LCHL Use of the counting method to evaluate probabilities
The probability of an event occurring: students progress from informal to formal descriptions of probability. Predicting and determining probabilities.
Difference between experimental and theoretical probability
Interactive files for Statistics & Probability
I should know how to:
Foundation Level
– decide whether an everyday event is likely or unlikely to occur
– recognise that probability is a measure on a scale of 0-1 of how likely an event is to occur
– use the language of probability to discuss events, including those with equally likely outcomes
– estimate probabilities from experimental data
– recognise that, if an experiment is repeated, there will be different outcomes and that increasing the number of times an experiment is repeated generally leads to better estimates of probability
– associate the probability of an event with its long-run, relative frequency
Ordinary Level
– use set theory to discuss experiments, outcomes, sample spaces
− discuss basic rules of probability (AND/OR, mutually exclusive) through the use of Venn diagrams
− calculate expected value and understand that this does not need to be one of the outcomes
− recognise the role of expected value in decision making and explore the issue of fair games
Higher Level
− extend their understanding of the basic rules of probability (AND/OR, mutually exclusive) through the use of formulae
• Addition Rule: P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B)
• Multiplication Rule (Independent Events): P(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B)
• Multiplication Rule (General Case): P(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P (B | A)
− (solve problems involving conditional probability in a systematic way)
− solve problems involving sampling, with or without replacement
− appreciate that in general P(A | B) ≠ P (B | A)
− examine the implications of P(A | B) ≠ P (B | A) in context
Teaching Probability Using Carnival Games
Project Maths: Overview of Probability with examples
Project Maths: Probability with set notation
Project Maths: Probability examples