palin

The first rule of political campaigns is “do no harm.”  This means watch what you say and do, and always be prepared to defend your actions with tact and great care.  With the nomination of Governor Sarah Palin (Alaska-R), Republican presidential candidate John McCain has violated this very important rule.  Let me lay out why by stating the harms and giving some background on each.

1.  The experience attack against Senator Obama is out the door for the Republicans:  While Palin is a governor, at the time of her nomination she had less than 2 years experience in that executive position. Prior to her current office she served as mayor of Wasilla, AK.  She has never served in any national capacity, she has never campaigned nationally, and she has never served in a national position within her party.   The McCain campaign argues that her lack of experience in Washington makes her an excellent choice, which might actually be true if it were not for the fact that the Senator has been attacking Obama on his lack of experience in Washington.  Even if one concedes that experience no longer matters, then it helps Obama, and not Palin.  Obama has done over 22 debates, raised over $200 million, and campaigned nationally for almost 2 years.  Palin has 2 months to be perfect. 

Also, Palin has admitted she knows little about the job of the VP.  In a TV interview with Larry Kudlow at the beginning of August, she said (Quote), “I still can’t answer that question [about accept the VP] until somebody answers for me what is it exactly that the VP does every day? I’m used to being very productive and working real hard in an administration. We want to make sure that that VP slot would be a fruitful type of position, especially for Alaskans and for the things that we’re trying to accomplish up here for the rest of the U.S., before I can even start addressing that question.” (UnQuote).  This will be played over and over again, and is already receiving millions of hits on YouTube.

2.  She has not had the best electoral success:  This point speaks directly to her viability (can she win) and electability (has she won).  Governor Palin ran, and lost her bid for Lieutenant Governor in 2002.  She also was considered for the U.S. Senate seat of Frank Murkowski, who resigned in 2002, but Murkowski selected his daughter instead.  Palin did win her mayor seat handily, and won the governorship by 8% (about 17,000 votes), but winning in a home state in Alaska is not the same as winning in, say Florida.  For instance, she is for drilling in the arctic refuge of Alaska, which won’t go over well in environmentally careful states.

3.  She can’t win the foreign policy argument at all:  According to media reports, Governor Palin has been out of the country 1 time.  The media will quiz her on the most remote locations, and the most obscure political leaders.  Moreover, she has criticized the president for not having an exit strategy in Iraq.  Since she’s not a national politician she has no formal voting record, however, the media will spin any sound bites to make her and McCain seem at odds, and if she now agrees with him, then she’s a flip-flopper (which I don’t think is bad…but the media do).  Her son enlisted in the Army on September 11, 2007, and will deploy to Iraq on the same date in 2008, which may turn her interest to Iraq.  However, bringing up the topic of Iraq doesn’t benefit the campaign, nor does it make her seem to be an objective viewer of the war.  She can be attacked as hawkish and out of touch.   Even if Joe Biden, the Democratic VP nominee, seems to be too hard on her, the public will not vote for her as 2nd in line for the presidency just because they feel sorry for her.  Biden has more foreign policy experience than John McCain so it would have been better to pull in a Tom Ridge who could both help in PA and extol his experience as head of Homeland Security.

4.  She’s socially conservative, but her daughter is not:  It was discovered that Governor Palin’s daughter, who is still in high school and 17 and unmarried, is pregnant.  The father of her child is an 18 year old male from Wassila.  Now, the issue here is not about the daughter so much as it is about John McCain’s judgment.  According to his own staff, he knew about this situation and felt that it did not disqualify her from the nomination.  McCain must have known this would be hard on the Palin family because the media would pounce on the idea that a social conservative would have a teenage pregnancy in her own home. Palin does believe in abstinence education, and receives government funds to support such a program in school.  Thus, the harm is that there is a conflict between what she promotes and what exists.  Nuances aside, the average American will see a conflict.  And, many women will say that McCain’s willingness to nominate Palin or Palin’s acceptance of the nomination was self-serving and not fair to the daughter.

The political frame where this will really hurt McCain and Palin is not the “teen pregnancy” angle, but the “unprotected sex” idea and imagery.  There’s no doubt that accidents happen and mistakes are made, but the fact (and it is a fact) that the daughter had unprotected sex provides lots of ammunition for the media and the antagonists of the Republican ticket. Again, teen pregnancy is a "mistake" but unprotected sex is "irresponsible."  Also, wait until the media finds about about the 18 year old guy who is the father (he's a self-proclaimed "redneck" and there are pics of him on the web toting big guns). He will be the most popular son-in-law in the nation, and the media will make him the Rev. Wright of the family.

Obama has openly said that families are off limits, and children are “especially, off limits.” However, the media has no incentive to do what Obama says to protect another candidate.    Also, pay close attention to how many will call upon Obama to do more to censor attacks on the Palin family, although they thoroughly expected Obama to hold his own when he was attacked.  Palin should come out immediately and show that she can handle the media’s attention to the issue and not rely on any protectionism in terms of gender or what may be called “attack politics.” She is after all running for the Vice Presidency of the United States. 

Lastly, watch how Republicans and conservatives will rally around the daughter, but if you look back at their past comments about young entertainers (e.g., Brittany Spears), you'll see the double standard. No need to even get into the racial differences. 

5.  Palin has a slightly different energy and environmental policy visions/record than McCain’s:  First, and most importantly, while McCain believes that global warming is a problem and that we should do something about it, Palin believes that global warm is NOT human made.  Secondly, she opposes listing polar bears as endangered despite all the scientific and anecdotal evidence that their habitats are being destroyed by global warming.  The media will easily identify these differences and pounce on them. Who doesn’t love the polar bear?

6.  No one knows who she is, which allows for stereotypes:  Social psychologists know that stereotypes are most likely to occur in what are called “low information” settings. That is, in situations where the gathering of facts is cumbersome and time consuming.  By choosing an unknown candidate McCain has opened the door for people to use information outside of the fact.  The low information settings highlights Palin’s personal attributes (e.g., her hair, her appearance, her glasses, her love of guns, and her 5 children) and works to the same detriment as the low information about Obama.  While stereotyping candidates can be viewed as counterproductive and undemocratic, it is also a natural human reasoning process that is tied to affect (likes and dislikes) and emotions (anger, frustration, excitement, resentment).   The cast of Saturday Night Live is already preparing Tina Fey for this role (see, I told you), and can you image Fey and Amy Poehler (who played Hillary Clinton during the Democratic primaries) in skits every Saturday over the next two months.

7. There are much better qualified candidates, especially much better women candidates:  The first choice for a female VP who IS qualified is undoubtedly Olympia Snow (R-Maine) who has been in office since 1995.  She has national prominence, has served on the Senate Armed Services Committee (commander in chief credentials) and the Senate Finance Committee (economic credentials), and is highly respected by independents, a group targeted by the McCain campaign.  Passing over Snowe and other female Republican Senators like Kay Bailey Hutchinson (Texas), Elizabeth Dole (North Carolina), or Susan Collins (Maine), may be a problem when they must support her publicly while disagreeing on some social and economic issues.  As Obama learned early in his campaign, within group resentment does not go away easily when political power is involved.

Aside from other female choices, I felt Charles Christ (Florida Governor) and Tom Ridge (from PA) would have helped McCain much more.  The McCain campaign liked Palin’s conservative credentials, but these individuals were not going to vote Democrat anyway, and by gaining conservatives you lose independents who “were” going to vote for McCain.

So, why did McCain pick Palin?  According to advisors close to the campaign, McCain wanted to select Lieberman, but religious conservatives said they would never accept him because of his pro abortion-rights stance.  So, McCain stuck to the brand of "maverick Republican" and chose someone to shake up the ticket. 

8.  She’s [already] under investigation:  In July of this year, Palin fired (or “dismissed”) the Public Safety Commissioner Walter Monegan.  Monegan claims he was fired (or “dismissed”) because he did not fire Palin’s former brother-in-law, Mike Wooten, who was an Alaska State Trooper.  Wooten had apparently threatened Palin’s father and was in a nasty divorce and child custody process during the period.  The Alaska Legislature hired an independent investigator to get to the bottom of the matter, and Palin has since hired an attorney to defend her and the office.  While everyone is innocent until proven guilty, see point #6 above, and consider that Alaska Senator Ted Stevens is also under investigation, and the Bush administration has a reputation for abusing its powers.  Why give more fuel to these depictions given the 1st rule of “do no harm.”

9.  Since when do social conservatives play the gender card? This brings group politics into the Republican campaign when it’s not even a major part of the party:  There are fewer female Republican Governors and Senators, than there are Democrat females in the same offices.  This may be an historic moment for women—Palin is the first ever female Republic on a presidential ticket—but it remains to be seen how successful conservatives will feel about making gender an issue.  There’s little doubt that Palin should be considered “successful” as a transformative political figure in the state of Alaska, but the more I watch other Republican men and women attack any male Democratic figure who says anything negative against Palin, I wonder how long this can last.  There are two potential roads for the gender card in this election. Either the Republican party will realize that they must take up the equity cause on the part of women, or there will be some sort of quasi-reverse discrimination argument that women deserve equity on the basis of merit, but you can’t question the merit.  How will this gender card play at the local and state level?  The answer is still out there.

10.  Trust me, her church, and it’s leadership will soon become an issue: Social conservatives always face this challenge.  Remember, it doesn’t matter if it’s true or relevant, it just has to be newsworthy. The harm is that the national media will spend the time on her church that the local and Alaskan media did not. Soon, her pastor's remarks will be on the front page of major newspapers. 

Okay, I’ll stop at those nine (or more) reasons why Palin’s was NOT the best choice for MCain.  Basically, she allows for more harm that other options.  I’m willing to bet you will not find one smart Republican who will say she is the “most qualified” person for the job of Vice Presidency.  The more Republicans rally around Palin the more they become tied to her candidacy, which can be dangerous.  Every single sound bite, smile, movement, and past footage will be analyzed about Palin, and the media already have snoops on the ground in her hometown asking about her children, her past.  She has 2 months to handle this pressure, much of which will put her on the defensive and leave the campaign working to defend, rather than promote her. 

Many commentators have said that the Democrats will have to be careful to not be seen as belittling or talking down to Palin.  This argument has some merit, however, she will have to defend herself and not wind up going against her conservative views of individualism (i.e., hard work and self-reliance).  When Biden makes comments about her, she might retaliate with statements about how she’s worked hard to get where she is, and she’s running on her record.  Then, this will open the door to examine her record, none of which is national and much of which is controversial and in contrast to McCain’s current positions.  Right now, Palin is being handled with kid gloves but once the hurricanes have passed, and the focus on the campaign picks up, it’s going to get very hot in the kitchen.

This is just may analysis of the situation, and everyone is encouraged to vote their preference.

David C. Wilson