Determining Chances: The Tiers

There are 3 main terms to refer to the different college tiers (not of status, but of likelihood of admission):

1) Likely/Safety

A likely (or safety) school is a college that you’re very likely to get into. You’ll fall near the top of the school’s GPA and test score ranges, and your chances of getting in might be 90% or even guaranteed based on meeting certain eligibility requirements. It’s important that your safety schools be schools you are willing to attend (and able to afford) should your other choices not work out.

2) Target

A target school is one to which you are likely to be accepted – but it’s not at all guaranteed! You’ll fall solidly within this college’s GPA and test score ranges, and your student profile will be a good match for the college’s average accepted student. Your chances of getting accepted might be 75%.

3) Reach

A reach school is a stretch for you. You meet this school’s admission requirements, but your qualifications fall on the low end of one or more measures (GPA, test scores, etc.) compared to the average profile of admitted students. Your chances of getting into these schools might be 25% - 50%. (This is not the same as the “selectivity” of the school – the percentage of applicants it accepts. This is your personal chance of getting into the school, based on your student profile compared to the average accepted student.)

Use Naviance to Determine Chances

Compare Me

Use the compare me to get a quick look and a quick assessment of your chances!

1) Click on "Colleges I'm Thinking About"

2) Click on "Compare Me"

3) Review which colleges you have two green marks for and add to your Target List.

PDF Walkthrough HERE

College Profile Page

Review the ‘class profiles’ for your target colleges. These profiles, compiled by the colleges, provide key statistical information on past cohorts of admitted students and help you see if your scores and GPA fall in range of their average scores or GPAs (most often colleges will list the ‘middle 50% range’). And remember if you aren’t a hooked applicant, you’ll likely need to be ABOVE the posted middle 50% range for test scores and GPA.

What's important about this tool is that it offers BOTH the National Average and the "School Specific" average. When possible, always go with the School Specific Average. Admissions is based on location and zip code--so it matters more how you compare to applicants in your own school--not applicants across the nation.

Here, I can see that the GPA range of a typically admitted student from Cupertino High School falls between 3.74-3.85. That means for a CHS student to have a fairly okay chance of getting in, I'd need a 3.75-3.85 GPA. My 3.5 falls below that range.

Scrolling down, I can see the range of test scores too. Now because UCs are Test Optional, this doesn't apply to me--but this would be another indicator I'd look at for schools that use test scores. So here, the typically admitted student from CHS has a SAT range of 1430-1540. Again, my 1190 SAT score falls below that range

Given these 2 data points, I conclude that UC Davis is a Reach school for me.

Scattergrams

Scattergrams is a plot graph of all the admits to a certain college. Scattergrams plots the admissions data (green check for admitted, red x for rejected) of students from that school who got in or didn't. The plot primarily uses GPA and test scores.

The dotted line represents the standard GPA and Test Score of the typically admitted student. (For example, the dotted line indicates a typical student admitted to UC Davis from Cupertino High School usually has a 3.90 GPA and a 1500 GPA)
Your data point will be represented by a blue Person Icon. Take a visual look to see if your plot point is surrounded by green check marks, red x's, or a mix. That should give you some idea of how likely you can attend this school.
- My academic profile has a GPA of 3.5 and a 1190 Test Score. I find the Blue Person Icon on the graph (where a 3.5 GPA meets an 1190 Test Score), I see that area is mostly surrounded by red X's. There are 4 green check marks around--but not a great indicator still.
- I conclude that UC Davis is a Reach School for me.

A few caveats:

Scattergrams for colleges and universities that are less selective will provide you with a greater degree of confidence in your admissions outcome.

Scattergrams for the most highly selective colleges and universities will tell you if you are a reasonable applicant, but should not be seen as the final word. These schools also consider essays, extracurricular activities, recommendations, etc. – so grades and scores alone are not determinative. Additionally, students with hooks who apply to top colleges and universities will often have better outcomes than unhooked ones, even if their grades and scores are lower.

SuperMatch

Use Supermatch to see what colleges prefer students with your profile. You can just adjust the Search setting to the level of Acceptance Rate data to a more inclusive number. This will give you a list of colleges that typically admit students with your profile.

Advanced College Search

Use Advance College Search to see what colleges prefer students with your profile. You can just adjust the Search setting to the level of Acceptance Rate data to a more inclusive number. This will give you a list of colleges that typically admit students with your profile.

Non- Naviance Tools

There are tools OUTSIDE of Naviance as well that can help you determine your chances. Check out our page HERE.

Your College List

Your final college list should consist of 3 reach, 5-7 target, and 3 likely schools.

Two other types of schools you may include in your college admissions process are the “highly competitive reach school” and the last-minute safety school.

• A highly competitive reach school accepts very few (5-15%) of its applicants. Even the valedictorian of an FUHSD school is not guaranteed a spot! In fact, chances will be slim for everyone, including valedictorians. Harvard, Columbia, Stanford, Yale, and Northwestern are all examples of highly competitive reach schools.

• A last-minute likely school is a school you may turn to if something happens in your life to change your college needs or plans. Let’s say you don’t get the financial aid you need at your other schools, or an illness in the family makes you suddenly decide to stay close to home. In these cases, an application to a last-minute safety school is the trick.

COLLEGE LIST WORKSHEET HERE

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