What Will Change?

Although it is estimated that the spread of COVID-19 is slowing worldwide, it’s clear that there will be massive change in our daily lives to reach a “new normal.” It’s possible that within a year nothing will seem different on the surface level, but society will always remember the past few months. These past months will certainly be taught in future history books. Still, there are many questions about moving forward in these uncertain times. Will I ever work in my office again? Will we ever find a vaccine or cure for the virus? How will this affect global transportation? These questions may not have a right answer, but relating them to geography can help us understand the future of our world post-pandemic.

"Possibly, in a few months, we’ll return to some version of the old normal. But this spring won’t be forgotten."

-Kim Stanley Robinson, The New Yorker

The Workplace

The world as we know it has been flipped upside down. All “non-essential” employees are working remotely from home, which is surprisingly convenient thanks to the latest telecommunication technology like Zoom or Google Hangouts. Catherine Nixey from 1843 Magazine writes that office culture and the need to work in an office has been on the decline in recent years. Office parks in suburban sprawl are seen as the “death of life-work balance,” and many employees can complete their work at home. Fundera reports that before nationwide stay-at-home orders, 5 million employees, or 3.6% of the American workforce were already working from home for at least half of their time. Companies are also becoming more open to employees working from home, as it saves money and may increase productivity. Recently, Twitter announced that employees can continue working from home for the rest of their career. But what will this shift mean for physical office spaces? This might mean the end for the office real-estate boom, more flexible leases in general, or possible more mixed-use developments and less commercial-only zoning.

Global Air Travel

As our world has become increasingly interconnected due to globalization, air travel has become a very important part of our global economy and supply chains. However, our reliance on globalization is what caused the worldwide spread of COVID-19. Airlines are suffering immensely and only flying as low as 1% of capacity because of the little demand in travel, and the industry will likely feel the effects for years to come. Currently, US Airlines are averaging a mere 23 passengers per flight. Forbes suggests that once passenger flights resume at a higher capacity, there will be slower turnarounds between flights due to thorough sanitation procedures inside cabins and possibly individual luggage. Automation may play a large role, as airports are trying to remove as many touchpoints as possible to curb the spread of COVID-19 and germs in general. Self-check-in, contactless baggage drops, and thermal scanning for feverish body temperatures, which already exist in several travel hubs, may become the new normal across all airports. Face scanning upon boarding is already being tested in some US airports to further limit person-to-person contact. It’s likely that air travel for the next year may feel the same as it was after 9/11. But when will airlines be scheduled at full capacity again? Domestic travel has the opportunity to return to a new normal quickest, but 100% capacity international travel remains a mystery. Niraj Chokshi, an expert on transportation and airlines with the NY Times, has a bleak view on the future of air travel: “ With much of the world closed for business, and no widely available vaccine in sight, it may be months, if not years, before airlines operate as many flights as they did before the crisis.” Travel associations like the International Air Transport Association (IATA) and Airport Council International (ACI) are currently outlining new protocols and by-laws to help mitigate the risk of further spreading the virus.

Retail and Grocery Spaces

The rise of technology being utilized during stay-at-home orders is also changing the way we consume. Grocery and retail stores, restaurants, and other businesses are offering delivery and contactless pick-up of their products and services. This minimizes the risk of contracting and spreading COVID-19 and is seen as a convenience for consumers, as it saves shopping times drastically. Grocery stores across the world are only accepting online orders and utilizing third party delivery companies or contactless pickup options for their customer. An article from CNN discusses how this consumption method, dubbed “click and collect” may be the future of retail. Much like Amazon, grocery stores see an opportunity to morph into warehouses full of their products and have employees pick ordered items off the shelves and run them to customers. This service already exists at many large grocers but it is not very popular. With the rise of online shopping, the circumstances of the pandemic, and social distancing practices, this may become the new normal for years following in attempt to curb the effects of the spread. This future of retail has the opportunity to change the landscapes of our shopping centers into more industrial spaces with warehouses and designated pick-up zones, which may provide opportunity to transform these landscapes into more efficient use of space, instead of having massive parking lots and unused space.

Final Verdict

In general, many current social customs like shaking of hands when meeting someone or closing a business deal may soon be seen as taboo. Western countries may adapt the “mask culture” when visiting public spaces or whenever they leave their home, as many people do in East Asia as a result of the 2002 SARS outbreak and bird flu pandemic in 2006. Social distancing practices in general may lead to future developments having more open space, so there are less crowds and, thus, less chances for spreading infectious diseases. New airports and travel hubs that are currently being planned or built are including massive corridors and waiting areas to ease over-crowding, and this pandemic might influence architects and developers to double-down on those plans.

This pandemic has affected our everyday lives and will leave a long-lasting impact in the future. Our utilization of public space will forever be different because of the changes made during the pandemic in regards to our workplaces, how we consume, and the transportation industry. We can turn to geographical patterns to help us grasp a better understanding of the future. This future, however, is still very uncertain. Will we experience other outbreaks due to many governments lifting stay-at-home orders? What will the effects of mass unemployment be in many countries? Although we do not have many answers right now, we know that this pandemic will be one of, if not the largest event of our lives and we can anticipate changes in our everyday lives.