The automotive gears market is projected to grow from USD 42.7 billion in 2024 to USD 50.8 billion by 2030, at a CAGR of 3.0%. The growth of this market can be attributed to the rising production of passenger cars, light commercial vehicles, rise in demand for SUVs, rise in production of c-segment and above vehicles, increase in comfort and convenience features like Sunroofs, ORVMs and power windows and the use of low-carbon footprint technologies.
The adoption of plastic/polymer gears for automotive applications is expected to create an opportunity for many gear manufacturers. With the rise in consumer demands for mid and high-segment cars, there will be a rise in applications of sunroofs, power windows, ORVMs, and automatic tailgates, and the demand for plastic gears will also increase. These gears have no noise and vibrations, are lightweight, and have low manufacturing costs. Also, they require very little or no maintenance and are corrosion-free.
Heavy Commercial Vehicles are estimated to be the fastest-growing market by vehicle type. HCVs have multi-speed transmissions ranging from 6-speed manual to 14-speed semi-automatic and automatic transmissions. These transmissions have varied numbers of gears ranging from 14 units to 28 units. Heavy trucks above 20 tons GVW are offered in multi-axle configurations, due to which the number of differentials is doubled, increasing the number of differential gears. Due to the growing mining industry and infrastructural developments, the number of HCVs is expected to rise, which will positively impact the automotive gears market.
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The bevel gears segment is estimated to account for the largest global differential gears market share by 2030. The demand for bevel gears has increased due to the rising sales of SUVs with 4WD/AWD drive configurations in Europe and North America. The Canada, China, US, Japan, and South Korea lead the premium SUVs market, constituting more than 90% of total production globally. In 2023, the production of luxury SUVs in the US out of total luxury cars was around 75%. Developing countries such as China, Brazil, and India have grown tremendously in SUV demand during previous years. These premium cars and SUVs are offered with AWD/4WD systems consisting of AWD/4WD systems equipped with two differentials: front and rear. North America witnesses a high demand for rear-wheel-drive pickup trucks. With the growing sales of SUVs with 4WD/AWD, the demand for bevel gears is expected to grow in the coming years.
Similarly, Helical gears have a significant application in transmission systems, covering all transmission types. Globally, the manual transmission segment accounted for the largest market share at a global level. The demand for manual transmission is high in developing countries, such as China and India, due to the price competitiveness compared to other transmission types. This manual transmission is installed with helical gears and a few spur gears. Further, Worm gears are expected to grow at the fastest CAGR in the differential gear market. Torsen differentials are installed in heavy trucks with worm gears above 25 tonnage capacity. Owing to this limited application area of worm gears, their market demand is expected to be low in the coming years.
The adoption of lightweight gear materials will have significant opportunities for automotive gear manufacturers. The demand for lightweight components has increased as the industry focuses on fuel efficiency. Lightweight gears can reduce the transmission weight, and differential systems can reduce the vehicle's overall weight. Gear manufacturers are using alloys as solutions to tackle this issue. Gear manufacturers use metals like aluminum, magnesium, and copper alloys to produce gears to reduce weight, keeping the operational requirements the same. Some gear manufacturers like GKN Powder Metallurgy (US) manufacture gears by sintering, using powdered forms of metals and metal alloys.
Key Market Players:
The major players in the automotive gears industry include American Axle & Manufacturing Holding, Inc. (US), GKN Powder Metallurgy (US), Bharat Gears Ltd. (India), JTEKT Corporation (Japan), and Robert Bosch GmbH (Germany).
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