PLAN: Summary and Review

Safety margins are a common theme in assessing hazards. This refers to the amount of space between you and the potential risk. By “space” we are not always referring to physical distance but the space or buffer you and your team hypothetically create by crafting an effective plan, identifying human factors, selecting appropriate terrain, reading the avalanche advisory, building awareness around what could go wrong, packing the right gear, etc. The more planning preparation you engage in before your outing, the more likely you are to execute with ease, handle an emergency, and maximize your learning. Be sure your margins are appropriate for your experience with the current conditions. The PLAN portion of the AIARE Framework helps you accomplish this.

Unfortunately, those of us with a high level of education and experience are prone to errors, especially when operating in the presence of human factors, unusual conditions, and within an arena that provides meager feedback. All of these elements are prevalent in winter mountain environments. Consider for a moment how challenging it truly is to gain expertise in this area. Avalanches are most frequent only half the year meaning your window of opportunity to interact, observe, and learn from them is short. They only provide feedback when they actually occur which means that avalanches NOT occurring IS NOT quality feedback. Finally, the medium is constantly changing. If you can only recreate on the weekends, you are not getting the full picture. If our perceptions and decision making skills are based on our understanding of patterns and cause and effect, what does it mean if we are not getting quality feedback? Consider this “wicked environment” while planning and determining how much skill and experience you actually possess. Read more about these ideas in Bruce Kay's book, Autonomy, Mastery, and Purpose (Kay, 2015).

The human brain can justify a lot of bad decisions in the heat of the moment. To avoid letting desires cloud your judgment, it is important to make critical decisions including where to go and where not to go prior to the start of any trip. The PLAN YOUR TRIP portion of The AIARE Framework guides us through intentionally Assembling a Group with similar risks tolerance and objectives, Anticipating the Hazard through avalanche advisories and expert advice, Planning to Manage Avalanche Terrain by considering the team and conditions and allows for consensus and Discussing an Emergency Plan in the event something goes wrong.