SIMULATION: The Future of ISIS

Opening Scenario

The conference’s concluding event will be in the form of a unique multi-round “open poker” style simulation. Following the fall of Raqqa, ISIS has lost its major control over territory in Syria and Iraq, leaving the fate of ISIS leadership unknown. Relevant actors convene to discuss the future of Syria, ISIS and the new landscape of the Middle East. Based on the discussion, the remaining ISIS leadership carry out strategic talks, discussing the organization's next steps; its center of leadership, activity, and ideological focus, as well as the group's relationship with other global Jihadi actors.

Simulation Chairman: Prof. Boaz Ganor, Founder and Executive Director, ICT, Ronald Lauder Chair for Counter-Terrorism & Dean, Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy & Strategy, IDC Herzliya, Israel

Moderator: Mr. Stevie Weinberg, Director of Operations, ICT, IDC Herzliya, Israel

Round 1:

Russia: Mr. Ilan Berman, Vice President, American Foreign Policy Council (AFPC), United States

Hezbollah: Dr. Eitan Azani, Deputy Executive Director, ICT and Head of BA & MA Specializations in Counter-Terrorism, Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy & Strategy, IDC Herzliya, Israel

Iran: Mr. Meir Javedanfar, Lecturer on Iran, Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy and Strategy, IDC Herzliya, Israel

Syria: Mr. Miroslav Zafirov, Liaison and Political Affairs Officer at UNSCO, LADP Reconciliation and Peace Building Expert at UNDP, Iraq

Turkey: Dr. Demir Murat Seyrek, Senior Policy Advisor, European Foundation of Democracy, Belgium

Round 2:

United States: Mr. Brian Michael Jenkins, Senior Advisor to the President, RAND Corporation and Member of the Professional Advisory Board, ICT, IDC Herzliya, United States

Gulf States & Saudi Arabia: Col. (Res.) Dr. Shaul Shay. Research Fellow, ICT and Director of Research, IPS, IDC Herzliya, Israel

Russia: Mr. Ilan Berman, Vice President, American Foreign Policy Council (AFPC), United States

Turkey: Dr. Demir Murat Seyrek, Senior Policy Advisor, European Foundation of Democracy, Belgium

Iran: Mr. Meir Javedanfar, Lecturer on Iran, Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy and Strategy, IDC Herzliya, Israel

Israel: Mr. Omri Sharon, Associate, ICT, IDC Herzliya & Former Member of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, Israel

Round 3: ISIS Meeting

Caliph: Prof. Boaz Ganor, Founder and Executive Director, ICT, Ronald Lauder Chair for Counter-Terrorism & Dean, Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy & Strategy, IDC Herzliya, Israel

Shura Council: Lt. Col. (Res.) Eyal Dykan, Former Head, Psychological Warfare Unit, Military Intelligence Directorate, IDF, Israel

Military Council: Mr. Naftali Granot, Former Deputy Director of the Mossad, Israel

Public Information Council: Dr. Eitan Azani, Deputy Executive Director, ICT and Head of BA & MA Specializations in Counter-Terrorism, Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy & Strategy, IDC Herzliya, Israel

Law Enforcement and Counter-Terrorism Policing (Blue Team Exercise)

A hands-on, tactical analysis of the “on-the-ground” situation, this workshop will focus on the issues of policing in the world of terrorism. A blue team exercise will provide a controlled setting to examine the pros and cons of methods and to analyze the dilemmas that policing units are confronted with when responding to an attack. Questions of jurisdiction, of command and control, of mitigation and recovery will be discussed; aiming at creating the dialogue between policing and counter-terror actors, before such dialogue is operationally imperative.

Chair: Mr. Denis Monette, Associate, ICT, IDC Herzliya; Chairman, STARCOM & Former Assistant Commissioner of Police, Nassau, New York, United States of America

Ms. Ana B. Hinojosa, Director, Compliance and Facilitation Directorate, World Customs Organization

Maj. Gen. (Res.) David Tzur, Former Member of the Knesset & Former Commander, Tel-Aviv District Police Israel

Inspector (Ret.) Kenneth Honig, Former Commanding Officer, Port Authority of NY & NJ, John F. Kennedy & LaGuardia International Airports, United States of America

Commissioner Luc Van Der Taelen, Project Manager, Community Policing and the Prevention of Radicalisation (CoPPRa), Belgium

Simulation led by ICT Experts:

Chair: Lt. Col. (Res.) Adv. Uri Ben Yaakov, Senior Researcher, ICT, IDC Herzliya, Israel

Ms. Leigh Jacobson, Research Assistant, ICT, & MA Student in Counter-Terrorism, Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy & Strategy, ICT, IDC Herzliya, Israel

Discussion Exercise with the Workshop Audience on Operational and Tactical Dilemmas in Law Enforcement and Counter-Terrorism Policing