By the end of this Unit, participants will have a working understanding of:
Insider and outsider approaches to shaping AI policy
The relationship between international AI policy and national strategy
How the current opportunity landscape for shaping AI policy affects the prospects of these approaches
Total time ~45 minutes
This blog post argues against an impulse common in discussions about theories of change, where open-minded evaluation is supplanted by preconceived judgment, reasonable as that judgment may be. The orientation this post prescribes enables greater recognition of viable approaches to shaping policy.
The discussion in this podcast episode is squarely about theories of change in AI policymaking, making it a strong starting point for this week’s content in several respects. It introduces insider approaches to shaping policy and what they might look like with respect to AI policy; it references a punctuated equilibrium theory of AI policy change. It also contains discussion of what international AI governance should aim for and what those aims imply for national AI policy strategy.
Go Mobilize? Lessons from GM Protests on Pausing AI by Charlie Harrison - introduction and conclusion
This post gives an overview of the effectiveness of protests for pausing AI development, laying out the case for an outsider approach to AI policy.
AI Safety Policy Can’t Go On Like This by Anton Leicht
This post identifies the constraints of the opportunity landscape for shaping AI policy circa early 2025. It lays out the current prospects for the approaches explored in resources 2 and 3 and models how we might apply these theories in crafting a Canadian AI policy strategy.
The terms “insider approach” and “outsider approach” reference the idea of inside-outside strategies to changing policy. Individuals and groups can attempt to act both as insiders and outsiders, though this decision comes with tradeoffs. Consider what these tradeoffs might be and how they might be amplified or attenuated by features of the current AI policy landscape as per resource 4 of the Readings.
Governing from the Centre – The Concentration of Power in Canadian Politics by Donal J. Savoie, ch. 5, 8, and 9
This book gives a thorough treatment of the inner workings of the Canadian government and how its components work together. Much of the challenge of developing a theory of change for policy lies in determining who must be convinced of the change. The understanding imparted by this book can inform who the relevant actors in need of convincing may be.
Policy Concepts in 1000 Words by Paul Cairney
This blog series provides clear introductions to foundational ideas in the study of public policy. See in particular the posts on punctuated equilibrium theory and incrementalism.
The Rise and Importance of Secret Congress
This blog post, referenced in resource 4, lays out a distinct approach to shaping policy as an insider. While worthy of consideration, the mechanics of its theory of change rests on unique features of the American political system; it is unclear to what extent it is viable in a Canadian context.
Inside Britain’s plan to save the world from runaway AI by Vincent Manancourt
This as well as the following article give detail to the founding of the UK AISI, which could help contextualize this unit’s presentation on the AISI’s founding.
Inside the U.K.’s bold experiment in AI safety by Billy Perrigo
See directly above
Types of Research Publications and Their Roles in AI Governance Work, by The Future Society
This resource provides an overview of common kinds of policy outputs. It can give you a feel for this work and whether you might enjoy working on similar policy research projects.