The goal of my research is to understand how extreme precipitation will change in New York City through the rest of the century. The precipitation models used in my work project an increase in the severity of extreme precipitation events because of climate change, and knowing this can help the most affected areas anticipate it.
Extreme precipitation is characterized as significant amounts of rain, sleet, or snow falling within a given area. In New York City, climate change is making extreme precipitation events more severe, so it is important to analyze how this change is expected to occur. Precipitation averages vary by location, so there is no single amount of precipitation that has to fall to make an event “extreme.” Instead, precipitation events are labeled “extreme” if they fall into a high percentile of all precipitation in an area. Examining climate data can help answer the question of how extreme precipitation will change in New York City through the rest of the century. To do this, climate models containing both historical precipitation data collected from 1960-2014 and projected future data up to the year 2100 were analyzed, with a focus on 90th, 95th, and 99th percentile precipitation. The projections within these climate models were developed using four different emissions scenarios, which are essentially four different potential intensities of climate change. All scenarios projected increases in both total and extreme precipitation, with extreme precipitation projected to increase in severity at a higher rate than total precipitation. Additionally, compared to data from 1980-2000, precipitation levels in the mid-to-late 2000s expressed statistically significant differences in every scenario. The highest-emissions scenario (nicknamed SSP585) projected the largest increases in precipitation frequency and severity. Because extreme precipitation is expected to significantly increase, New York City must find ways to limit the damage frequent extreme precipitation will cause.
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