The autonomous train market is projected to reach USD 18.9 billion by 2030 from USD 13.6 billion in 2024 at a CAGR of 5.7%. The need for rapid mass transit to reduce traffic congestion and journey time with enhanced safety has increased the demand for the autonomous train market globally. Autonomous trains promise enhanced safety by reducing the risk of human error, which is a leading cause of train accidents. These systems can detect obstacles, monitor track conditions, and respond to emergencies faster than human operators. For instance, Rio Tinto's AutoHaul project in Western Australia, which operates fully autonomous trains for hauling iron ore, has significantly improved safety by eliminating the potential for human error in train operations.
Autonomous trains can optimize operations by maintaining consistent speeds, reducing energy consumption, and optimizing routing. This leads to improved schedule adherence and overall efficiency in transportation networks. By eliminating the need for human drivers, autonomous trains can reduce labor costs and increase productivity. Additionally, these systems can optimize maintenance schedules, leading to lower maintenance costs over time.
Autonomous trains can contribute to environmental sustainability by optimizing energy usage, reducing emissions, and promoting modal shift from road to rail transport. The Metro L9/L10 in Barcelona, Spain, employs driverless trains powered by renewable energy sources, which helps reduce carbon emissions and environmental impact compared to traditional diesel-powered trains.
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Continuous advancements in sensors, artificial intelligence, and connectivity enable the development of more sophisticated autonomous train systems, capable of handling complex tasks and adapting to dynamic operating conditions. The Autonomous Rapid Transit (ART) system in Zhuzhou, China, integrates AI technologies to operate driverless electric trams, demonstrating the feasibility of autonomous urban transportation solutions. These drivers collectively contribute to the growth and adoption of autonomous train technology across various segments of the rail industry, from freight to passenger transport.
High speed rail/Bullet train segment of the market is projected to grow at the CAGR of 6.7% during the forecast period. Passenger and train safety concerns are increasing, the high speed rail/bullet train segment is anticipated to grow at the highest rate in the market. The bullet or high-speed rail has a minimum speed of 200 km/h (120 mph) and is designed to travel at a faster pace than conventional rail. These trains are widely used to link major cities and are considered as a crucial means of both high-speed passenger and freight transit.
For instance, in 2021, China developed a freight train in 2021 that can travel at 350 km/h, making it the fastest freight transport train in existence. The train operates at higher speeds than conventional trains, so safety is of the highest priority. The market for autonomous high-speed rail and bullet train trains is anticipated to expand as a result of a further advantage of lower operating expenses. Besides there are several upcoming high-speed rail/bullet train projects which will provide traction to the market and push the growth. For instance, in February 2024, Alstom has announced the production work of Chennai metro (India). The project includes supply of 36 metro trainsets, equipped with a 25 KV power supply and each comprising three cars, with a running speed of 80 km/h. Thus, helps to boost the autonomous train market over the forecast period.
Communication/Computer-based Train Control (CBTC) Due to advantages like real-time train control information, which raises line capacity and improves the volume of trains operating on the same line, the communication/computer-based train control (CBTC) segment is predicted to lead the autonomous train market over the forecast period. Automatic Train Control (ATC) enhances traffic flow and energy consumption, which is key contributors to the train's increasing demand over the forecast period. It automatically translates the computed energy-optimized trip profile into precise control commands for the propulsion and braking systems of the train. It serves to automate regular operations, ensuring uniform speed among all trains and adherence to an optimized speed profile, thus minimizing delays. Thus, real time optimization boost the communication/computer-based train control segment.
North America region of the market is projected to grow at the CAGR of 5.3% during the forecast period. With a vast transcontinental rail network, North America offers a varied transportation network. The region's smart transportation and smart city initiatives are being developed as a result of the increased use of cutting-edge technologies. As a result, demand for driverless trains is going to grow in years to come. Regarding the deployment of autonomous train technology, the North American market has been incredibly open and competitive. This area has responded strongly to embracing the most recent developments in technology. Leading domestic manufacturers in the North American autonomous train market are Bombardier (Canada), GE Transportation (US), and CalAmp (US). The US government has implemented many regulations aimed at enhancing the safety of the country's railways. This has consequently led to a rise in research and development (R&D) activities by both domestic and foreign manufacturers of railway rolling stock and technology.
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