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On the 15th of November, the world population passed 8 billion people. Opinions on this population milestone are varied. Some people have long predicted and continue to anticipate mass worldwide famine and environmental catastrophe as a result of overpopulation. Others worry about the opposite, believing that falling birth rates will eventually result in a population decline, which could result in various economic challenges including hindered economic growth and reduced government funding.
However, it is unlikely that population trends will take any of the drastic paths predicted above. The global population took 12 years, from 1998 to 2010, to grow from 6 billion to 7 billion. This is the same length of time that it has taken to increase from 7 billion to 8 billion. This growth can be attributed to improvements in nutrition and healthcare, resulting in longer lives and falls in infant mortality and maternal deaths in childbirth. The world population even grew despite the tragedies caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
There are no signs that a global demographic decline will occur soon. In fact, the world’s population is expected to peak at 10.4 billion by 2080 and plateau or decline by 2100. Yet, the idea of severe overpopulation is equally unthreatening. Though the population milestone of passing an extra billion seems to be met at equal time intervals, the annual global population growth rate is quickly falling. 50 years ago, the world population growth rate was approximately 2% per year. Now, it is estimated to be below 1% a year. In 2022, it grew by just 0.8%, the lowest the growth rate has been since the 1950s. This can be attributed to decreasing total fertility rate, which has fallen from 3.3% in 1990 to 2.3% this year, which is only slightly above the replacement rate, which is the rate at which the population stays constant, of around 2.1%.
It is notable that, though not indicated by the global average, there are significant regional differences in population trends that indicate certain parts of the world face different consequences as a result of population growth. It is expected that about half of the world’s population growth between now and 2050 will occur in just eight countries in Africa and Asia: Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Tanzania, India, Pakistan, and the Philippines. In the next year, India is expected to overtake China as the world’s most populous country. Africa recently overtook the population of Europe and North America combined. The concentration of population growth in only some parts of the world is guaranteed to have both environmental and social implications.
For example, a 2022 study showed that such human population growth, in combination with climate change, will likely result in significant habitat loss in Africa’s protected areas along with the over-exploitation of natural resources. With regards to the regions facing less rapid increases in population, or even facing falling populations (where the fertility rate is below the replacement level), these countries may house proportionately fewer people of working age to provide for the retired, implying higher taxes and/or lower spending on the elderly, creating an aging population that is less able to support themselves and reducing the human capital available for economies.
Of course, it is unclear whether such population trends will necessarily result in such catastrophic implications. Over the next few decades of continued rises in the average population, rising worldwide productivity in the form of improved technology may mean that fewer workers are needed for production and to support the number of retired people. Technological advances and increased dependence on renewable resources may lessen the environmental damage caused by population changes. The world will likely still face big environmental and social challenges in the years to come, but the population reaching 8 billion does not guarantee demographic disaster.
Sources:
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