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How do I know what hazards to expect in the backcountry?
How do I know what hazards to expect in the backcountry?
The second step in planning before you even enter the backcountry is to Anticipate the Hazard. This simply means checking the resources you have available so that your group can name the weather and avalanche hazards you expect to encounter.
The Why
The Why
You are actively managing human factors by cultivating a plan before you step foot into the mountains. Attempting to assess risks in the field with a reactive, intuitive brain, influenced by beautiful weather and allure of untracked snow invites the pressures of social influence and impaired objectivity. Planning in the comforts of your favorite coffee shop, rested, and well fed allows us to slow down our thinking and engage the deliberate and rational side of our brain.
This is also the first step in the process of gaining intentional experience. Make a prediction about the hazard, what you expect to find, and how our group will perform. Then observe it in the field so you can compare your findings at the end of the day. Anticipating the hazard will inform where you go by discussing where it is safe to travel and how your group will manage hazards as you move through terrain. As you advise your team on foreseeable hazards and conditions, the group can make choices on gear, food, and water needed for the day.
The Information — Weather and Avalanche
The Information — Weather and Avalanche
Anticipating the hazard first requires identifying and accessing reliable sources for the current and forecasted weather. The best place to start in the US is avalanche.org. In Canada that is avalanche.ca. There you can find information from public forecasters about both the avalanche hazard and mountain weather. If you don't have a local avalanche center find a professional such as a local guide service or ski patrol that can point you to reliable sources of avalanche hazard and weather information.
Your AIARE course will include a discussion of resources available to you in your local area along with time using those resources with coaching from your instructor on your course.
Jacob Lund from Noun Project
Establish a Routine
Establish a Routine
Routines provide structure, efficiency, and assurance that you accomplish prioritized tasks throughout our day. Set yourself up for success and develop a routine for accumulating the information you need for the weather forecast and avalanche advisory for each trip. Below are a few tips.
Follow a sequence: weather forecast -> real-time weather station -> avalanche advisory ->public observations
Set up alerts and automated emails from your local avalanche center
Bookmark your favorite websites for weather
Check the forecast and advisory everyday, even if you are not going into the mountains
Follow certain hashtags, expert accounts, or your local avalanche center on social media
Record the information in your phone or a fieldbook
This page walks you through the process of Anticipating the Hazard with your group. The following pages in this section provide additional information about how weather impacts the hazard, avalanche problems and avalanche danger.
Discuss current & forecast weather factors that can affect travel or hazard
Discuss current & forecast weather factors that can affect travel or hazard
Once you have weather and forecast information, discuss the weather trends and weather factors that might affect travel or hazard as well as the team’s ability to communicate and/or travel together. Make notes not on the conditions, but how the conditions will impact your group. For example, simply recording that it will be windy in the afternoon doesn't ensure that everyone in your group is on the same page as to how the wind impacts the hazard.
Discuss the impacts, such as decreased visibility to be able to observe ridgelines, or continuing transport of snow may increase the potential for wind slabs, or even that the wind will reduce the group's ability to communicate. Discuss how the timing of those factors and trends impacts the group’s travel plans. Every member should have an idea of the trend and how it will affect travel in the terrain. Record the notes of your discussion in your Fieldbook.
Questions to help your group discuss this section include:
Questions to help your group discuss this section include:
Are weather or conditions causing the increasing or decreasing trends in the hazard?
Are there any key factors that have been observed or forecasted that might affect travel or the ability to communicate and make decisions as a group?
Identify the avalanche problem and location. Discuss the danger trend and timing.
Identify the avalanche problem and location. Discuss the danger trend and timing.
After discussing the weather, discuss the avalanche problems, where they are and what that means for the danger trend and timing. Use the danger rating for the day as a starting point for discussion about the danger trend and timing. Record the problems, where they are expected and most importantly what this means for the hazard and timing you expect to encounter.
Look for reports of hazardous conditions in the forecast or from other backcountry users:
Look for reports of hazardous conditions in the forecast or from other backcountry users:
Signs of avalanche activity on day of your trip or from the day before
Reports of whumping or shooting cracks
Overhanging or drooping cornices
Reports of a slab above a weak layer
Discuss the advisory's key message.
Discuss the advisory's key message.
Summarize the discussion by reviewing the key message by the avalanche center. If there is no message available, work as a group to summarize one or two key points about the hazard to keep front in center both while planning and outside in the backcountry. Write down that key message to reinforce the point and have it as a reference.
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