Jan Keil

Selected Working Papers

Payment Firms, Cryptocurrencies, and CBDCs, with Tobias Berg (Goethe University Frankfurt), Felix Martini (Frankfurt School of Finance), Manju Puri (Duke and NBER)

Revise & Resubmit at the Journal of Finance (2025)

Stock prices of U.S. payment firms fall as a reaction to news about the Digital Euro, while those of Europeans rise. Bank stocks do not react. This emphasizes the medium-of-exchange function of CBDCs and points to a novel geopolitical dimension: enhanced autonomy in payments.

"Buy Now, Pay Later" and Impulse Shopping, with Valentin Burg (Humboldt University)

Submitted (2025)

Randomized BNPL availability increases purchases among those customers for which economic theory suggests a greater propensity for impulsive behavior. Such customers also default more and face more late fees. However, the online shop in our setting does not target them with higher approval rates. Rational responses to maturity and interest changes that alter the economic value of BNPL are weaker.

Selected Publications

The Economics of “Buy Now, Pay Later”: A Merchant’s Perspective, with Tobias Berg (Goethe University Frankfurt), Valentin Burg (Humboldt University), Manju Puri (Duke and NBER)

Journal of Financial Economics (2025)

Merchants can use "buy now, pay later" to price discriminate. Access to data and technology allows this in real time and for baskets of small ticket items. Offering free finance lowers prices particularly for low-score customers. Sales increase by 20%, mechanism can explain popularity worldwide.

Bank Branching Deregulation and the Syndicated Loan Market, with Karsten Müller (Princeton)

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis (2020)

Changes in banking regulation have unintended and undocumented side effects on the market for corporate credit. Bank branching deregulation following the Riegle-Neal Interstate Branching and Banking Efficiency Act of 1994 decreased syndicated loan issuance but spurred bilateral lending to corporations. This shift is also reflected in interest rate spreads, pointing to a supply-driven substitution effect. Results suggest that changes to banking regulation can affect not just the amount but also type of credit in the economy.

The Demise of Branch Banking - Technology Consolidation, Bank Fragility, with Steven Ongena (University of Zurich)

Journal of Banking and Finance (2024)

We explore which explanations for the reduction of bank branches are supported by the data. While technology is associated with de-branching of banks across countries, economic factors like growth or bank fragility and consolidation of banks are more robustly linked to reduced branching in US counties and on the branch level in the US.

Have Banks Caught Corona? Effects of COVID on Lending in the US, with Thorsten Beck (Florence School of Banking and Finance, EUI; CEPR)

Journal of Corporate Finance (2022)

Banks with a greater deposit footprint in areas hit by COVID experience a significantly greater deterioration of their loan portfolios. Interestingly we observe that more exposed lenders provide more paycheck protection grants to borrowers in general - not just for those in more affected areas. They also reduce regular small business bank loans (pointing to a substitution) and offer worse terms in the syndicated loan market.

Lending Relationships when Creditors are in Control

Journal of Corporate Finance (2023) [WP] [BibTeX]

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