An Election Watch piece examines developments related to the holding of elections in a given country, focusing on violent developments during election periods. 

Where relevant, the analysis should reflect on the previous election as well as other developments that may be relevant for the upcoming election. An Election Watch piece should include the following:

• Well-defined scope and theme on one aspect of election-time disorder, using ACLED data as evidence to support an argument or provide context

• A thesis statement that can be fully formed in 800 to 1,000 words.

• A clear takeaway, but not a prediction of election results

The report should have a well-defined scope and focus on one aspect of election-time disorder, i.e., disorder that could impact the election or election developments that could impact disorder.

While the trends analyzed do not have to be directly focused on electoral violence (e.g., burning of ballots or violence targeting candidates), they must in some way relate to the elections (e.g., anti-government rioting, and increased militancy coinciding with the electoral cycle). 

Election Watch pieces explain the most critical aspects of elections with regards to conflict and political violence and their significance, for example: 

• This Pakistan report looked at militant activity 

• This Turkey report explored how state forces dealt with Kurdish political opposition 

• This Greece report looked at the normalization of political violence

ACLED also produces series on significant elections, such as for Mexico and India, or election coverage as part of a larger project such as for the US Crisis Monitor. 

Consider the following: 

• The conditions under which the elections are taking place, i.e.,

  • Is there a history of election repression? Is there a lack of transparency? Is there weak governance? Have previous election results been disputed? Is there an expectation that violence will occur around the election? Has organized crime interfered in previous elections? Is there a history of violence between opposing groups?

• The consequences of disorder on the electoral process, i.e.,

  • Voter turnout, intimidation or targeting of candidates, undermining democratic principles, damage to public trust, and legitimacy of the electoral process. 

  • Potential for continued violence after the election. 

The main theme may not always be immediately obvious. To find it, the author should first have a clear understanding of the country’s political situation, and its electoral process, and must have looked at ACLED data for the country, from the last elections to the present, to detect whether any disorder trends related to the elections have taken place. It’s essential to choose a topic that is both relevant and captivating (so preferably not one that has already been discussed regularly in the media) and that allows ACLED data to be used throughout to support the arguments. 

When finding a theme, you should prioritize notable violent incidents over mere increases in peaceful protests. Focus on elements that stand out for their significance or distinct characteristics. The theme has to be related to the elections, even if indirectly (for instance, when disorder has not been a priori prompted by elections specifically, but it correlates recurrently with election periods). The connection will typically rest on how a specific type of disorder may either impact elections or be impacted by them.

In the body of the piece, support your argument(s) with data from ACLED, or use alternative sources if ACLED does not cover data for that specific argument. 

When looking at ACLED data, consider the following questions: 

• Is there an increase in state repression? Consider government crackdown on demonstrations, and intimidation of political opponents through arrests or attacks. Often information on repression will be found in external sources rather than ACLED data.

• Is there an increase in demonstrations around election time? Why? Are they directly related to elections or are they anti-government? What proportion of these are violent? Is the state trying to repress them close to the elections? 

• Is there violence against members of political parties/candidates/local administrators/government officials? Has this increased during election periods?

• Are there existing conflicts/hotpoints (i.e., separatist movements) and how have they reacted to elections?

• Is the timeframe I am looking at one that can be compared? For example, you can compare it to the same period last year (without elections) or to the previous elections. 

However, it’s easy to get influenced by digging into the data and losing sight of a single focus. Remember, it is not necessary to explain everything that could happen — just focus on one significant aspect that can be supported by ACLED data.

Finally, remember that you can incorporate other ACLED tools into your analysis to provide further evidence for your claims:

Conflict Alert System (CAST)
If you expect a trend to continue in the future, use the CAST forecasts to back up your claim.

• In Mexico, the surge in violence during the first half of 2024 will very likely extend during the rest of the year, as ACLED’s Conflict Alert System forecasts indicate elevated levels of violence for the upcoming months. 

Conflict Exposure
If you are discussing events that have had a notable impact on civilians (e.g., a spike in violence between armed groups, mass killings, displacement, or armed curfews/restrictions to mobility), use the population exposure figures to illustrate the extent of such impact.

• In Chiapas, a spike in clashes between the Jalisco New Generation Cartel and the Sinaloa Cartel had an unprecedented impact on civilians, as more than 268,000 people were exposed to battles involving the two groups according to ACLED's Conflict Exposure estimates, and at least 580 residents had to flee to Guatemala.

Trendfinder 

• Trends chart: This chart lets us quickly determine if weeks during the month show anomalous activity.

  • In Haiti, the beginning of the MSS mission operations and the arrival of a second contingent of Kenyan police officers led to a higher-than-average level of violence between 20 and 26 July, according to ACLED’s Trendfinder.

• Country change level map: This map indicates the levels of change in activity at the country level.

• Exchanges between the IDF and Hezbollah continue to deteriorate the security situation in Lebanon and Israel, as both countries recorded large increases in violence, according to ACLED’s Trendfinder.  

Election Watch pieces are normally published one to two weeks prior to an election.

In some cases, ACLED may also produce a very short (less than 800 words) follow-up post-election report that examines how conflict dynamics have evolved due to events during the election. Longer formats may be considered in certain circumstances.

The Election Watch series is designed to provide easily digestible content for a broad ACLED audience. Therefore, it is important to ensure that the title and section headings are intriguing, concise, and free of jargon or data-heavy references.

Title

Standard Election Watch report title format should normally include the country and what is the biggest takeaway regarding disorder. Consider the following:

• Try to be succinct, while also using captivating or interesting verbs to allude to the focus of the piece. 

• The title should clearly indicate the election focus, but you can also use synonyms like “the vote,” “polls,” etc. instead of “election.” 

• Mention the ‘ACLED angle’ of the report, but without using concepts such as disorder or civilian targeting that the average reader may not know. For example, consider these terms: turmoil, tensions, risk, threats, escalation of violence

• Avoid mentioning increases or decreases in stats - but you can allude to them in a more abstract way i.e. “Rising tensions” instead of “increased political violence”

• These are some example formats to think of, but you are not limited to them - be unique! 

  • Country: XX ahead of election, The risks of XX in Country’s vote, XXX looms over the election

Example titles:

Georgia: An “existential” election

Mexico’s land and elections feuds threaten political figures in Oaxaca and Chiapas  

When is quiet too quiet? Understanding shifts in extremist mobilization in 2024

Section headings

Subheadings for each section should not focus on the data-based trend but rather allude to a major takeaway from the section. 

Example section headings:

Vigilantes respond to heightened Insecurity in 2023

ZANU-PF’s strict enforcement of party loyalty

Crackdown on Kurdish political movements

Hawkish regional policies in northern Iraq and Syria

The final section, which includes the key takeaways and a forward-looking discussion (but not an election result prediction!), should avoid the ‘Looking forward’ heading and instead allude to the main takeaway. 

Example final section headings:

Normalization of political violence likely to endure

Multiple challenges for a brief tenure

Unclear political succession and factionalization

A watershed election