Population

Overview

The combined population of Northwest Illinois’ six counties peaked in 1980, rising to just above 240,000 people. After 2000, population declined across the region, excepting for slight upticks in Jo Daviess and Ogle counties in 2010.* Given domestic migration patterns away from rural areas, smaller family size trends, and barriers to immigration, one can still reasonably conclude that the population for the region will drift between stagnation and decline in the years to come.

*Population increased considerably in Carroll County between 2010 and 2020; this is likely a reflection of the new institutionalized and local worker population at Federal Correctional Institution (FCI), Thomson. Growth in Fulton, Whiteside County, may also be attributable to the opening of the federal correctional facility.

Source: US Census, 1900-2020 Decennial Censuses; BHRC Projections

Projections were found using the following calculation: 2020 population*(e^(Growth rate*(Projection year-2020)))

Most of Northwest Illinois' incorporated communities lost population from 2010 to 2020. Notable outliers include Thomson in Carroll County, probably due to FCI Thomson. Other communities experiencing growth likely related to FCI Thomson include Lanark and Shannon (Carroll County) and Fulton (Whiteside County). Byron and Davis Junction (Ogle County) population increases may be explained by exurban growth originating from the Rockford metropolitan area, a large population center and employer of many Northwest Illinois residents.

Top total population losses by county include Savanna in Carroll County (-279), East Dubuque in Jo Daviess County (-199), Dixon in Lee County (-459), Mount Morris in Ogle County (-137), Freeport in Stephenson County (-1,665), and Sterling in Whiteside County (-606).

Source: US Census, 2010-2020 Decennial Censuses

Age Change

In addition to fewer people, Northwest Illinois' population is aging. 2022 Age Distribution as a Percent of Population shows the most numerous age group in dark blue and the least numerous age group in light blue. In Carroll, Jo Daviess, Stephenson, and Whiteside counties, the 60 to 69-year-old age group makes up the largest percentage of the county population. In Lee County, the largest age group is 50 to 59. In Ogle County, the largest age group is tied between 50 to 59 and 10 to 19.

Change in Age Distribution shows that since 2017, the percentage of the regional population 60 and older has increased. Total Difference shows that the total population is growing in the 60 and older age groups and shrinking or stagnant in the under 10 to 59 groups.

As a whole, the United State is aging rapidly. From 2010-2020, those 65 and older increased by a rate of 1,000% or almost five times that of the total population. As seen in the below table, the BHRC region actually has higher concentrations of population in every age group over 60 than the nation or state. This is consistent with the national phenomena of rural areas aging faster than urban areas.

Note: Numbers in the Tooltip marked with † have no listed margin of error. Take care with these statistics.

Source: US Census, ACS 2022 and 2017 5-year

Population Pyramid

Population pyramids show the distribution of a population by age and sex. In a growing population, births outpace deaths, which results in larger young age groups, creating a shape that looks like pyramid.

However, different social and environmental factors lead to shapes other than a pyramid. As seen in the chart to the left, the United States has a curved, pillar-like shape due to people living longer and lower birth rates.

It is unsurprising that many BHRC counties have top-heavy charts. However, of note is how Carroll County's male population sharply increases at the 20 to 24 range, a 177% difference from the female population. The male-heavy population groups from the 20s to the 60s are likely related to the federal correctional facility in Thomson.

Note: Numbers in the Tooltip marked with † have a margin of error is at least 10 percent of the total value of the estimate. Take care with these statistics.

Source: US Census, ACS 2022

Ethnicity & Race (total population)

In 2020, the majority of Northwest Illinois' population identified as non-Hispanic or Latino and white. However, both the Hispanic or Latino and population of color in the region have increased as a percentage of the population since 2010. From 2010 to 2020, the number of people identifying as Hispanic or Latino rose 23.7%, while those identifying as two or more races rose 248.4%. The largest increase for one race by percentage was American Indian and Alaskan Native while the largest total increase was in the Some Other category.

Ethnic and racial data can be complex to parse as it is based on how individuals self-identify, which can change over time. Additionally, changes to census design may allow a person to more accurately report their ethnic or racial identity from one census to the next. For example, the same individual that reported as solely Black or African American in 2010 may have chosen Some Other in 2020. Further, for numerous reasons, minority populations may be undercounted, meaning the true population of those Hispanic or Latino or persons of color may be greater than what has been officially noted.

Source: US Census, 2020 and 2010 Redistricting Data for Race

Ethnicity & Race (students)

Another source for racial and ethnic data is the Illinois State Board of Education's (ISBE) enrollment counts. The numbers for the table to the right are for serving districts (districts where students are being educated).

The percentage of students who identify as Hispanic has increased since 2014 in every school district except Polo CUSD 222. The number of students of color has also increased as a percentage of the population in all but two districts.

Starting in the 2021 Fall Enrollment Reports, ISBE marked any category with less than 10 students as <10. As it is impossible to accurately assess with data readily available whether there has been a population change, districts with a <10 in a specific category were removed from that category. Additionally, although ISBE counts American Indian or Alaska Native as well as Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander, no school district in the BHRC region had a count greater than 9 for these populations, so they were not included.

ISBE counts any student that identifies as Hispanic only in the Hispanic category and does not include them in the count for any other race they may have chosen. Therefore, BHRC schools may be even more racially/ethnically diverse than a cursory review of the data suggests.

*Data for West Carroll CUSD 314 does not include Early Step Preschool.

Sources: Illinois State Board of Education, 2014 and 2023 Fall Enrollment Counts

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