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Working papers and work in progress
NEW PAPER (in progress): Contractionary Fiscal Stimulus (and Expansionary Austerity), with Miguel Bandeira, Marco Bonomo, and Marcos Mendes Slides available here (draft coming soon)
NEW PAPER (in progress): Price Setting when Expectations are Unanchored, with Daniel Abib, João Ayres, Marco Bonomo, Stefano Eusepi, Silvia Matos, and Marina Perrupato Slides available here
NEW PAPER: Leavers and Stayers after Mass Layoffs: Labor and Credit Market Outcomes, with Natália Corado, Gustavo Gonzaga, and Bruno Perdigão (draft available upon request)
Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Monetary Policy, with Eric Hsu and Fernanda Nechio (working paper version: FRBSF Working Paper #2016-06) Reject-revise at the AEJ: Macroeconomics
Transitions in Central Bank Leadership, with Tiago Flórido (in memoriam) and Eduardo Zilberman (R&R at the Journal of Monetary Economics, never resubmitted)
Beating the Pros with a Semi-structural Model of Their Own Inflation Forecasts, with Sérgio Alves and Waldyr Areosa (draft available upon request)
Gambling, Risk Appetite, and Asset Pricing, with Daniel Cordeiro, Ruy Ribeiro, and Eduardo Zilberman
What Explains Japan's Persistent Deflation?, with Andrea Ferrero
Price Setting in a Variable Macroeconomic Environment: Evidence from Brazilian CPI, with João Ayres, Rebecca Barros, Marco Bonomo, and Silvia Matos
The Perils of Counterfactual Analysis with Integrated Processes, with Ricardo Masini and Marcelo Medeiros
Extensive Margin Adjustment of Multi-Product Firm and Stock Returns, with Gee Hee Hong and Jing Zhou
Publications (includes forthcoming and accepted papers; see below for Brazilian journals)
NEW PUB: Demographics and Real Interest Rates Across Countries and Over Time, Journal of International Economics 157, September 2025
with Andrea Ferrero, Felipe Mazin, and Fernanda Nechio. Slides
NEW PUB: Abrupt Monetary Policy Change and Unanchoring of Inflation Expectations, Journal of Monetary Economics 145 S, July 2024
with Marco Bonomo, Stefano Eusepi, Marina Perrupato, Daniel Abib, João Ayres, and Silvia Matos. Online Appendix, Slides
Weighted Median Inflation Around the World: A Measure of Core Inflation, Journal of International Money and Finance 142, April 2024
with Larry Ball, Chris Evans, and Luca Ricci. NBER WP 31032, CEPR DP 18011, IMF Working Paper No. 2023/044
Macroeconomic Effects of Credit Deepening in Latin America, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 55, October 2023
with Nilda Pasca, Laura Souza, and Eduardo Zilberman. Supplementary material
Challenges to Disinflation: The Brazilian Experience, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Spring 2023
with Fernanda Nechio. Slides
with Marco Bonomo, Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Sigal Ribon, and Rodolfo Rigato. Supplementary material
Persistent Monetary Non-neutrality in an Estimated Menu Cost Model with Partially Costly Information, American Econ. Journal: Macroeconomics 15, April 2023
with Marco Bonomo, René Garcia, Vivian Malta, and Rodolfo Rigato
with Stefano Eusepi, Emanuel Moench, and Bruce Preston. Supplementary material
with Fernanda Nechio and Tiago Tristão
with Oleksiy Kryvtsov. Supplementary material, Replication material
Sectoral Price Facts in a Sticky-Price Model, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 13, January 2021.
with Jae Won Lee and Woong Yong Park. Online Appendix
The Cross-Sectional Distribution of Price Stickiness Implied by Aggregate Data, Review of Economics and Statistics 102, March 2020
with Niels A. Dam and Jae Won Lee.
ArCo: An Artificial Counterfactual Approach for High-Dimensional Panel Time-Series Data, Journal of Econometrics 207, December 2018
with Ricardo Masini and Marcelo Medeiros. ArCo is available as an R package
with Fernanda Nechio FRBSF. Working Paper #2017-12
with Fernanda Nechio. Online Appendix.
Demographics and Real Interest Rates: Inspecting the Mechanism, European Economic Review 88, September 2016
with Andrea Ferrero and Fernanda Nechio.
Selection and Monetary Non-Neutrality in Time-Dependent Pricing Models, Journal of Monetary Economics 76, November 2015
with Felipe Schwartzman
with Fernanda Nechio
with Nicholas Klagge and Emanuel Moench
with Fernanda Nechio
Loss Aversion, Asymmetric Market Comovements, and the Home Bias, Journal of International Money and Finance 29, November 2010
with Kevin Amonlirdviman
Imperfectly Credible Disinflation under Endogenous Time-Dependent Pricing, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 42, August 2010
with Marco Bonomo
Heterogeneity in Price Stickiness and the Real Effects of Monetary Shocks, Frontiers in Macroeconomics 2 (1), December 2006
Endogenous Time-Dependent Rules and Inflation Inertia, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 36, December 2004
with Marco Bonomo.
Papers in Brazilian journals
What if Brazil Hadn't Floated the Real in 1999?, Brazilian Review of Econometrics 35, November 2015, Special Volume SAMBA
with André Vilela. Also in Portuguese: E Se o Brasil Não Tivesse Adotado Câmbio Flutuante em 1999?
Just Words? A Quantitative Analysis of the Communication of the Central Bank of Brazil, Revista Brasileira de Economia 67, December 2013
with Fernando Cordeiro and Juliana Vargas. Update
Firmas Heterogêneas, Sobreposição de Contratos e Desinflação, Pesquisa e Planejamento Econômico 25, December 1995
Book chapters
Crédito direcionado e seus efeitos sobre a transmissão da política monetária, in Mendes, M. (Org.): Para não esquecer: políticas públicas que empobrecem o Brasil, Editora Brava, 2022
with Marco Bonomo, Bruno Martins and Bruno Perdigão
Macroeconomic Effects of the Demographic Transition in Brazil, in Fanelli, J. M. (Org.): Asymmetric Demography and the Global Economy: Growth Opportunities and Macroeconomic Challenges in an Ageing World, Palgrave Macmillan, 2015. Policy brief
with Ricardo Brito
Que Regime Monetário-cambial?, in Giambiagi, F. and C. Porto (Orgs.): Propostas para o governo 2015-2018 - Agenda para um país prospero e competitivo, Elsevier, 2013
with Tiago Berriel and Rafael Ihara
Diversificação da Economia e Desindustrialização, in Bacha, E. and M. de Bole (Orgs.): O futuro da indústria no Brasil - Desindustrialização em debate, Civilização Brasileira, 2013
with Tiago Berriel and Marco Bonomo
Legacy/retired papers
Heterogeneous Price-Setting Behavior and Aggregate Dynamics: Some General Results, March 2008 (never submitted; partially incorporated into "Selection and Monetary Non-Neutrality in Time-Dependent Pricing Models")
with Felipe Schwartzman
Time- and State-Dependent Pricing: A Unified Framework, September 2011 (earlier version: State-Dependent Pricing under Infrequent Information: A Unified Framework, FRBNY Staff Reports #455)
with Marco Bonomo and René Garcia
Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Sticky-Price Models with Capital, July 2012 (partially incorporated into "Factor Specificity and Real Rigidities" and "Monetary Policy and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Sticky-Price Models")
with Fernanda Nechio
Monetary Policy and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Sticky-Price Models, September 2018 (also FRBSF Working Paper #2014-17)
with Fernanda Nechio and Fang Yao
Other writings (blogs, short articles, and Op-Eds)
Duas lições do Reuno Unido, Jornal Valor Econômico, November 28, 2022
with Eduardo Zilberman
Influências externas à política monetária, Jornal Valor Econômico, August 4, 2021
with Eduardo Zilberman
Demographic Transition and Low U.S. Interest Rates, Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, September 2017
with Andrea Ferrero and Fernanda Nechio
Fed Communication and the Zero Lower Bound, Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, July 2016
with Eric Hsu and Fernanda Nechio
O que esperar do pacote de crédito do governo, Jornal Valor Econômico, February 19, 2016
with Eduardo Zilberman
Household Expectations and Monetary Policy?, Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, June 2014
with Fernanda Nechio
with Fernanda Nechio
with Tiago Berriel and Rafael Ihara
Policy Initiatives in the Global Recession: What Did Forecasters Expect?, Current Issues in Economics and Finance 18 (2), February 2012
with Stefano Eusepi and Christian Grisse
Transferindo Reputação, Jornal Valor Econômico, October 6, 2011
Did Unconventional Policy Responses to the Crisis Work? Evidence from a Cross-Country Analysis, FRBNY Liberty Street Economics blog
with Stefano Eusepi and Christian Grisse
How Well Do Financial Markets Separate News from Noise? Evidence from an Internet Blooper, FRBNY Liberty Street Economics blog
with Nicholas Klagge and Emanuel Moench
Crise, Economia e Popularidade, Jornal Valor Econômico, July 5, 2001
Discussions
"Beyond Costs: The Dominant Role of Strategic Complementarities in Pricing", by Elías Albagli, Francesco Grigoli, Emiliano Luttini, Dagoberto Quevedo, and Marco Rojas, II Annual Conference of the Banco Central do Brasil, 2025
"Inflation Expectations and the Supply Chain", by Elías Albagli, Francesco Grigoli, and Emiliano Luttini, I Annual Conference of the Banco Central do Brasil, 2024
"Exchange Rate and Inflation under Weak Monetary Policy: Turkey Verifies Theory", by R. Gürkaynak, B. Kısacıkoğlu, and S. Lee, Bank of Canada Conference on "The Return of High Inflation: Challenges for Monetary Policy", 2023
"Has Globalization Changed the Inflation Process", by K. J. Forbes, 17th BIS Annual Conference, 2018
"A Global Safe Asset for Emerging Market Economies", by M. Brunnermeier, L. Huang, and Y. Sannikov, Conference on "Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: Transmission Mechanisms and Policy Implications" (XXI Annual Conference of the Central Bank of Chile, 2017)
"Nominal Rigidities and the Microeconomic Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations", by E. Pasten, R. Schoenle, and M. Weber, Workshop on "The Macroeconomics of Granularity and Production Networks", Central Bank of Chile 2017
"The Effects of Fed Policy on EME Bond Markets", by J. Burger, F. Warnock, and V. Warnock, Conference on "Monetary Policy and Global Spillovers: Mechanisms, Effects and Policy Measures" (XX Annual Conference of the Central Bank of Chile, 2016)
"Federal Transfer Multipliers: Quasi-Experimental Evidence From Brazil", by R. Corbi, E. Papaioannou, and P. Surico, LuBraMacro 2015
"Structural Transformation, Education, and Fertility", by P. Ferreira, L. Pereira, and A. Monge-Naranjo, LuBraMacro 2014
"Volatility and Pass-through", by D. Berger and J. Vavra, Workshop on "The Micro and the Macro of Price Rigidities", Central Bank of Chile 2014
"Project Selection and Risk Taking under Credit Constraints", by F. Iachan, LuBraMacro 2013
"The Effects of Fund Flows on Corporate Investment: A Catering View", by N. Camanho, LuBraFin 2013
"Trend Inflation and the Unemployment Volatility Puzzle", by S. Alves, LuBraMacro 2012
"Inflation Dynamics and Time-Varying Uncertainty: New Evidence and an Ss Interpretation", by J. Vavra, Workshop on the "Macroeconomics of Risk and Uncertainty", Central Bank of Chile 2012
"From Many Series, One Cycle: Improved Estimates of the Business Cycle from a Multivariate Unobserved Components Model", by C. Fleischman and J. Roberts, Conference on "Structural and Cyclical Elements in Macroeconomics", Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 2012
"Price Setting with Menu Cost for Multi-Product Firms", by F. Alvarez and F. Lippi, NBER - ME Meeting 2012
"Linkages Between Exchange Rate Policy and Macroeconomic Performance", by V. Sokolov, B. Lee, and N. Mark, AEA Meetings 2009
"Reset Price Inflation and the Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks", by M. Bils, P. Klenow, and B. Malin, Federal Reserve Macro System Meetings 2008
Papers in FGV-IBRE Sponsored Session "Price Micro Data in Macroeconomics": "Understanding Movements in Aggregate and Product-Level Real-Exchange Rates", by A. Burstein and N. Jaimovich, "State-Dependent or Time-Dependent Pricing: Does it Matter for Recent U.S. Inflation", by P. Klenow and O. Kryvtsov, and "The Evolution of Price Setting in a Variable Macroeconomic Environment: Evidence from Brazilian CPI", by R. Barros, M. Bonomo, and S. Matos, LACEA Meetings 2008
"Robust Monetary Policy in a Forward-Looking Model with Wealth Effects", by E. Araújo, XXVII Encontro Brasileiro de Econometria 2005