In the modern electronic-age, models of departmental academic-success may be evolving for two reasons:
(i) the changing economics of information-transfer is causing all information-industries to re-define their models, and
(ii) as far as specialists in any given field are concerned, the globe has shrunk enough that the risk of specialty conflicts of interest may be non-negligible.
One set of models & surprises to consider in this context might be the following, and what else?
Related references:
Max Planck (1949) "Scientific Autobiography and Other Papers" (translated by F. Gaynor, published by Philosophical Library, NY, NY) pp. 33-34 is cited on page 151 in Thomas Kuhn's "The structure of scientific revolutions" as saying that "a new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it".
T. S. Kuhn (1962) The Structure of Scientific Revolutions (U. Chicago Press, Chicago IL).
John A. Nagle (2002,2005) Learning to eat soup with a knife: Counterinsurgency lessions from Malaya and Vietnam (U. Chicago Press, Chicago & London).