Don't Squeeze the Balls Any Further--It is not going to Help !
by
Dr. A. K. Srivastava, Sep 2017
Doclam or no Doclam, it is not going to be easy and help any further .The almost sure tussle, leading to short skirmishes between the two nuclear-powered neighbors : India and China on the North-Eastern border of India-China-Bhutan borders is temporarily seems to be scuttled, after a face to face standoff for about 72 days, when armies of both the countries were in alert mode and starring at each other, within 500 meters distance. China, U.S.A., India, Russia, South Korea, Japan and many more were anxiously waiting for a resolution of the situation, because it had a potential to mark heavy dent on the world political scenario and make large economic waves and, hence, counter-effects on the entire world. The situation was so complex, interests of every country, every individuals were so inter-mingled and inter-woven that a single solution, acceptable to all, was not seen coming forthwith in near future. China has its own internal compulsions with the ruling Communist Party major elections due in November 2017, falling GDP, thousands of industries being closed on account of technological-redundancy, low demands, rising costs of production due to increased labor and raw material costs and disgruntlement in masses of growing un-employment and fall in living standards. China's policy of expansionism, both in sea and land ; having border-dispute troubles with almost all neighbors, heavy defense expenditure, low return on big investments in many sectors and over all national policy of " Dadagiri"-- aggression creating fear of large economy, military-infrastructure and big army.
At the same time the world is anxiously looking awe fully towards the harder verbal exchanges and ever threatening postures of both North Korea and U.S.A. North Korea has recently tested its sixth inter-continental ballistic missiles ( ICBM) and finally a nuclear Hydrogen bombs, all in a row...the last being claimed to be a more lethal Thermal Hydrogen Bomb and much devastating than its previous versions.
Since 2006, the year the North Korea conducted its first nuclear test, three consecutive U.S. Presidents have had all hopes and assumptions that they could be able to rain-in at North Korea with the help of China, who have has good economic and geo-political cozy relations between the two neighboring communist countries. It did not work and flopped all the times. President George W. Bush, Barack Obama, and now Donald J. Trump and their think tank---have invested all their hopes and strategies that Chine would come to their rescue, but it all in vain.US has a limit , also like China has, to which it can pressurize to take actions by imposing still harsher sanctions on North Korea.US is pressurizing to China for more sanctions banning export of Petroleum and its products and other military hard ware to North Korea. It would have limited effects, as North Korea is a country, who in last many decades , braving the world sanctions, have mastered the art of living in pecuniary. In 2003 China snapped completely pipe-supply of Petrol, Diesel and other petroleum products to North Korea for three days, which had virtually no effects on them , other than it antagonized a communist neighbor country. China feels that repeated sanctions can temporarily make dent on North Korea's economy beyond that it shall becomes counter-productive, thus, they cannot agree to sign on their own death warrants. In retaliation North Korea sees its weapons as essential to its survival, and tests as necessary to fine tune them .Thus, it would be their last thing to give up the independent nuclear capability. North Korea may be a weak and small state but it has more leverage because of its willingness to take more risks. After Russian subsidies dried out in 1990s, after disintegration of Russia a famine in North Korea wiped out about 10% of their population. You cannot push a cat beyond the wall, without risking a fatal violent response.
Chinese President Mr. Xi , like his predecessors, resisted punishing sanctions that might cause North Korea’s collapse and lead to a destabilizing war on its border, a refugee crisis in China’s economically vulnerable northeast, or a unified Korean Peninsula controlled by American forces. All these possibilities could pose as much a problem for China’s plans for ascendancy in Asia as an arms race in the region. And if North Korea somehow survived, it would remain on China’s border, angry and aggrieved.
For decades US tried their best to persuade, induce and occasionally coerced Israel to change its policies towards Palestinians. Israeli leaders gladly accepted US aids and doles, ignored American demands and , in show of calibrated defiance, occasionally went ahead announcing new settlement's construction matching on visit of high US leaders and officials. US could not do much. In another instance with total and complete US embargo on Cuba in 1960s, its one time ally and neighbor , not only help Fidel Castro to survive and rule Cuba for more than fifty years, in complete defiance of US, but even without Russian-support, after its disintegration.
In a war, given the size and capacity of US arsenals, it can flatten North Korea overnight, but it would spark a conflict risking millions of Koreans, Japanese and American lives, which nobody wants such option, including US. Though, it is theoretically possible but not practical. It is because of this US is simply issuing threats since decades, but unable to do much. Beijing is simply trapped. Each North Korean provocation brings the war near to China's border, inviting American build up in China; s backyard, pushing South Korea and Japan further in American lap, leave aside loss of North Korea as an angry, disgruntled and wounded neighbor and big business with them.
In 1950, Mao sent more than one million Chinese soldiers, including his own son, into the Korean War to help the North fight the United States. By the time the armistice was signed three years later, more than 400,000 Chinese troops had been killed and wounded, a sacrifice in blood that one might have expected to forge a lasting loyalty between the two countries. It did not happen. Years after , Chinese still have a grudge of disloyalty against North Koreans. For the most part, Mao tolerated North Korea’s displays of disloyalty because he was afraid of losing it to the Soviet Union, which was the North’s main economic benefactor and provided it with aid that Mao could not match.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, though, China enjoyed more room to maneuver. In 1992, seeking trade, it established diplomatic relations with South Korea, infuriating the North, which was suddenly poorer and more isolated than ever.
China now imports more goods from South Korea than it does from any other country, while the South counts China as its largest market for both exports and imports.
In current scenario China has more nuclear-armed neighbors than any country in the world: Russia, India, Pakistan and now North Korea. But that situation is partly one of its own making.
India had tested its first nuclear bomb in 1974. India's next door neighbor Pakistan wanted to keep up with India. China viewed India as a potential threat; the two had fought a brief border war in 1962. So it agreed to help Pakistan. The origins of North Korea’s nuclear program can be traced to a deal in 1976 between an ailing Mao Zedong and Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, then the prime minister of Pakistan. Father of Pakistan's nuclear program : Dr. A. Q. Khan, during his China visit to Mao’s funeral ironed out the details.
In 1982, China shipped weapons-grade uranium to Pakistan. And in 1990, it opened its Lop Nur test site to Pakistan and secretly let the Pakistan test its first nuclear bomb there. The United States, upset by China’s behavior persuaded it to sign the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty in 1992.But Beijing’s recognition of the risks of proliferation came slowly, and the genie was already out of the bottle. In 1998, when India conductedfive nuclear tests, Pakistan responded with a public test of its own less than three weeks later.
At about the same time, Pakistan was sharing nuclear enrichment technology with North Korea — including centrifuges, parts, designs and fuel essentials for its nuclear bombs — in exchange for Korean missile technology and design help. Some analysts argue that Beijing was complicit in the deal, either encouraging Pakistan to share nuclear technology with North Korea or looking the other way as it happened.
It is fair to assume that North Korea wouldn’t be where it is today without its earlier nuclear trade with Pakistan and Chinese officials were fully aware of the situation, given the strong ties between the Pakistani and Chinese nuclear establishments. Many believe that while there is no doubt that China helped Pakistan acquire the bomb, Beijing would not have wanted that know-how passed on to North Korea.
In the nut-shell China wants a status-quae to continue, so its relations with both South and North Koreas, USA, Japan and India be intact, at least at the current level. It could be contradictory to many and un achievable. We will have to wait and watch as the fate of some of most powerful persons and countries are depending upon the outcome of this tug of war.
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