Israel Strikes Deal With UAE and Bahrain

By Charlie Summers

October 12, 2020

On September 15, the South Lawn was jam packed with journalists, politicians, and pundits, all eager to witness the signing of the treaties, dubbed the Abraham Accords, that would normalize Israel’s relations with two Gulf states, the UAE and Bahrain. In front of the White House sat Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Bahraini Minister of Foreign Affairs Abdullatif al-Zayani, Emirati Minister of Foreign Affairs Abdullah bin-Zayed, and President Donald Trump, the witness to the signings.

The normalization of ties between Israel, the UAE and Bahrain takes place in light of a larger shift in the alliances of the Middle East. As more Gulf states become uneasy with Iran’s actions abroad, Israel-Palestine relations have taken a backseat, softening tensions between Israel and members of the Arab League, some of which share Israel’s interests in regard to Iran.

The last agreement signed between Israel and a neighboring Arab state was just over a quarter-century ago in 1994, when the late Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and Jordanian Prime Minister Abdelsalam al-Majali signed a treaty that settled territorial disputes and normalized ties between the two countries. As of today, Israel has normalized its relations with Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain and the UAE.

On the day of the signing, former Ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro spoke at a JDCA-hosted Zoom seminar about the twin treaties, and noted that they could bring “warmer peaces than the Egyptian and Jordanian ones.”

He characterized Israel’s relations with Egypt and Jordan as “fairly cold,” stressing that trade and tourism between the countries has been limited and that the peace made was primarily between governments rather than the nations themselves.

Netanyahu has described the agreements as “peace for peace,” however there are a couple external factors, aside from Israel’s pre-existing covert relations with the UAE and Bahrain, that have pushed these agreements to fruition.

The signing took place soon after Netanyahu backtracked his plan to annex West Bank settlements. Despite the Trump Administration’s tentative greenlight on annexation, Netanyahu was unable to garner support from settler leaders or convince his coalition partner, Benny Gantz, to back the plan. From the time the plan fell short, Emirati and Bahraini leaders have displayed an increased willingness to negotiate. Given the hefty benefits of friendly relations with Arab countries, the accords have rendered annexation inconceivable for the near future.

The other determinant, unbeknownst to Israeli officials until later in the negotiations, was the UAE’s anticipated purchase of a number of F-35 stealth fighter jets from the US, which is widely speculated to have influenced the UAE’s willingness to sign off on the Abraham Accords. This realization was met with apprehension by Israel, which is currently the only country in the region that flies F-35s.

Shapiro commented on the prospective arms sale on Tuesday, “There’s no such thing as a free lunch in this world,” he quipped. “There is absolutely no question that this was essentially a quid-pro-quo.”

In spite of halted negotiations between Israeli and Palestinian leadership, Shapiro is hopeful that these agreements will help fulfill the long-term goal of a two-state solution, and emphasized that the Abraham Accords could be a basis for generating new momentum toward two states.