In this work, the environmental precursors of infectious epidemic of dengue fever in the Metropolitan Area of Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil were investigated using a numerical model that parametrizes the infection and reinfection of human population in function of environmental enthalpy and accumulation of water in Aedes aegypti larvae breedings. The period considered extend between 2000 and 2011, in which it was possible to pair meteorological data and the reporting of dengue patients worsening. These data should also be considered in the numerical model, by assimilation, to obtain simulations of Dengue epidemics. The model contains compartments for the human population, for vector mosquito Aedes aegypti and also for four virus serotypes. The results provide consistent evidence that worsening infection and disease outbreaks are due to the occurrence of environmental precursors, as the dynamics of the accumulation of water in the breeding and energy availability in the form of metabolic activation enthalpy during pre-epidemic periods.
KARAM, H.A.; SILVA, J.C.B.; PEREIRA FILHO, A.J; FLORES R., J.L. (2016) Dynamic Modelling of Dengue Epidemics in Function of Available Enthalpy and Rainfall. Open Journal of Epidemiology, 6, 50-79. doi: 10.4236/ojepi.2016.61007. http://www.scirp.org/Journal/PaperInformation.aspx?PaperID=63638
dengue_1.38a.tar (download version 1.38a here)
Features:
Fortran-90 code (open source)
Graphical output in gnuplot implemented (pictures formats in png and eps)
input data and model parameter name list in the directory ./input
status: numerically stable in linux Ubuntu with f90 gfortran
for more informations and brenchmark dataset (for standard test) you can email-to: hugo@igeo.ufrj.br
The model will be distributed as a copyleft free software, i.e., under the arrangement whereby the software may be used, modified, and distributed freely on condition that anything derived from it is bound by the same condition.