4. Population

4.1 Natural increase as a component of population change

• Natural increase rate, birth rate and death rate, fertility rate, and infant mortality rate.
• Factors (social, economic, environmental and political) affecting levels of fertility and mortality.
• The interpretation of age/sex structure diagrams.
• Population structure (age, gender, dependency, and dependency ratio).

4.2 Demographic transition

• Changes in birth rate and death rate over time.
• A critical appreciation of the demographic transition model, Stages 1–5.
• Issues of youthful populations and ageing populations.
• Links between population and development: changes in infant mortality rate and life expectancy over time.

4.3 Population–resource relationships

• The concept of food security. Causes and consequences of food shortages.
• The roles of technology and innovation in development of food production. The role of constraints (e.g. war, climatic hazards) in relation to sustaining population.
• The concept of carrying capacity.
• Candidates should be able to critically evaluate the concept of optimum population including overpopulation and underpopulation.

4.4 The management of natural increase

Case study: candidates must study one country’s population policy regarding natural increase, showing the difficulties faced and evaluate the attempted solution(s). (The case study must include attempts to alter the natural increase rate and to manage the results of population change.)