GCC states depend on oil and gas as their main source of income. A threat to routes that are used to export and import natural gases can lead to the collapse of the GCC states economically. Alongside the economic threat, there is an obvious security threat, having trade ships being hit by missiles can lead to a major political crisis and can bring the growth of a number of GCC states to an end. Under the ongoing circumstances that have begun on the 1st of July and given the alliance options and solutions available to overcome the situation, it is thought that the one that would make more sense is the one proposed by the United States. This paper will further explain the situation and why this option seemed to be the best one.
The situation is the following, a number of missiles launched from Yemen have been hitting oil and gas tankers belonging to GCC states. Gulf commercial shipping has also been attacked and hostages have been taken. This clearly indicates that the security of those states and their citizens is being threatened. Political complications are happening between those states and the people behind this in Yemen. Alongside the political and security threats, many states are beginning to see that GCC routes are no longer safe for commerce and that investing in any country in the GCC is a major risk that should be avoided. This will definitely lead to an economic downturn and could lead to the collapse of those states’ economies. It can affect the oil and gas markets given that GCC countries are big producers and exporters of natural gases. In addition, it can affect the relationship between GCC countries and many other states given that many political relations are built on economic interest and trade in general.
GCC states have four options to overcome the current situation. The first one is for the six of them to collectively work together and to equally invest in an agreement with a clear plan that can be used to strategically fight the threat that is being faced. However, it is very clear that the relation between the six countries is not at its best state. An ongoing blockade has been imposed on Qatar by four countries (three of which are GCC countries) and these complications in the relationship make it hard for the six countries to trust each other and to trust that each state would fulfill its obligations without sudden changes.
The second option is to accept the offer proposed by China, however, under this agreement, the ongoing war in Yemen would have to stop and peace negotiations between GCC states and Iran will have to be initiated, in addition, the Chinese navy will have a strong presence in the area. China is also interested in the natural gas industry that GCC states play a key role in and would like to form a patrol coalition. It is true that if GCC states proceed with this agreement, the initial security threat will come to an end, however, their sovereignty could be threatened since china is asking for a lot and it is not in the interest of some GCC countries to end their conflict in Yemen that has lasted for five years without reaching their initial goal. It is also hard to engage in peace negotiations with Iran since Iran is thought to be behind the opposing side of the Yemen conflict and doing that can reflect that those states are Surrendering and that the attacks have been proven effective. Furthermore, a US base already exists in Qatar, and having a Chinese base within the same area given the tensions between the US and China can put the security of the whole area at risk.
The third option is to go with the Russian offer, this offer includes Russia sending its navy to help restore security, however, GCC states will have to support the rule of Al Assad in Syria both financially and militarily. Given the other offers, it is true that Russia asked for the least, however some GCC such as Qatar have shown to be against the Assad regime in Syria. And moving to the other side can be against their ideologies and political standards.
The fourth option is to accept the offer proposed by the US. under this agreement, the Gulf has to publicly blame Iran for the attacks and they also have to join an informal military coalition that would take control of the coastal territories of Yemen to prevent further attacks. The main reason that can disincentivize GCC states from proceeding with this offer is that publicly admitting to such claims can create a lot of tensions with Iran. there is a chance of being militarily attacked by Iran, however in that case Gulf states can go back to the US for military support. A US base already exists in Qatar and it is easier to have the US navy sent to the already existing base for support rather than creating a new one for China or Russia. GCC states have experienced an alliance with the US in 1990 when Kuwait was attacked by a neighboring middle eastern country.
“In the past decade, particularly since the Gulf War, the GCC states have made considerable strides in bolstering their tier one and tier three defenses: those within states and those that depend on cooperation with the United States and other allies” (Marr, 1995, p: 3).
The GCC already knows how the US functions in its alliances and they clearly know what to expect and what to not expect. The relations between those states and the US have been growing and no severe tensions have been experienced even though the Gulf region has experienced its own tensions after the blockade of Qatar. The US is a key player in world politics and being a friend to such a state can promote the politics of GCC states and can initiate further relations with other states especially those that are on good terms with the US. The US is also a strong economic player and in that case, it makes more sense to form an alliance with a powerful state that could aid the process of providing better weapons for the navy rather than one that requires financial and military aid from GCC states.
In conclusion, I believe that the best way to restore the security of the region is through proceeding with the offer proposed by the US for the reasons mentioned above. Furthermore, agreeing to the offer can strengthen the relations between GCC countries and the US and this can serve the interests of the Gulf states not only in today’s time but also in the future, given the high influential power that the United States holds.
References.
Marr, P. (1995). US-GCC Security Relations, I: Differing Threat Perceptions (No. 39). National Defense University, Institute for National Strategic Studies.