the picture is more vivid and clear.
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U.S. Presidential Election 2016 as Perceived by A Visitor - Part-III
(October 26, 2016)
Democratic candidate : Mrs. Hillary Clinton has a 92 % chance of winning the U. S. 2016 Presidential Elections.
When the journey of U.S. Presidential election formally started in June 2016, Republican nominee Mr. Donald J. Trump was not much behind to his Democratic contestant : Mrs. Hillary Clinton in popularity. He had a good start and many of his supporters were sure of his advancements and finally a easy and clear win. His vote share was about 40%,whereas Mrs. Clinton was at 60 %.Now, the current corresponding figures are at 8 % and 92% respectively. For this spectacular performance Mr. Trump had to perform many odds and, thus, annoyed a good mass of conventional Republican-voters, in many of his staunch supporter-states, where Republicans had never faltered. Apart from his mis-managing the opportunities to satisfactorily address the accusations of sexual harassment by about a dozen women and criticism for vulgar and demeaning comments toward women, minorities, and migrant section of the society by simple denial, he was successful in making more enemies after not agreeing un-conditionally to future election- results.
There were some more mis- adventures. According to figures released on last Saturday by his team, Mr. Donald J. Trump entered the homestretch of the campaign at a pronounced financial disadvantage to Mrs. Hillary Clinton, and also far below the self-funding-goals he set for himself earlier in the race. After raising $100 million in partnership with Republican Party organizations in September '16 , Mr. Trump began in October with $75 million in cash on hand. He has so far not followed through on promises to spend $100 million of his own fortune on the campaign. In September, he contributed only $2 million, his usual amount since he became the Republican nominee, leaving him roughly $44 million short of his goal.
Whereas Mrs. Clinton raised $154 million in September' 16 and began October with roughly $150 million in the bank, twice as much as Mr. Trump. Many of the Republican Party’s leading contributors have stayed away from his campaign, signaling his difficulties in persuading party elites to back him. However, there are certain exceptions also. A billionaire and Silicon Valley investor named Peter Thiel offered to putting $1.25 million behind Mr. Trump’s campaign. Still, Mrs. Clinton will have a huge war chest for last-minute advertising and organizing at a time when she has regained her lead in public opinion polls. She is so confident of her financial prowess's, she now requesting her donors to contribute for the senate seats, in many a states.
Mr. Trump also said he would blitz Mrs. Clinton with $100 million in advertising, but he has spent till now about $32 million. Mr. Trump is not starved for cash and could still make additional investments in television and turnout to increase his chances on Nov. 8. But his campaign has been marred by disagreements with Republican organizations in some key states. To be in race of a highly contested election Mr. Trump needs to mobilize all his resources immediately and in full throttle, as still 2 weeks are left to recoup the losses.
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U.S. Presidential Election 2016 as Perceived by A Visitor - Part-IV
(Nov 3, 2016)
Democratic candidate : Mrs. Hillary Clinton has climbed down to mere 87 % chance of winning the current U.S. 2016 Presidential Elections than the 92% a week earlier.
Like any major elections anywhere else in the big democratic-countries, the U.S. Presidential elections are very un-predictable. There are many factors and incidents those have cropped up during the last one week , those make it very un-predictable and a clear cut view almost impossible.
In the last week of October'16, the Federal Bureau of Investigation director : Mr. James B. Comey, an old Republican but appointed by President Obama in 2013, decided to disclose about further inquiries into Mrs. Hillary Clinton's handling of confidential e-mails through her personal server. Democratic Mrs. Hillary Clinton and President Obama were outraged about it and shown their displeasure about the timings of this disclosures. However, although numerous prosecutors and former Department of Justice officials have accused Mr. Comey of violating formal Govt. guidelines and informal norms against commenting on continuing investigations or publicizing political cases just before elections, many voters do not seem to share their indignation. Also many suspect it may have repercussions like water-gate case during Mr. Nixon's presidency. It is very difficult to judge the actual out come as most of the devout voters from either of the two camps must have already made-up their mind and such flimsy issues should have no effect.
Nevertheless, some polls, of course, continue to show a path to victory for republican nominee: Mr. Donald J. Trump. A tracking poll by popular TV channel ABC and The Washington Post, which last week showed Clinton holding a double-digit lead, now finds her and Trump tied at 46 percent. And the University of Southern California / Los Angeles Times "Daybreak" tracking poll, which has consistently shown a better result for Mr. Trump than most other surveys, gave him a 5-point lead, 47.8 percent to 42.4 percent.
The image of Mr. Trump perceived as a successful businessman, crude sexual predator, serial liar and tax dodger, a man with utter contempt for everything and everyone, including those closest to him may be hard to fade away. On the other hand, Mrs. Clinton is also not very clean. Many describe her as a good orator, experienced politician but also a craven : a woman who will take money from anyone, and say almost anything to attain or keep power. She has more experience in government than Trump does, but her record, since she became the Clinton family’s standard-bearer, is of a politician who takes no risks, and avoids difficult decisions — hardly what the US (or the world) needs right now.
Many grumble that It was not just sad, but downright dangerous that the world’s oldest democracy could only produce these two figures to contest for U S's top post. And it is not surprising that they are considered, by some, as the two least popular contestants ever.
How, then, should one pick one of them? Many Americans have struggled with this question for months. It was clear from the onset that abstaining from election would not be an option: this is too important an election for fence-sitting. Here, finally, it boils down for any one is that the prospect of anything getting better, for America or the world, under President Hillary Clinton is relatively positive, but certainly everything will be worse under President Donald Trump.
Many startled minorities and migrants by the utterances of Mr. Trump, have their own strategies. Early and en-block voting is one of the strategies. There are roughly one percent (some 3.3 million) of the U.S. population of Muslims--mostly migrated from Arab and Middle-East countries, living in America. More than one million American Muslims have as recent as in December 2015,got registered to vote in the November 8 U.S. elections, a record number that puts the community in a position to tip the race in states where they live in large numbers . Republican candidate Mr. Donald Trump statement for “a total and complete shutdown” of Muslim immigration, sending shivers across the mostly immigrant Muslim community and it is their answer to his call by the community leaders.
In the last a few decades the demography of many states have completely gone for a spin. It did not change much for the more populous and financially sound states like New York and California--those have already been described as culturally melting-pots. In many of the South Western states, where it had traditional Republican leaning and mostly inhabited by whites, it had dramatically changed. The meet the labor-demands of big agricultural-farms, meat factories, dairies, wooden-furniture and other industries established in these states and growing bigger and bigger with supplying their produce/ products throughout the U.S.A / neighboring Canada more and more migrants , mostly Hispanic came in to fill the gap. The local whites were out-numbered as the younger generation moved on to big cities either seeking for better white-collared jobs or education and low reproduction-rates prevalent among the whites. Some recent polls have found that the Republican leads is among women and higher-income voters, but far their most solid support comes from less educated, lower-income white men. Now it is a question of identity also as many angry white men raise a narrower question : What’s going on with working-class whites? Perhaps even more than economic status, racial, ethnic and cultural identity is becoming a main driver of political choice in these states.It is getting more disturbing as the battle over the purpose and configuration of the American government — what it’s for, who it serves — may become more openly about “us” versus “them,” along ethnic lines.
According to an most recent analysis of the New York Times /CBS poll Mr. Trump is backed by overwhelmingly whites, 43 percent of Republicans with at most a high school education, but only 28 percent of those with bachelor degrees and 21 percent of those with some graduate school. A Quinnipiac University poll last month found results on similar lines. Top leaders in Democrats like President Obama and Bernie Sanders have speculated that frustration over lost jobs and stagnant wages can explain much of the blue-collar support for Mr. Trump. Many white Americans are most likely drawn to Mr. Trump’s xenophobic, anti-immigrant message because they agree with it. Their fear is understandable. In general, the concerns of Hispanic and black American voters are often different from those of white voters. But the reaction of whites who are struggling economically raises the specter of an outright political war along racial and ethnic lines over the distribution of resources and opportunities.
Racial animosity has long helped foster a unique mistrust of government among white Americans who own a wrong notion that it serve the people most who do not look like them, whereas Nonwhite American mostly like what the government does.
But to win of a highly contested election like this both Mr. Trump and Mrs. Clinton need to mobilize all their resources immediately and in fast forward mode as only less than a weeks is left to do or die
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U.S. Presidential Election---Part-V (Final) -- U.S. Again missed to smash the Glass Ceiling.
(Nov 12, 2016)
Republican Presidential nominee : Mr. Donald J. Trump , a Billionaire Real Estate Mogul , but with almost nil experience in the conventional politics, is the 45th President-Elect of USA. The news came as a shock to almost everyone; pleasant for few, not so for others. Such is the personality of the 45th President of the United States; you can love him or hate him but you cannot simply ignore him. His rival Democratic contestant : Mrs. Hillary Clinton, a woman, lost the race.
USA as a nation, again failed and missed the opportunity to break the glass ceiling by electing a woman President. In its democratic-history of 228 years, since 1788 AD when the US constitution was approved , women were always at receiving end. They had patiently waited and were given voting-rights as late as in 1920, even much later than the non-white-males voting-rights in 1870. With the current total US population of 324.7 Million, mostly educated, living high living-standards in cities with better infra-structure, education, health-care and have fair access to different form of media (print, electronic, broad-band etc.) with 72 % urbanization, about 72.4 % Whites and about 52% Women voters component (males are 48%) , Mrs. Hillary Clinton---a woman contestant from Democratic Party could not make it to electoral college with a small fraction of casted-votes (less than 0.25% approx.), even with higher popular-vote percentage of 48 plus %. Her winning-contestant had about 1% less popular-vote at 47%. It is not unusual in American political history as it happened earlier the same way in 2000 with Mr. Al Gore. USA will have to wait for a while for this special opportunity to happen to have a woman President.
Born in 1946 in a family of a New York Business Tycoon: Fred and Mary Trump, with 5 siblings new presidential-nominee: Mr. Donald J Trump enjoyed a ‘well-privileged’ childhood in Jamaica Estates, Queens, an outskirt in New York City. His personality completely fits to a superhero Iron Man, who describes himself as “flamboyant, billionaire playboy". After his early education in Queens, New York due to behavioral problems he was shifted to Military Academy (NYMA) at the age of 13 . Subsequently, Trump joined Fordham University in the Bronx followed by a graduate course in economics from Wharton School of Finance and Commerce at the University of Pennsylvania, where he took a special course on real-estate studies during his graduation.
Many could not swallow Trump's triumph. Many TV news channels and famous News Paper ' The New York Times ' reported on 9th November that thousands of protesters , mainly young students, faculty, men and women took to the streets on 8th November in at least 10 cities to march against president-elect Donald . Protests were underway in Chicago, New York, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Boston, Washington, D.C., Portland, Ore., St. Paul, Minn. and several other cities. An estimated 2,000 protesters shouted angrily in downtown Seattle, Washington expressing their frustration at the Trump's victory over Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton by electoral votes of 279 to 228 . In Los Angeles, protesters poured into the streets near City Hall chanting "Not My President" and "No Racist USA " and torched a giant Trump effigy, In Oakland, California protesters smashed window pans and put to fire garbage bins. In Washington, D.C., hundreds took to the streets carrying signs saying “Nasty Women Fight Back” and “White Males for Equality for All.” The protest continued since last 3 nights and spread on a large scale to more cities like New York, Philadelphia, Boston, Atlanta, Portland, where it went violent at some places, burning, smashing car windscreens against Trump’s divisive rhetoric, local media said. The New York Times reported 11 people had been arrested as of late Friday in New York. Demonstrations also occurred in Detroit, Michigan; Dallas, Texas; Memphis, Tennessee; Orlando, Florida; and Raleigh, North Carolina. Demonstrators said they wanted to show solidarity with those they felt may be targeted by Trump’s policies once he takes office in January, including Mexicans and Muslims. Miles long protests choked the free- ways and the city administration had to deploy thousands of force to maintain law and order. Defeated contestant Senator Hillary Clinton pleaded to people to maintain calm and the President Barak Obama made ferment appeals to the nation for peaceful transfer of power.
Meanwhile, many electoral frauds were also reported in this election in various part of the country. These included like missing names of thousand of Democrat's supporter from the electoral-roll, small number of polling stations compared to the large registered voter' s strength, voting-sites running of ballots etc. At one polling site in Arizona's Maricopa county there were only 60 polling booths ,compared to 200 in 2012 election at the same place; at the Church of the Nazarene, there were more than 600 voters in line when polls were declared closed at 7 p.m. In downtown Phoenix, voters were still waiting in line at midnight. One voter of Phoenix, told AZ Central that in 25 years he had never waited more than 15 minutes to vote. On 8th Nov'16 he was in line for 3 1/2 hours. Some voting sites also ran out of ballots, and election officials had to rush to get more ballots to the site just in time. At the Church of the Beatitudes, voters had been waiting in line for three hours when they were told that the site had run out of ballots. A small box of ballots arrived later. Similar stories were also reported from other places also.
Many think the en block voting in large numbers was result of incumbency of two terms of Democratic President Mr. Obama administration, where many big changes were promised, but could not be done, largely because of non-cooperation by the Republicans in the senate/ house of representatives. Mostly low/ in-educated , whites , low paid blue collared , males from the mostly country side or small towns voters were responsible for the surge of Republican votes making way for Mr. Trump's win. Some feel in place of Mrs. Clinton as presidential candidate Mr. Bernie Sanders, whether an independent or a Democrat , would have been a better choice and he had a great chance to win against Trump. People are not only sorry & reserve delusion, be anxious, furious but also feeling cheated as the values for which they stood all their life are getting to drain and reversed.
It seems to be a fight between two just different and opposite value-system and declared-policies. The forces who succeed in U.K. during the recent ' Britexit' are almost the same in American politics also. The Obama tenure deemed more 'Left-leaning', about all, integration, universal, cohesive, composite society supporting globalization, Human rights, without preferences or segregation on the basis of color, ethnicity, gender....mostly basic human values. The another is more promises 'center-right-leaning' , out right for " shut-close-society " , protective, talking about " me " and "you ", clear division on grounds of color, origin or nativity, culture.... making way for "white-supremacy". It had repercussions. In many places in different forms...in some class rooms, school's canteens, play grounds a few students have started bullying others from other ethnicity. They took it as their license to show their superiority and mis-treat. Though all big leaders from both sides are pleading with the general public for coming together, cohesion and united efforts to make USA great again, it would take a while before the anger cools down. Probably it would never cool down permanently.
Mr. Trump during electioneering said repeatedly " He was coming down here to 'drain the swamp' and he was going to not let the corporate elite run the country anymore ". Our hope is that part of his promise be true. But, it is sure the change will be complex and costly. He repeatedly told his voters during the campaign to fix the America and its woes by shutting-down the Environmental Protection Agency and repealing the Affordable Care Act. He said the Education Department is “massive, and it can be largely eliminated.” He has made the federal work force of 2.8 million employees a target, declaring that “you have tremendous waste, fraud, and abuse.”But he has largely avoided specifics about cuts he might make, and much of his agenda imagines changes that would require huge increases in federal spending : tripling the number of border patrol agents; supplying the military with more warships and fighter jets; increasing spending on infrastructure; undertaking new efforts to confront cyber-terrorism; and aggressively working to remake trade policies. The moot question is "Whether he would be able to do them and so fast ? ". And where the resources would come from? A law professor at Harvard University Jody Freeman explains " He doesn’t possess the executive power to reorganize the government at whim ” “There are some minor things presidents can do, in terms of creating new offices in cabinet agencies. But the notion that he can single-handedly abolish agencies is fanciful.”
Many are worried. Donald J Trump is now elected president. Will he and his family permanently sever all connections to the Trump Organization, a sprawling business empire that has spread a secretive financial web across the world? Or will Trump instead choose to be the most conflicted president in American history, one whose business interests will constantly jeopardize the security of the United States? Throughout this campaign, the Trump Organization, which pumps potentially hundreds of millions of dollars into the Trump family’s bank accounts each year, has been largely ignored. As a private enterprise, its businesses, partners and investors are hidden from public view, even though they are the very people who could be enriched by—or will further enrich. The ball has just started rolling. The Philippine President Rodrigo Duterete, who recently during G-20, in disgust once said "President Obama.. go to hell", made a big move. He appointed a chairman of one of Mr. Trump's business partners in Manila -- Century Properties Group, Mr. Jose E. A. Antonio his envoy to Washington DC for Trade, Investment and Economics Affairs of Philippines. The company is building a 57 story apartment complex in metropolitan Manila, besides other business interests.
The other two members of North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), an agreement signed by Canada, Mexico, and the United States, on January 1, 1994,creating a trilateral trade bloc in North America are in peril after emergence of Mr. Trump, as Presidential nominee and his declared policies of " America first" and "Buy America" and " re-negotiation of NAFTA". About 20% of Canada's GDP comes from manufacturing and specific export to U.S.A. With changed policies by Trump it may create a big uncertainty and social problems there. Mexico is also scared.
Similarly the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) or Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA), a trade agreement among twelve of the Pacific Rim countries signed by Brunei, Chile, New Zealand, Singapore, Australia, Canada, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, the United States, and Vietnam—notably not including China was concluded after seven years of negotiations. The finalized proposal was signed on 4 February 2016 in Auckland, New Zealand. It is currently awaiting ratification by U.S. congress to enter into force. The aims of the agreement is to "promote economic growth; support the creation and retention of jobs; enhance innovation, productivity and competitiveness; raise living standards; reduce poverty in the signatories' countries; and promote transparency, good governance, and enhanced labor and environmental protections. Mr. Trump has denied to rectify the TPPA during his election campaigns. If done so it would certainly be good for both China and India on the long terms.
There are many more issues in the store, which are capable to put the U.S.A. in spin. Fate of NATO , Security and Safety , Syria , Immigration from neighboring and other countries, Religious Minority, Women's right to abortion, Gun's right, Privacy rights, Freedom of expression, Rights of Disabled, re-doing Tax System etc. are a few out of many issues, which the new Presidency shall have to find a suitable reply acceptable to the America of 21st century.
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