IPY 2007-2008: Investigation of the impact of western Arctic volcanic eruption on weather and climate


Motivation: During the International Polar Year (IPY) many measurements were made in the Arctic. iDuring that time many volcanoes of the western Arctic have been highly active and emitted large amounts of particles, heat, water vapor and trace gases into the atmosphere; Fourpeaked, a volcano that has not been active for more than 10,000 years, started emitting smoke. Redoubt erupted in iMarch 2009. Knowing what the impact of volcanic eruptions on local weather may have will help to assess how IPY measurements were impacted by volcanic eruptions, i.e. distinguish between climate variablity/change and external forcing.

Goal: The aim of our activities was to separate the variance in weather and climate ascribable to volcanic effects.

Method: We performed various simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) to analyze various aspects of influence of volcanic eruptions on local weather. A series of hypothesis tests encompassing all individual and interaction factor effects was carried out applying an ANalysis Of VARiance (ANOVA) approach. ANOVA separates the variance as­cribable to one group of causes from variance ascribable to other groups. This means the total variation present in a simulated quantity (e.g. temperature) is partitioned into components, with each component attributed to one identifiable source of variation (e.g. heat release). The ANOVA was performed for the entire model domain and for smaller radii around the volcano similar to Mölders and Olson (2004). Applying the ANOVA for different radii permits to assess the radius of impact of the eruption on local weather. Some results of these investigations can be found in Brown (2008).

Personnel: Nicole Mölders, Morgan E. Browni (now M.B. Yarker), Stacy E. Porter

Sponsor: CIFAR NOAA

Publications:

Final report: