The automotive transmission market is estimated to grow from USD 62.4 billion in 2023 to USD 84.2 billion by 2028 at a CAGR of 6.2% over the forecast period. Market growth is fueled by consumer preferences for driving comfort, safety, and improved acceleration and traction. Technology advancements in the emerging markets, upcoming emission regulations with reduced emission limits, and transmission system innovations owing to growing demand for hybrid & electric vehicles offer growth opportunities for the automotive transmission industry.
Automotive transmission manufacturers must advance hybrid transmission technology due to rising consumer demand for convenience, fuel efficiency and government initiatives promoting electric & hybrid vehicles. The automotive industry faces pressure to adapt to evolving technology and consumer preferences, with automatic transmission demand driven by smooth gear shifting and acceleration.
The passenger car sector dominates the automotive transmission market, securing a substantial 71% share by volume in 2023. China particularly, stands out as the global leader in passenger car demand, with a noticeable shift towards electric vehicles. India has also witnessed a significant surge in passenger vehicle sales, registering a remarkable 27% increase, reaching a record-breaking 3.9 million units in the last fiscal year. In Asia Pacific, in the passenger car market, automatic transmission will be dominating by 2028, due to the ease of driving, and smooth riding experience it offers. Whereas, in the United States, the trend for SUVs is on a remarkable rise, driven by consumers' preference for larger, sturdier vehicles. This trend is fueled by perceptions of enhanced safety, spaciousness, and elevated driving positions. In North America, for passenger cars, Automatic Transmission will be dominating in the forecasted period followed by CVT and DCT. In the European region, SUVs dominate the market with almost 49% of total passenger car sales. In this region, automatic transmission will be dominating the market followed by manual transmission and DCT.
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CVT transmission type, by number of forward gears is estimated to be the fastest growing segment. CVT transmissions, unlike traditional transmission systems uses set of fixed gears which allows smooth and step-less ratio changes. CVT can avoid shift shock making it an excellent transmission alternative. CVTs offer smoother acceleration and improved fuel efficiency compared to traditional automatic transmissions. Furthermore, CVTs' ability to continuously adjust gear ratios provides a seamless driving experience, particularly in urban environments with stop-and-go traffic. As automakers strive to meet stringent fuel economy regulations and consumer demand for more efficient vehicles grows, the adoption of CVTs is expected to continue rising, further driving market expansion.
The by two-wheelers automatic transmission market is estimated to be the fastest-growing market over the forecast period. This growth can be attributed to several factors, including convenience and ease of use, particularly in urban environments with frequent stop-and-go traffic. This appeals to a broader range of riders, including those needing to be more comfortable with manual shifting. Additionally, automatic transmissions provide smoother acceleration and gear changes, enhancing the riding experience. Furthermore, as technology advances, automatic transmissions are becoming more efficient and reliable, addressing concerns about performance and maintenance. Finally, with the increasing popularity of electric scooters and motorcycles, automatic transmissions complement the electric drivetrain technology well, offering seamless power delivery and maximizing efficiency.
By 2028, Asia Pacific will hold a significant share of the automotive transmission market. China and India are expected to lead regional transmission market, with a notable global presence. Government incentives promoting green vehicles, particularly electric and hybrid vehicles is expected to drive the transmission market. Manufacturers in this region, such as JATCO Ltd., Aisin Corporation, and Hyundai Transys, prioritize energy-efficient components for electric vehicles supported by government regulations and foreign direct investment norms. Consequently, OEMs increasingly integrate electric and hybrid vehicles into their product portfolios.
Key Market Players:
Key players in the market include Aisin Corporation (Japan), ZF Friedrichshafen AG (Germany), Magna International Inc. (Canada), JATCO Ltd. (Japan), BorgWarner Inc. (US). These companies have a strong track record in developing and manufacturing automotive transmissions and its components. They have facilities and manufacturing centers across all regions, such as North America, Asia Pacific, and Europe. They are well positioned to benefit from the growth of new technologies such as electric and hybrid vehicles in the market as they have already stepped into the market by developing their portfolio suitable to adopt the same.
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