Research

Back to School When Times are Bad? The Role of Housing Wealth (2025), with Alexander Popov (ECB) [Latest version]

Abstract. We investigate the consequences of the 2008-11 housing bust for human capital accumulation. Exploiting the highly unequal geographic distribution of housing wealth losses across the United States, we estimate that negative shocks to housing wealth significantly reduced college enrollment among first-year college-age children of homeowners during this period. At the peak of the bust, this effect corresponds to up to a 3.8% shortfall in local student enrollment in the areas that experienced the largest housing wealth losses. The decline in college enrollment persists for a decade, contributing to lower employability and income among homeowners’ offspring.

Presentations: TBS, IWH Halle, CERGE-EI, NEOMA, Bank of Spain, Trier Labor Economics Workshop, ESSIM 2025, SEHO 2025, IESEG International Workshop on Migration and Family Economics, CASFI Annual Conference 2025 (scheduled)

Working Papers

[1] Macroeconomic and Distributional Impact of Sanctions News: Evidence from Russia (2025), with Mikhail Mamonov. [PAPER] [SLIDES] [VoxEU 1] [VoxEU 2] [VoxTalks] [Talking Economics podcast] updated draft coming soon

Previously circulated as ``The Price of War: Macroeconomic and Cross-Sectional Effects of Sanctions on Russia'' (CERGE-EI WP 756)

Abstract. How much do global sanctions harm the targeted economy? We examine the economic impact of global sanctions on Russia, introducing a novel instrumental variable that identifies sanctions news shocks from high-frequency trading data on Russian sovereign bonds around U.S. sanctions announcements. We find that Russia’s country spread increases by 1.8–3 percentage points three to four days before the announcements, suggesting information leakage. Output, consumption, and investment contract by 2.5%, 3.0%, and 5%, respectively --- higher than previously estimated. The most pronounced effects are observed among the most productive firms and the wealthiest households. In contrast, unproductive firms and poorer households remain largely unaffected by sanctions.

Presentations: (2025) Barcelona Summer Forum, St.Andrews Workhop on Macroeconomics, *ESSIM 2025; (2023) International Conference on Macroeconomic Analysis and International Finance (ICMAIF, Rethymno, Greece), EEA congress (Barcelona, Spain); (2022) Workshop on Modelling Economic Sanctions (Australian National University, online), Deutsche Bundesbank (online), EUI Florence School of Banking and Finance Research seminar (online), Research Seminar in Contract Theory, Banking, and Money (University of Zurich, Switzerland), Theories and Methods in Macroeconomics (T2M) conference (online); (2020) IOS Leibniz Institute for East and Southeast European Studies (online)

Media 2022: [VoxEU 1] [VoxEU 2] [VoxTalks] [Talking Economics podcast] [L'Économiste Sceptique] [Guardian] [DenikN]; 2019: [rbc.ru] [kommersant.ru] [TV channel Russia 1]

[2] ''Crime and Punishment''? How Banks Anticipate and Propagate Global Financial Sanctions (2024), with Mikhail Mamonov and Steven Ongena [Paper] [slides] [VoxEU] submitted

Abstract. Global sanctions are increasingly used to limit authoritarian regimes worldwide. Using Russia and its banking industry between 2014 and 2020 as a laboratory, we find that staggered sanctions announcements produce unintended anticipation effects, reducing the efficiency of sanctions by allowing banks that are targeted but not yet sanctioned to increase cheaper borrowings from abroad and sell foreign asset holdings before freezing. The uncertainty associated with staggered sanctions also produces spillover effects to non-targeted banks with political connections to the Kremlin through board ties and regional presence. Targeted banks preemptively cut loan supply by 20%, but negative real effects occur only when sanctioned banks lend to firms under concurrent sanctions.

Presentations:* 2024 CEPR Symposium; 2023 Swedish House of Finance (keynote), 2023 50th EFA Conference (August 2023, Amsterdam), Research Seminar at HEC Lausanne (8 May 2023), ``Brown Bag'' at Michigan State University (14 April 2023), Informal Macro Seminar at Princeton University (October 2022), CERGE-EI ``Brown Bag" Research Seminar (Prague, Czech Republic, September 2022), Research Seminar at the Bundesbank (Online, August 2022), Tri-City Day-Ahead Workshop on the Future of Financial Intermediation (Frankfurt, August 2022), the 11th MoFiR CEPR banking workshop (July 2022, Portugal), EUI Florence School of Banking and Finance Research seminar ``Crime and Punishment: The Effects of Sanctions on Russia'' (May 2022, Florence, Italy), the AFI Research Seminar at KU Leuven (April 2022), EBRD Research Seminar (April 2022), Research Seminar in Contract Theory, Banking and Money at the University of Zurich (March 2022), 2021-EEA-ESEM (August 2021), Asian Meeting of the Econometric Society (June 2021)

* all by by co-authors

Media 2022: [VoxEU]

[3] Potato to the Rescue: Home Production and Child Nutrition During Deep Economic Crises (2025), with Mikhail Mamonov and Ella Sargsyan [Paper] submitted
Presented at: (2022) Wisconsin Russia Project 2022 Young Scholars Conference (online); Public Economics and Policy Seminar (University of Lausanne, Switzerland)

Abstract. Deep economic crises negatively affect population health, but how do households adapt in response? Using individual-level data from post-Soviet countries in the 1990s, we show home production of potatoes on suitable soil offsets the crisis’s negative impact on child health. This effect holds after controlling for individual heterogeneity, local shocks, and occupation-specific trends. It is specific to potatoes, limited to the crisis period, and concentrated among cohorts exposed to the shock. We prove households consumed, not sold, the potatoes. When state capacity and market access collapse, home production of staple crops can buffer health outcomes during acute, short-lived economic disruptions.

[4] Corporate Credit and the Risk of Recessions: The Role of the Productivity Channel (2024), with Mikhail Mamonov and Eleonora Sfrappini. [updated paper soon]

Abstract. We study how corporate credit expansion influences recession risk. We find that credit expansions driven by exogenous credit supply easing increase recession risk as credit flows predominantly to less productive, less profitable firms that do not increase investments or productivity. The increased recession risk in response to credit supply driven credit expansion is particularly strong under collateral booms and is accompanied by a slowdown in total factor productivity. Overall, our findings provide new insights into why credit-supply-driven expansions often end in recessions.

Presentations: (2023) Macro lunch seminar (Princeton University, USA), University of Zurich (Switzerland); (2022) Macrofinance Lab meeting, Informal Macro Seminar (Princeton University, USA), CERGE-EI Brown Bag seminar (Prague, Czech Republic), Sailing the Macro Workshop (Ventotene, Italy), Tri-City Day-Ahead Workshop on the Future of Financial Intermediation (Frankfurt, Germany), University of Zurich (Switzerland), International Conference on Macroeconomic Analysis and International Finance (ICMAIF, Rethymno, Greece), CERGE-EI Macro Workshop (Prague, Czech Republic); (2021) Italian Econometric Society Conference (online), Royal Economic Society Conference (online); (2020) CERGE-EI Brown Bag seminar (Prague, Czech Republic); Center for Econometrics and Business Analytics (online)

Work in progress

[1] Measuring Local Housing Wealth Inequality, with Jon Frost (BIS) and Sebastian Doerr (BIS)

[2] Legislative and Societal Barriers to Credit Access for Minorities, with Ralph De Haas (EBRD) and Olga Novikova (CERGE-EI)

Published papers

[1] The Real Effects of Credit Supply Shocks: Evidence from an Emerging Economy (2024), with Mikhail Mamonov, Daria Kolesnik, and Aleksei Kiselev [Paper] [doi] forthcoming at the Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics

Books

[1] Global Economic Consequences of the War in Ukraine: Sanctions, Supply Chains and Sustainability (2022) (edited by Dominic Rohner, Luis Garicano, and Beatrice Weder di Mauro), 2022, CEPR eBook [link]

[2] Disasters and (Bank) Financing (2024), with Mikhail Mamonov, Steven Ongena (UZH). CEPR Press eBook. [VoxTalks Podcast (March 2024)]

Sleeping

[1] Credit Supply Shocks and Household Defaults, with Mikhail Mamonov.
Draft presented at: (2023) KU Leuven, (2020) EEA congress (online), Central Bank Macroeconomic Modelling Workshop (Norges Bank, online)

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