singing saps

the only show of unity from the nation’s reconvening lawmakers on sept. 1 came during the singing of the national anthem. after that, the new session of parliament quickly degenerated into its customary state of division and disunity.

the verkhovna rada shows no signs of emerging from its do-nothing posture until well after the jan. 17 presidential election, prompting president victor yushchenko to call once again for the 450-member body to be dissolved and for early elections to take place. lawmakers reconvened on sept. 3 and will try to do so again on sept. 8.

parliament speaker volodymr lytvyn at least paid lip service to the notion of a productive legislative body. he asked his colleagues to set aside political and business rivalries and seek compromise.

fat chance. lytvyn’s request was promptly ignored by leaders of the regions party, the largest faction, whose members once again blocked the rostrum, forcing lytvyn to close the session early.

“politics in the national legislature has for a long time been formed outside the walls of parliament,” yushchenko said on sept. 2. “these are the intrigues of two political forces. in essence, they are intrigues of two people.”

the president, of course, was referring to prime minister yulia tymoshenko and ex-prime minister victor yanukovych – both rivals of yushchenko in the upcoming presidential election of jan. 17.

tymoshenko and yanukovych, after flirting briefly with an ill-fated political union, are back to sparring and maneuvering. for months, they have been at loggerheads over amending the 2009 budget to increase the minimum salary and pension levels.

the danger exists, however, that the political deadlock will end up costing the nation billions of dollars in western financial assistance.

the sept. 1 session coincided with a visit of a special mission by the international monetary fund, which has already lent ukraine more than $10 billion of a $16.4 billion standby loan agreement. it was the first mission since lawmakers interrupted their summer vacations on aug. 21 to overturn two presidential vetoes.

the government has, so far, not lived up to some of the conditions for the loans, designed to cushion ukraine’s economic recession. for example, the government did not hike natural gas prices to households by the recommended 20 percent starting on sept. 1, a move designed to improve the fiscal solvency of naftogaz.

meanwhile, the state-owned naftogaz – a key conduit of russian natural gas supplies to europe – announced on sept. 2 that it plans to restructure $1.6 billion in debt, including a $500 million eurobond that comes due at the end of the month.

lytvyn said the situation in parliament reflects what is transpiring throughout the country.

“the country, like the verkhovna rada, is constantly on the verge of breaking up. the country, like the verkhovna rada, is running on autopilot. the country, like the verkhovna rada, thrives on chaos,” lytvyn said.

he said failure to break the deadlock in parliament before presidential elections due in january 2010 would leave the country mired in unremitting political squabbling.

“people are surviving this difficult period in spite of us, not because of us,” he said. “we cannot continue this way. there is nowhere left to go.”

party of regions leader yanukovych made no apologies.

“the leaders of the country have turned ukraine into a pirate ship with hostages. the ship has no captain, steering wheel or sail,” yanukovych said. “the head of state has de facto declined to lead the country, preferring instead to make pronouncements at press conferences. the [parliamentary majority] coalition is a fiction, a phantom.”

ivan kyrylenko, leader of tymoshenko’s eponymous bloc, the second largest rada faction, said it would be foolhardy to increase social welfare payments – as yanukovych and the communist party want to do.

kyrylenko said the tymoshenko faction does not want to increase spending in ways that would lead to runaway inflation or the depreciation of the hryvnia.

neither the cabinet of ministers or the rada’s budget committee have supported party of regions plans to increase the minimum salary to 1,500 hyrvnia ($188) and the minimum pension to 1,300 ($162).

according to ukraine’s constitution, a simple majority, or 226 votes, is required to pass most legislation, with a two-thirds majority, or 300 votes, required to pass amendments to the constitution, overturn presidential vetoes and impeach the president.

while 234 lawmakers voted to adopt the rada’s agenda for the session, which includes some 1,500 legislative bills, only 200 supported yanukovych’s proposal. despite losing, regions party deputies blocked the rostrum after the vote, forcing lytvyn to close the session early.

kost bondarenko, the director of the kyiv-based horshenin institute of management problems, said that he expects parliament will accomplish little this session.

“i think deputies will fight for control of the rostrum to promote their leaders running for president,” bondarenko said. “i doubt deputies will agree on amending the current 2010 budget, or be able to draft a new budget for 2011.

anton sinko, a political analyst with the kyiv center for political research and conflict studies, did not rule out further political destabilization.

“the situation could get worse unless leaders from the yulia tymoshenko bloc and party of regions reach an accommodation,” sinko said.

“now that the party of regions has demonstrated its commitment to raising social standards, maybe leaders of the faction will step back and seek compromise,” sinko said.

oleksandr litvinenko, a political analyst for the razumkov center for political and economic studies, said there is not much room for give and take.

“i expect the legislature to work sporadically and theatrically for the next four months,” litvinenko said, predicting that post-presidential election haggling over the creation of a new coalition majority and cabinet of ministers would take an additional two or three months.