Fire Weather

Development of a fire weather forecasting system for Interior Alaska

Goal:

A fire weather forecasting system is to be developed for Interior Alaska.

Work performed:

The impact of fire scars on weather and climate has been investigated. Obviously young fire scars yield to more glaciation of clouds. The graupel formation becomes more likely. As graupel is a prerequiste for lightning formation one has to conclude that young firescars yield to new fires. Furthermore they yield a shift in where precipitation occurs. For further information see Mölders and Kramm (2007). On regional average, they yield to drier conditions, but they may enhance the risk of flash floods in their immediate downwind. On climate scale, young fire scars also yield regionally drier conditions.

WRF was coupled with the National Fire danger Rating system. The performance of the coupled modeling package has been evaluated with respect to fire weather forecast and fire indices.

Personnel: Nicole Mölders, Gerhard Kramm

Sponsor: GI

References:

Mölders, N. , and G. Kramm, 2007: Influence of wildfire induced land-cover changes on clouds and precipitation in Interior Alaska – A case study. Atmos. Res., 84 , 142-168.

Mölders, N., 2008. Suitability of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to predict the June 2005 fire weather for Interior Alaska. Wea. Forecast.23: 953-973. pdf

Mölders, N., 2009. Comparison of Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System and National Fire Danger Rating System fire indices derived from Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model data for the June 2005 Interior Alaska wildfires. Atmos. Res. (in press)