The Mixed Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Our Environment; Where Do We Go from here?

An Overview

The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted all of us in unprecedented ways, and it should come as no surprise that the coronavirus and related restrictions have had resulting impacts on our planet, for better or for worse. Many of these come in the form of positive short-term impacts: drastic improvements in global air quality, lower greenhouse gas emissions, as well as lower levels of noise pollution. However, this has come at the expense of greater consumption of single-use plastics and waste, raising significant concerns from environmental scientists around the world. Unless our production and consumption systems see serious reform, the signs point to less progress than many might have hoped for at the start of lockdown. 

A Drop in Global Air Pollution

Since governments have put into place shutdowns to contain the spread of the coronavirus, air pollutants such as nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide, and sulfur dioxide have severely decreased. This is illustrated in the satellite images from NASA below which show a marked decrease in airborne nitrogen dioxide in the wake of shutdowns across China. 

The decrease in air pollution has resulted in significant health benefits (though of course, this does not make up for the devastating losses due to the pandemic). According to research at Stanford University, the reduction in air pollution due to shutdowns has likely saved between 53,000 and 77,000 lives in China alone. The World Health Organization estimates that exposure to outdoor air pollution is responsible for 4.2 million premature deaths each year by increasing the risk of cardiovascular disease, cancer, etc. Incidentally, a Harvard University study linked such exposure to air pollution with greater mortality in COVID-19 cases, bringing the discussion alarmingly full-circle. But sticking on the bright side, an analysis by Carbon Brief predicts the COVID-19 pandemic could reduce carbon emissions by 1600 million tons this year, around 5.5% of total global emissions in 2019. 

Comparing this to the five largest falls in annual carbon emissions ever recorded (in blue), such a drop would be the largest ever globally recorded, greater than any economic crisis or war since the start of the 20th century. However, unless we continue to cap carbon emissions to the levels we’ve seen in recent months, the evidence suggests this won’t make much of a change. Atmospheric scientists have estimated that even with a 10% drop in emissions this year, our atmospheric carbon concentrations would continue increasing by 2 ppm in 2020. Life “back to normal” will likely result in no change whatsoever. 

The Harsh Reality

There seems to be a perpetuated popular notion that the COVID-19 pandemic has been “good for the environment”; however, according to the research, the benefits we may have seen outside our windows of clearer skies, peaceful quiet, and thriving nature, is all likely to be temporary. In fact, with shutdowns letting up for a time, we’ve already begun to see these positive outcomes vanish. Some experts believe that the impact of COVID-19 is pointing us in the direction of a world with more traffic, more pollution, and climate change increasing at frighteningly higher rates. 

In April, when the world hunkered down for the long haul, daily carbon emissions were down 17% compared to 2019. However, as of June 11th, they were back on the rise, only 5% lower than the same point the previous year, even without full global activity restored. The fact of the matter is, we’ve seen this before when the same situation occurred following the 2008 global financial crisis. As soon as the economy recovered, greenhouse gas emissions rebounded and skyrocketed. And it’s happening already. 

The construction of grand projects, such as the coal project shown above, could significantly set us back years as experts say energy infrastructure lock in future health and climate problems (because these systems are used for many years after their construction). Due to the economic crash following the pandemic, fossil fuel, plastic, airline, and automobile industries have sought large government rollbacks and other special favors. For example, oil and gas companies have successfully lobbied for billions of dollars in public funds to ease the damage to the economy, according to Lukas Ross, Senior Policy Analyst at Friends of the Earth. 

Recent legislation has also led to a reversal of policies aiming to reduce single-use plastic. Consequently, demand for recycled plastic has dropped, making it less financially appealing to the consumer, and the environmental footprint of plastics has increased. 

If the pandemic has given us anything, it would be an increased reliance on single-use plastics. Because of the high PPE (Personal Protective Equipment) demand in the general public, health workers, and service workers, single-use face mask production in China rose to 116 million per day in February, which is 12 times the usual rate of production. If the global population adheres to a standard of one disposable face mask a day from the end of lockdown, the COVID-19 pandemic could result in a monthly global consumption of 129 billion face masks and 65 billion gloves. 

Additionally, individual choices in lockdown have increased plastic demand, and the global plastic packaging market is projected to grow from $909.2 billion in 2019 to 1012.6 billion by 2021. Improper disposal of just 1% of face masks results in more than 10 million masks worth of waste, which has already had an observed impact on beaches and in our oceans; experts say this could aggravate the problems of microplastics in our water further.

A Look Forward 

A simple way to lower our environmental impact is something we’ve already grown accustomed to during the coronavirus pandemic: traveling less. However, this still doesn’t account for the largest contributors to global emissions: power generation, heavy transport, and industry. In order to create lasting change, we need to make the transition from fossil fuels to clean energy, which requires a change in policies from all world leaders. 

Many environmental activists call for a commitment to a circular economy with recycling practices and strict policy surrounding plastic pollution, stressing that a change is needed now more than ever. Without such an effort to protect the environment during and after COVID-19, it is unlikely we will come close to meeting UN Sustainable Development Goals, according to an article from the American Association for the Advancement of Science. If we are to lessen the impact of global warming, we must approach Earth’s environmental crisis with the same urgency as we have the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Sources Used: 

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/369/6509/1314

https://www.eea.europa.eu/highlights/impact-of-covid-19-lockdown 

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/06/why-covid-19-will-end-up-harming-the-environment/ 

http://foe.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/CashingInOnCOVID-4.pdf 

https://www.science.org.au/curious/earth-environment/what-impact-will-covid-19-have-environment 

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-coronavirus-set-to-cause-largest-ever-annual-fall-in-co2-emissions 

http://www.g-feed.com/2020/03/covid-19-reduces-economic-activity.html 

https://www.earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/146362/airborne-nitrogen-dioxide-plummets-over-china

https://www.sciencealert.com/here-s-what-covid-19-is-doing-to-our-pollution-levels

https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/covid-pm