Publications

COVID-19 

COVID-19 Time-varying Reproduction Numbers Worldwide: An Empirical Analysis of Mandatory and Voluntary Social Distancing (with A. Chudick and M. H. Pesaran), Conditionally Accepted, IMF Economic Review.

Capital Controls and Macroprudential Policies

Optimal Policy for Macro-Financial Stability (with G. Benigno, H. Chen, C. Otrok, and E. R. Young), AEJ: Macroeconomics, Conditionally Accepted.

Capital Controls: A Brief Survey of the New Literature (with Chang Ma), invited contribution, A. Dixit, S. Edwards, and K. Judd, K. Kletzer (co-editors), Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Economics and Finance, Oxford University Press, 2020.

Does Easing Monetary Policy Increase Financial Stability? (with A. Cesa-Bianchi) Journal of Financial Stability, Vol. 30, pp. 111-125, 2017. (E-House Best Paper Award, 2016 Chinese Real Estate Congress) [Slides] [Data] [Code] [Voxeu blog post]

Capital Controls Measures: A New Data Set (with A. Fernández, M. Klein, M. Schindler, and M. Uribe), IMF Economic Review, Vol. 64 (3), pp. 548-574, 2016. [Appendix] [Slides] [Data] [Blog post]

Capital Controls or Exchange Rate Policy? A Pecuniary Externality Perspective (with G. Benigno, H. Chen, C. Otrok, and E. R. Young), Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol.  84, pp. 147-165, 2016. [Appendix] [Slides] [Code]

Are Capital Controls Countercyclical? (with A. Fernández and M. Uribe), Journal of Monetary Economics (Lead article), Vol. 76, pp. 1-14 (Lead Article), 2015.

Financial Crises and Macroprudential Policies (with G. Benigno, C. Otrok, E. R. Young, and H. Chen), Journal of International Economics, Vol. 89 No. 2, pp. 453-470, 2013.

Revisiting Overborrowing and Its Policy Implications (with G. Benigno, C. Otrok, E. R. Young, and H. Chen) in “Analysis and Economic Policies Series,” Vol. 14, Central Bank of Chile, 2010.

Global Fianancial Cycle

Capital Flows, Real Estate, and City Business Cycles: Micro Evidence from the German Boom (with Peter Bednarek, Daniel te Kaat, and Chang Ma), forthcoming, Review of Finacial Studies.

Uncertainty and Economic Activity: A Multi-Country Perspective (with A. Cesa-Bianchi and H. M. Pesaran), [Supplement] [Slides] [Voxeu], Review of Finacial Studies (Lead Article),  Vol. 33, Issue 8, pp. 3393–3445, 2020.

Global Business and Financial Cycles: A Tale of Two Capital Account Regimes (with Julien Acalin),  Seoul Journal of Economics, Vol. 33, No. 3, 2020.

International Credit Supply shocks (with A. Cesa-Bianchi and A. Ferrero), Journal of International Economics, 2018. [Slides] [Supplement] [VoxChina post]

Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy (with A. Cesa-Bianchi and L. Felipe Cespedes). Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Vol. 47, pp. 301-335, 2015 (2015 Global Real Estate Summit AsRes Best Paper Award). [Appendix] [Slides] [Data] [Blogpost]

Gloabl Imbalances

The Valuation Channel of External Adjustment (with F. Ghironi and J. Lee), Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 57, pp. 86-114, 2015.

Oil Shocks and External Balances (with L. Kilian and N. Spatafora), Journal International Economics, Vol. 77, No. 2, pp. 181-194, 2009.

Global Imbalances: The Role of Emerging Asia (with P. Cova and M. Pisani), Review of International Economics, Vol. 17, No. 4, pp. 716-733, 2009.

Global Imbalances: The Role of the Non-tradable TFP in Advanced Economies (with P. Cova, M. Pisani, and N. Batini), IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 55, No. 2, 2008.

Net Foreign Asset Positions and Consumption Dynamics (with F. Ghironi and T. İşcan), Journal of International Money and Finance, VOL. No. 27, pp. 1337–1359, 2008.

Exchange Rates and External Imbalances (with R. Cardarelli), IMF World Economic Outlook, Chapter 3, April 2007.

Oil and Global Imbalances (with N. Spatafora), IMF World Economic Outlook, Chapter 2, April 2006. (Covered in the media by The Finacial Times and The Economist, among others.)

The U.S. Dollar and the Trade Deficit: What Accounts for the Late 1990s? (with B. Hunt), International Finance, Vol. 8, No. 3, pp. 399–434, 2005.

Monetary Policy

An Event Study of COVID-19 Central Bank Quantitative Easing in Advanced and Emerging Economies (with J. Hartley and D. Jiménez), in A. Chudik, C. Hsiao, and A. Timmermann (Editors), Essays in Honor of M. Hashem Pesaran, Prediction and Macro Modeling (Advances in Econometrics, Vol. 43A), Emerald Publishing Limited (2022), pp. 291–322 (Invited).

News Shocks and Asset Price Volatility in General Equilibrium (with A. Matsumoto, P. Cova, and M. Pisani), Journal Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol 35, No. 12, pp 2132-2149, 2011.

The Changing Housing Cycle and the Implications for Monetary Policy (with R. Cardarelli and D. Igan), IMF World Economic Outlook, Chapter 3, April 2008. (Covered by the FT and The Economist among others.)

Has The Transmission Mechanism of the European Monetary Policy Changed in the Run-up to EMU? (with M. Ciccarelli), European Economic Review, Vol. 50, No. 3, pp. 737-776, 2006.

Measuring Disinflation Credibility in Emerging Markets (with Marco Rossi), Economics Bulletin, Vol. 6, No 11, pp. 1-8, 2006.

Retail Bank Interest Rate Pass-Through: Is Chile Atypical? (with M. Espinosa-Vega), in  "Analysis and Economic Policies Series," Vol. 7, Central Bank of Chile, 2003.

Macroeconometrics

A Counterfactual Economic Analysis of Covid-19 Using a Threshold Augmented Multi-Country Model (with A. Chudik, K. Mohaddes, M. H. Pesaran, M. Raissi), Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 119 (2021), pp. 1024-77.

China's Emergence in the World Economy and Business Cycles in Latin America (with H. Pesaran, T. Xu, and A. Cesa-Bianchi), Economia, Vol. 12, No. 2, 2012.

On the Heterogeneity Bias of Pooled Estimators in Stationary Panel VARs, Economic Modeling, Vol. 27 No. 5, pp. 1183–1198, 2010.

Measuring Contagion and Interdependence with a Bayesian Time-Varying Coefficient Model (with M. Ciccarelli), Journal of Financial Econometrics, Vol. 5, No. 2, pp. 285-320, 2007.

Bayesian VARs—A Survey of the Recent Literature (with M. Ciccarelli), Rivista di Politica Economica, September-October 2003.

Other Publications

Blockchain Technology and Government Applications: A Proposal for a Global Patent Office (with E. Di Nicola Carena and P. La Mura), in A. Fatás (editor), The Economics of Fintech and Digital Currencies, CEPR ebook, Fintech and Digital Currencies Policy and Research Network, CEPR March 2019.

Too Small to Thrive: The Housing Finance Market in Latin America and the Caribbean (with A. Galindo, F. Warnock and V. Warnock), in C. Bouillon (ed.), “Housing in Latin America and the Caribbean,” Palgrave Macmillan, 2012.

Aid, Exports, and Growth (with J. S. Kang and A. Prati), The Review of Economics and Institutions, Vol 3, No. 2, 2012.

Is Growth Exogenous? Evidence from the 1970s and the 1980s, Applied Economics, Vol. 42, No. 5, pp. 535-543, 2010.

External Capital Structures for Managing Oil Price Volatility (with J. D. Burger, V. Warnock, and F. E. Warnock), Journal of Business, Finance and Economics in Emerging Economies, 2010.

Macroeconomic Effects of China's Fiscal Stimulus (with P. Cova and M. Pisani), in C. Yin-Wong  and G. Ma (eds.), “Asia and China in the Global Economy,” World Scientific Publishing, 2011. 

Impact of Japan’s Policies for Growth (with N. Batini and P. N’Diaye) in D. A. Citrin and A. Zanello, “Japan’s Economic Revival in a Globalized World,” Palgrave Macmillan, 2008.

How Might CAFTA Change Fluctuations in Central America? Lessons from NAFTA (with M. A. Kose), Journal of Asian Economics, Vol. 16, No. 1, pp. 77-104, 2004.

Recent IMF Staff Research on IMF-Supported Programs (with A. Mody), in “IMF-Supported Programs: Recent Staff Research, by A. Mody and A. Rebucci (eds.), IMF Book, 2006.