02. Scenarios and abatement

Greenhouse gas emissions, decomposed according to the Kaya Identity, per country, 1970-2014

Data are from World Bank, CDIAC and British Petroleum. Visualized by Richard Tol.

Jonathan Gilligan's R package to do much the same.

Data sources GPDE code

Actual change in global energy efficiency and change needed to stabilize emissions (click on graph for enlarged view).

Actual change in global carbon efficiency and change needed to stabilize emissions (click on graph for enlarged view).

Emission scenarios

World population as observed and as projected (click on graph for enlarged view).

Global average per capita income as observed and as projected (click on graph for enlarged view).

Global average energy intensity as observed and as projected (click on graph for enlarged view).

Global average carbon intensity as observed and as projected (click on graph for enlarged view).

Projections are from the IPCC’s Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). Values are indexed so that 1990=1. The scenarios cover the period 1990-2100, observations 1970-2010. These scenarios were implemented with six alternative models. The figures show the mean plus or minus twice the standard deviation across these models. Observation are black, A1 brown, A2 blue, B1 orange, and B2 green. For population, A1 and B1 coincide.

Fossil fuel reserves and resources (click on graph for enlarged view).

Carbon dioxide contained in fossil fuel reserves and resources (click on graph for enlarged view).

Carbon dioxide concentrations implied by fossil fuel reserves and resources (click on graph for enlarged view).