Recent Publications
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Social vulnerability to large wildfires in the western USA
Palaiologou Palaiologos, Alan Ager, Max Nielsen-Pincus, Cody Evers*, Michelle Day.
Landscape and Urban Planning (2019), 189:99-116. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2019.04.006.
Federal land managers in the US can be informed with quantitative assessments of the social conditions of the populations affected by wildfires originating on their administered lands in order to incorporate and adapt their management strategy to achieve a more targeted prioritization of community wildfire protection investments. In addition, these assessments are valuable to socially vulnerable communities for quantifying their exposure to wildfires originating on adjacent land tenures. We assessed fire transmission patterns using fire behavior simulations to understand spatial variations across three diverse study areas (North-central Washington; Central California; and Northern New Mexico) to understand how different land tenures affect highly socially vulnerable populated places. Transboundary wildfire structure exposure was related to populations with limited adaptive capacity to absorb, recover and modify exposure to wildfires, estimated with the Social Vulnerability Index using US Census unit data (block groups). We found geographic heterogeneity in terms of land tenure composition and estimated fire exposure. Although high social vulnerability block groups covered small areas, they had high population and structure density and were disproportionately exposed per area burned by fire. Structure exposure originated primarily from three key land tenures (wildland-urban interface, private lands and national forests). Federal lands proportionately exposed, on an area basis, populated places with high social vulnerability, with fires ignited on Forest Service administered lands mostly affecting north-central Washington and northern New Mexico communities.
Archetypes of community wildfire exposure from national forests in the western U.S.
Cody Evers*, Alan Ager, Max Nielsen-Pincus, Palaiologou Palaiologos, Karen Short, and Ken Bunzel.
Landscape and Urban Planning (2019), 182: 55-66. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2018.10.004.
Risk management typologies and their resulting archetypes can structure the many social and biophysical drivers of community wildfire risk into a set number of strategies to build community resilience. Existing typologies omit key factors that determine the scale and mechanism by which exposure from large wildfires occur. These factors are particularly important for land managing agencies like the US Forest Service, which must weigh community wildfire exposure against other management priorities. We analyze community wildfire exposure from national forests by associating conditions that affect exposure in the areas where wildfires ignite to conditions where exposure likely occurs. Linking source and exposure areas defines the scale at which crossboundary exposure from large wildfires occurs and the scale at which mitigation actions need to be planned. We find that the vast majority of wildfire exposure from national forests is concentrated among a fraction of communities that are geographically clustered in discrete pockets. Among these communities, exposure varies primarily based on development patterns and vegetation gradients and secondarily based on social and ecological management constraints. We describe five community exposure archetypes along with their associated risk mitigation strategies. Only some archetypes have conditions that support hazardous fuels programs. Others have conditions where managing community exposure through vegetation management is unlikely to suffice. These archetypes reflect the diversity of development patterns, vegetation types, associated fuels, and management constraints that exist in the western US and provide a framework to guide public investments that improve management of wildfire risk within threatened communities and on the public lands that transmit fires to them.
Assessing local attitudes and perceptions of non-native species to inform management of novel ecosystems
Casey Lewis*, Elise Granek, Max Nielsen-Pincus
Biological Invasions (2019), 21:961-982. URL: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-018-1875-0.
The formation of novel ecosystems by non-native species poses management challenges that are both socially and ecologically complex. Negative attitudes towards non-native species can complicate management in cases where non-native species provide ecosystem service benefits. Due to their intentional introduction over a century ago, non-native mangroves in Hawai’i present a unique case study. Although some have called for eradication of mangroves from Hawai’i, an active management approach may ultimately offer the greatest benefits to both the ecosystem and society by allowing mangroves to persist in locations where they provide habitat and crabbing access, while limiting their extent in other locations to protect native bird habitat and allow for beach and ocean access. We evaluated (1) attitudes and perceptions about non-native mangroves, (2) factors influencing these attitudes, and (3) support for different management approaches by surveying residents of Moloka’i, Hawai’i (n = 204). Negative attitudes towards mangroves were influenced by a lack of reliance on mangroves for benefit and a concern about threats to Moloka’i’s coast. Active management was supported by 88% of residents, while 41% supported eradication. Among the 88% in favor of active management, 24% of written in responses expressed a need for maintaining the benefits of mangroves and 67% described reducing the negative impacts, while 4% acknowledged both the benefit and harm the species has on the environment. As successful non-native species management may be dependent on local support, we emphasize that understanding human attitudes and perceptions is beneficial for nonnative species managers in any location. Results from our study highlight the importance of understanding social attitudes towards non-native species management strategies from propagation to eradication. We conclude with a framework for integrating stakeholder attitudes and beliefs into novel ecosystem management.
Local capacity to engage in federal wildfire suppression efforts: An explanation of variability in local capture of suppression contracts.
Nielsen-Pincus, M., Cody Evers*, Cassandra Moseley, Patrick Bixler, and Heidi Huber-Stearns
Forest Science (2018), 64:480-490. DOI: 10.1093/forsci/fxy011.
The US National Cohesive Wildland Fire Management Strategy emphasizes the importance of resilient forests and local community capacity in preparation for and response to wildfires. Despite this emphasis, it is unclear whether local business capacity is a predictor of local participation in federally managed wildfire response. Drawing on concepts from economic geography, we hypothesize that the local capture of federal contracting during large wildfire suppression events will be greater in counties that have more firms experienced with federal natural resource management contracting. To test this hypothesis, we investigated the contracting patterns of 135 large wildfire suppression efforts and found that local capture of suppression contracting was higher for fires that occurred in counties where there were more vendors involved in federal, non-fire-related contracting. Counties with more diversified economies were also more likely to capture suppression contracting opportunities than counties with more specialized economies. Our findings suggest that the resilient forests and fire-adapted community goals envisioned by the National Cohesive Wildland Fire Management Strategy can be supported by the development of natural resource management capacity that is nationally decentralized and locally diversified.
Public perceptions of mountain lake fisheries management in national parks
Ariana Chiapella*, Max Nielsen-Pincus, and Angela Strecker
Journal of Environmental Management (2018), 226:169-179.
The legacy of fish stocking in mountain lake ecosystems has left behind a challenge for land managers around the globe. In the US and Canada, historically fishless mountain lakes have been stocked with trout for over a century. These non-native trout have cascading ecosystem effects, and can accumulate atmospherically deposited contaminants. While the negative impacts of stocking in these ecosystems have become increasingly apparent, wilderness fishing has garnered cultural value in the angling community. As a result, public lands managers are left with conflicting priorities. National park managers across the western US are actively trying to reconcile the cultural and ecological values of mountain lakes through the development of management plans for mountain lake fisheries. However, visitors' social perceptions, attitudes, and values regarding mountain lake fisheries management have remained unquantified, and thus largely left out of the decision-making process. Our study evaluated the recreation habits, values, and attitudes of national park visitors towards fish stocking and management of mountain lakes of two national parks in the Pacific Northwest. We found that most visitors favor fish removal using a conservation approach, whereby sensitive lakes are restored, while fish populations are maintained in lakes that are more resilient. An important consideration for managers is that many mountain lake anglers consume fish on an annual basis, thus we emphasize the use of outreach and education regarding the accumulation of contaminants in fish tissues. Our findings help elucidate the conflicting views of stakeholders, and we provide recommendations to inform management of mountain lakes fisheries in North America and abroad.
Palailogou, P., A.A. Ager, C.R. Evers*, M. Nielsen-Pincus, and K. Kalabokidis.
International Journal of Wildland Fire, Published online July 23, 2018.
Numerous catastrophic wildfires in Greece have demonstrated that relying on fire suppression as the primary risk-management strategy is inadequate and that existing wildfire-risk governance needs to be re-examined. In this research, we used simulation modelling to assess the spatial scale of wildfire exposure to communities and cultural monuments in Chalkidiki, Greece. The study area typifies many areas in Greece in terms of fire regimes, ownership patterns and fire-risk mitigation. Fire-transmission networks were built to quantify connectivity among land tenures and populated places. We found that agricultural and unmanaged wildlands are key land categories that transmit fire exposure to other land tenures. In addition, fires ignited within protected lands and community boundaries are major sources of structure exposure. Important cultural monuments in the study area had fairly low exposure but higher potential for fires with moderate to high intensity. The results show how the spatial diversity of vegetation and fuels, in combination with vegetation management practices on private and public tracts of land, contribute to transboundary risk. We use the results to motivate a discussion of integrating transboundary risk assessments to improve the current wildfire-risk rating system and begin the process of reforming risk governance in Greece.
Nielsen-Pincus, M., C. Evers*, C. Moseley, R.P. Bixler, and H. Huber-Stearns.
Forest Science, Published online June 9, 2018.
The US National Cohesive Wildland Fire Management Strategy emphasizes the importance of resilient forests and local community capacity in preparation for and response to wildfires. Despite this emphasis, it is unclear whether local business capacity is a predictor of local participation in federally managed wildfire response. Drawing on concepts from economic geography, we hypothesize that the local capture of federal contracting during large wildfire suppression events will be greater in counties that have more firms experienced with federal natural resource management contracting. To test this hypothesis, we investigated the contracting patterns of 135 large wildfire suppression efforts and found that local capture of suppression contracting was higher for fires that occurred in counties where there were more vendors involved in federal, non-fire-related contracting. Counties with more diversified economies were also more likely to capture suppression contracting opportunities than counties with more specialized economies. Our findings suggest that the resilient forests and fire-adapted community goals envisioned by the National Cohesive Wildland Fire Management Strategy can be supported by the development of natural resource management capacity that is nationally decentralized and locally diversified.
Daniels, J.M., M. Nielsen-Pincus, M. Paruszkiewicz*, and N. Poage.
Journal of Forestry (2018), 116(3):245-256.
We conducted an economic analysis of two case study stewardship contracts on the Mount Hood National Forest in western Oregon. Stewardship contracting has been embraced by some federal managers to achieve restoration goals while providing economic benefits to local communities. Little is known about economic contributions from stewardship contracts, including how they compare against Secure Rural Schools funding or the century-old payments to counties revenue sharing system. Using expenditure data from sale purchasers, contractors, and fiscal agents, we developed methodology to track spending and used IMPLAN software to estimate economic contributions and multipliers. Results showed that (1) commercial thinning, service work, and retained receipts projects all contributed to local economic activity; (2) expenditures accounted for $4 million in output and generated 36 jobs, with output and job multipliers of 1.42 and 1.82, respectively; and (3) benefits were distributed across a wider variety of economic sectors than timber harvesting alone.
Ecosystem Services as Boundary Objects for Transdisciplinary Conservation.
Steger, C., S. Hirsch, C. Evers*, B. Branoff, M. Petrova, M. Nielsen-Pincus, C. Wardropper, and C.J. van Riper.
Ecological Economics (2018), 143: 153-160.
The ecosystem services (ES) framework has potential to bring transdisciplinary teams together to achieve societal goals. Some label ES as “boundary objects” that help integrate diverse forms of knowledge across social groups and organizational scales. However, this classification masks complexities that arise from unique characteristics of ES types (i.e., provisioning, regulating, and cultural), which influence their ability to function as boundary objects. We argue that interpretive flexibility and material structures interact in distinct ways across ES types throughout a boundary object “life cycle.” Viewing a 2015 U.S. federal memorandum as a catalyst, we critically evaluate the evolution of ES and its role as a boundary object. We propose that provisioning and regulating services are transitioning out of boundary object status, moving into a more standardized state. However, we anticipate that cultural services may continue to behave as boundary objects if collaborators maintain them as such. This shift in the functionality of ES as boundary objects is an important consideration for future research that attempts to reach across social worlds and disciplinary perspectives. We urge collaborations to rely on the most relevant disciplinary knowledge, rather than allowing the ease of standardized solutions to dictate the boundary of a given problem.
The Influence of Place on the Willingness to Pay for Ecosystem Services.
Nielsen-Pincus, M., P. Hickson*, D. Bennett, H. Gosnell, and R. Parker.
Society and Natural Resources (2017), 30(12):1423-1441.
Sense of place, including an individual’s attitudes toward specific geographic settings, is generally predicted to influence willingness to engage in place-protective behaviors. Relatively little research, however, has empirically examined the influence of people’s attitudes toward a place on their willingness to pay for environmental protection. Using the example of a payment for ecosystem services (PES) initiative in the McKenzie River watershed, Oregon, USA, we found that place attitudes were a significant predictor of respondents’ willingness to pay for a program designed to benefit drinking water quality. These results suggest that connecting conservation actions to landscapes that are meaningful to people may increase their financial support for PES and other conservation programs. While program managers have little or no influence over stakeholders’ political ideology, gender, or income, managers may be able to influence prospective PES buyers’ awareness and attitudes through targeted communications, thereby potentially increasing support for place-based conservation efforts.
Choosing the right policy tools to encourage watershed stewardship through the study of attitude.
Deangelo, M.* and M. Nielsen-Pincus.
Society and Natural Resources (2017), 30(11):1328-1342.
Recently, a number of “Payment for Watershed Services” programs have aimed to engage private landowners in watershed stewardship initiatives by offering financial incentives for adopting watershed best management practices. However, a growing field of research suggests that financial incentives alone may be of limited utility to encourage widespread and long-standing behavior change, and other policy tools may be required. This research examines how attitudes may influence enrollment in watershed stewardship programs to shed light the application of incentive, capacity building, and symbolic policy tools. We distributed a questionnaire to rural landowners in the Clackamas River watershed, OR, and received 281 valid responses (29% response rate). We found that attitudes associated with trust, ecological understanding, and technical capacity played more fundamental roles compared with financial considerations. We interpret these findings by evaluating the likely efficacy of various policy tools, and stress the importance of engaging landowners by building capacity and trust.
Vizek, A.* and M. Nielsen-Pincus.
Society and Natural Resources (2017), 30(9):1080-1095.
Private land conservation provides an opportunity to address problems of habitat fragmentation and biodiversity loss caused by an increase in the development and parcelization of private land. Conservation easements (CEs) are used to protect significant natural qualities of private land. In this study, we explore landowner attitudes toward CEs through the implementation of a mixed-mode survey to private landowners in the Whychus Creek Watershed (Deschutes County, Oregon). The results of an exploratory factor analysis suggest there are two dimensions to landowner attitudes toward CEs, an internal dimension and an external dimension. We found that positive external attitudes are primarily influenced by environmental beliefs, whereas positive internal attitudes are influenced by a suite of factors, including financial beliefs and perceived risk to private ownership. Awareness of CEs may also play a role in attitude development. Through this research, we argue that CEs may be beneficial in reintegrating the public good into private property.
Wildfire risk as a socio-ecological pathology.
Fischer, A.P., T.A. Spies, T.A. Steelman, C. Moseley, B.R. Johnson, J.D. Bailey, A.A. Ager, P. Bourgeron, S. Charnley, B.M. Collins, J.D. Kline, J.E. Leahy, J.S. Littell, J.D.A. Millington, M. Nielsen-Pincus, C.S. Olsen, T.B. Paveglio, C.I. Roos, M.M. Steen-Adams, F.R. Stevens, J. Vukomanovic, E.M. White, D.M.J.S. Bowman.
Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment (2016), 14(5):276-284.
Wildfire risk in temperate forests has become a nearly intractable problem that can be characterized as a socioecological “pathology”: that is, a set of complex and problematic interactions among social and ecological systems across multiple spatial and temporal scales. Assessments of wildfire risk could benefit from recognizing and accounting for these interactions in terms of socioecological systems, also known as coupled natural and human systems (CNHS). We characterize the primary social and ecological dimensions of the wildfire risk pathology, paying particular attention to the governance system around wildfire risk, and suggest strategies to mitigate the pathology through innovative planning approaches, analytical tools, and policies. We caution that even with a clear understanding of the problem and possible solutions, the system by which human actors govern fire‐prone forests may evolve incrementally in imperfect ways and can be expected to resist change even as we learn better ways to manage CNHS.