[excerpts] february 1, 1996
economic situation
in a recent speech lukashenko formulated the goal of his economic policy - market socialism. a definition eludes me.
he means to govern by authoritarian methods and intends to introduce market mechanisms by decree.
the belarusian economy, meanwhile, continues to collapse.
lukashenko’s refusal to support economic reforms has stimulated a steep drop in production that has spread to industries that were formerly profitable, e.g. light manufacturing and the production of food processing equipment, building materials, and agricultural equipment (tractors).
+ belarusian external debt is about 2 billion dollars but no one knows for sure since no reliable information exists.
+ the percentage of state issued long-term credits to basic industries has decreased significantly.
+ the government has clamped down on private commercial business.
+ western - not russian - investors account for less than one percent of the total volume of foreign investment.
+ the retreat from privatization has sapped the population’s interest in economic reform.
the dollar|zajchik exchange rate is artificially controlled by the rb central bank and has negatively affected the financial performance of belarusian exporters.
continuation of this policy will further hinder economic development.
social situation
the population truly supports lukashenko. he is close to his people, to their expectations and aspirations. he understands what the majority of people desires. he tells people what they want to hear.
intellectuals, on the other hand, do not share the same expectations and aspirations. but they are sick, too, ill with mental dystrophy. even more removed from the general population than the intelligentsiya in russia, they simply despise lukashenko and regard him as a symbol of national degradation.
not long ago, lukashenko declared, "it is impossible to say anything elegant in belarusian. …there are only two great languages in the world: english and russian."
during li peng’s visit to belarus in january, 1996, lukashenko praised him as a "great leader of the european mold, notwithstanding his asian origin."
for educated patriots and belarusian nationalists, each new lukashenkoism reinforces their alienation.
some observations:
belarusian society is not moving towards greater openness, rather it is becoming more closed.
value systems of the past are eroding. new ones are being established.
economic degradation will lead to the collapse of the national economy.
tension between several segments of the population is on the rise.
control over the society by authoritarian and totalitarian means will continue.
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march 14, 1996
as requested by the ruling magistrate of pervomajskij court, i met with the judge presiding over the libel case brought against me by mr. shkol’nikov and the party for democracy, social fairness, and justice.
during the preliminary inquiry, our lawyer presented materials published articles and declarations 1995 by mr. shkol’nikov’s party about the foundation. additionally, we gave the judge a recording of the karambol’ televison show (during which i allegedly slandered both the communist party and mr. shhkol’nikov).
both the television show and court action was initiated at the zametalin level with the intent of gaining political points/leverage from communist hardliners leading up to the russian presidential elections.
the belarus & russia unification agreement will be signed in march.
shkol’nikov and his party are organizing an action for 21 may in front of the court. because we met the judge today, i am not required to attend the joint preliminary hearing on the 21st so we will avoid the dog-and-pony show.
the case is another attempt to politicize the activities of the bsf. however, the presidential administration and other organs are taking other, more threatening steps:
public statements made by the president regarding continuing support for independent mass media -"independence is a philosophical concept. …the fourth estate is financed from abroad - by the soros foundation. …the fourth estate is the fourth estate. but i am the first estate, and they better remember it." (nezavisimaya gazeta, moscow, feb. 29).
presidential administration forced polling of state academic institutions and of scholars who have received bsf grants (isf, issep, next step, etc.) has been concluded. ministry officials and faculty are being summoned and quizzed regarding moneys received and projects carried out by organs of state security.
the recent interest displayed by the presidential office of economic crime regarding accounting for grant moneys applied for and/or disbursed by the foundation.
upcoming events:
14 march – official opening of the legal law library (president, prime minister, etc., ambassadors all invited).
15 march – presentation of the independent association of belarusian journalists & publishers on march 15 (constitution day).
24 march – demonstration organized by belarusian popular front in conjunction with independent and free trade unions.
we all share a clearly defined sense of the absurd and those potential, expected and/or real cataclysms in store will not lead to panic. we certainly don’t want anyone outside belarus at osi to panic, even though we understand that some of the information we communicate might be construed as bizarre (which, indeed, it is).
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may 8, 1996
political situation
i arrived back in sunny minsk yesterday evening. belarus is shutting down for the war victory holidays tomorrow a friday, so the office will be closed.
the political and economic situation here continues to get worse.
on saturday agrarians and communists joined with the president’s soglasie fraction in the supreme soviet and isolated the minority of 17-20 deputies of the democrat opposition led by bogdankevich, grazhdanskij soyuz. all candidates proposed by the presidential administration for affirmation went through saturday by majority vote (chairman, national bank, assistant attorney general, etc., ad nauseu).
president lukashenko was present during the confirmation hearings. in reaction to viktor gonchar’s blistering interrogation of general agolets, the administration’s candidate for the post of minister, internal affairs, lukashenko stated that gonchar and other deputies will not be in the position to ask any questions, that they will soon be put on the "witness stand" before the parliamentary majority. it is well know that the ministry of internal affairs has been preparing compromising materials on each of the 17-20 deputies in the opposition.
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june 7, 1996
political situation
on wednesday, semen sharetskij, chairman of the supreme soviet, delivered an uncharacteristically (for him) sensible speech. he said that the political and economic situation is growing worse every day. he invited the president to appear in parliament to report of the state of the nation. many deputies and "loyal" political pundits understood sharetskij’s address as the beginning of the impeachment process. this is unlikely to occur in the near future.
the president took an unscheduled vacation on may 26 to relax in sochi, ukraine. he left two days before a planned meeting with the security council. the press announced early last week that he was extending the vacation until june 12. apparently, he was very tired and maybe a little sick. rumors were circulated that he an epileptic seizure and was under the care of doctors. my guess is that he had an apoplectic fit.
chairman of the state press committee, mr. bel’skij, announced on friday that belorusskaya delovaya gazeta (bdg) has received five warnings from the state committee on press for publishing inaccurate, offensive information (a couple of great articles about the president’s security apparatus). consequently, the newspaper will not be re-registered. bdg is one of the leading independent bi-weekly newspapers in the republic.
economic situation
two decrees (no. 208 and 209) regulating commercial and banking activities were signed and went into effect last week. both increase the level of state regulation and control of all non-governmental commercial activities in the republic.
predictably, the dollar|zajchik rate shot up from 1|13000 to 1|15000. most banks closed all hard currency exchange operations; account holders, fearing a complete banking collapse, began withdrawing their bunny and dollar savings, further sapping the system of hard currency reserves. devaluation of the bunny is inevitable and will lead to high levels of inflation in the months ahead. by fall, prices may increase by 20-40 percent.
no one is getting paid. this is a problem, too.
other:
goncharik and the trade unions (teachers, factory workers, etc.) have once again decided to picket the parliament and the presidential administration building, whether or not the minsk city council grants official permission.
the belarusian popular front has been raided by special interior troops again. the ministry of justice has issued the bpf two warnings and has closed their bank account. the bpf plans two mass demonstrations in minsk on june 20 and june 22.
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june 24, 1996
political situation
deputy viktor gonchar, a member of the civil action party (grazhdanskij soyuz), was shot at by a police patrol attached to the president’s security apparatus at around 0300 on friday, june 13. fortunately, he was not hurt. his secretary took a round in the buttocks. official state commentary has it that the patrol mistook gonchar for a chechen bandit.
stanislav bogdankevich, former chairman of the rb national bank and the leader of the civil action party, was attacked on the front pages of all state-controlled newspapers and in electronic media for his involvement in alleged illegal banking activities.
three large muscled men beat galina drakhokhrust, wife of yurij drakhokhrust (the author of the article rebutting shchukin’s attack on george soros & the foundation), at her home on friday, june 21. they told her to pass on their regards to yurij, who was in poland during the assault.
president lukashenko gave a state of the union address on saturday. he stated publicly that he does not suffer from schizophrenia and is not sick. "if anyone doesn’t believe me, we can have it out man to man," he said.
lukashenko also stated that beginning july 1, 1996 controls would be tightened on all belarusian leaving the country and on the movements of all foreigners traveling within the republic. wonderful.
the cabinet of ministers has issued an edict on 17 june that obliges all non-governmental organizations and "foundations" to provide financial information and account balances from 1995 to present to the central tax inspectorate. the ministry of finance in cooperation with the central tax inspectorate was also tasked in the edict to formulate within a month a list of financial information to be reported to the tax inspectorate on a monthly basis.
events here are proceeding as expected. there is no reason for anyone to get worried about us because most of us are dynamic disequalibrium veterans.
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june 31, 1996
on 13 june miklhail khvostov, deputy foreign minister of rb, announced that representatives of the european parliament foreign relations commission had requested the leadership of the european union to suspend implementation of the temporary trade agreement between belarus and the european union because of human rights violations. khvostov also announced that for the same reason the council of europe had suspended its review of belarus’ application for membership into the european council.
on 13 june an article appeared in izvestiya entitled "lukashenko won’t give up russia’s ss-25’s" (p.2.litovkin). notwithstanding agreements concluded between kazakhstan, russia, ukraine, belarus, and the u.s, "experts" assert that the belarusian president is using strategic rocket forces still based in belarus as a hedge in the political "game" over the expansion with the nato. the article asserts that he is doing this despite the transfer agreement reached between grachev and mal’tsev (rb army chief of staff) earlier this year.
u.s. ambassador to rb, kenneth yalowitz, issued a press release stating that independent ("non-governmental") media is a vital element of democracy and that "we are following very closely the situation involving belorusskaya delovaya gazeta." on friday of last week, the presidential committee on press announced that their license had been revoked for revealing state secrets.
slavomir adamovich, who was arrested and jailed in early may for writing a poem entitled "kill the president", was transferred to the jail hospital today. he has been on a hunger strike for the past month.
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july 1, 1996
on friday the president issued a decree providing for the reorganization of the largest daily newspaper in the republic, narodnaya gazeta, formerly controlled by the rb supreme soviet.
according to the decree, the newspaper will be reorganized into a limited stock company, 70 percent shares of which will be owned by the presidential administration with the remainder belonging to narodnaya gazeta staff. in a second decree, the president named mr. shamanskij, former editor of belorusskaya niva, as editor of the daily.
this move illustrates the continuing policy of the presidential administration to control all state media. it is too early to predict the reaction of the supreme soviet, which recessed until july 11.
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july 19, 1996
11-17 july i visited grodno, mogilev, and vitebsk. also attended the opening and closing of "mogutnyj bozha" festival, a four-day international "spiritual" musical event in mogilev funded by bsf. the purpose of the trip was to jointly explore the mechanisms of decision-making based on principles.
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july 22, 1996
internal situation
the big news is the new offices, which should be habitable by the end of this month. everybody will be located on the first floor.
during the "diffusion" tour to grodno, mogilev, and vitebsk last week we spoke to members of the foundation and their respective social organizations about how the foundation works and about how we can work with them, through them, and around them. we’ll start widening the bsf’s funnel beginning in september.
our visit to mogilev coincided with the 4th annual magutnyj bozha festival. the advisory board awarded to the festival fund a grant for 7k earlier this year and the bsf was the sole sponsor of the event. unfortunately, the festival fund was co-opted by the mogilev city council, which is responsible for paving roads and patrolling sidewalks.
events scheduled for the four-day festival included choral music competitions as well as outdoor evening concerts by belarusian rock bands. at the last moment, fearing lyrics critical of the current regime, the city council, led by deputy mayor sumarov, voted to prohibit the rock bands from performing and turned off the electricity. this caused quite a stir. the local press and national non-governmental media, including radio liberty, picked up on the scandal. at the awards ceremony held at the palace of culture the city council made the big mistake of handing us the microphone.
external situation:
the democratic alliance has expanded to include social democrats and other formerly non-aligned politicians. the leadership of the civil action party (bogdankevich, karpenko, et al) is now publicly calling for the impeachment of the lukashenko, who, on the other hand, proposes a referendum extending his term in office and increasing his presidential powers. the media brainwashing campaign has begun anew. the belarusian economy is no longer heading for collapse. notwithstanding improved economic ties with france, the economy is in collapse.
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july 30, 1996
about 15,000 people attended the independence day rally. the police and interior ministry troops behaved themselves and there were no incidents.
lukashenko will employ a new tactic for dealing with pickets, marches, demonstrations, and strikes.
he will ban them by decree.
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august 18, 1996
political situation
last month during a press conference marking two years in office, president lukashenko said,
"i am forced to decide many issues using the strength of my authority and feeling the support of the people. therefore, to avoid people calling me a dictator, we must change the law in a civilized manner and, if necessary, hold a referendum. there is nothing wrong if the people to vote on four or five questions every two years, because a referendum is the highest form of democracy." he added, …"...and how can it be that someone who comes to power democratically can be a dictator? it is impossible."
lukashenko may or may not be familiar with the way hitler consolidated power using national plebiscites in 1933, 1934, and 1935.
the president reaffirmed his decision to hold a referendum on november 7, the anniversary of the bolshevik revolution, during two and a half hour nationally televised address broadcast from grodno, where he categorically cancelled parliamentary elections scheduled for 29 november.
he also announced his decision to "hold a national congress in minsk on september 14 for representatives of worker collectives, regions, and social groups of every sort."
it is not yet clear how the supreme soviet will react to these and imminent populist initiatives.
according to the rb constitution, a copy of which (in five languages) president lukashenko presented to gs in january 1995, the president may initiate a national referendum. however, the date of the referendum and the formulation of the questions are decided by the supreme soviet. but is unlikely that these technicalities will get in the way, since a majority of deputies will not endorse the referendum.
it will be held by presidential decree and legal requirements will also not apply tot he interpretation of referendum results.
according to the present rb constitution, over seventy five percent of the eligible electorate must vote if the results can be considered valid. considering the increased level of antipathy toward the president, the social strife expected on minsk streets this fall, and the reluctance of anyone younger than thirty-five to have anything to do with presidential initiatives, it is unlikely that the seventy five percent plank will be reached.
deputies of the rb supreme soviet may not start the impeachment process when the parliamentary session resumes on september 3. although most deputies agree that president lukashenko has repeatedly violated the constitution, the prevailing view seems to be that if they initiate this battle, the president will win the war.
whether political stability will be achieved by means of a passive parliament, or if open confrontation on principle is preferable, is still an open question. even if some compromise is reached between the executive and the legislative branches, it is extremely unlikely that the president will change leadership methods and become more "democratic" in the near future. so, parliamentary refusal to discuss or debate the impeachment can mean only one of two things: either deputies are afraid of losing their seats, or they are consciously playing on the president’s team and doing whatever it takes to squash potential dangerous waves of discontent.
a mass media campaign of orwellian proportions started about a week and a half-ago in national and regional state press, radio, and television. excerpts from presidential speeches, specially prepared articles castigating deputies in the supreme soviet, cia infiltration schemes, etc., ad nausea are run daily, sometimes hourly.
the zombification of the masses that occurred on the eve of last year’s referendum (on the proper vote to cast on national symbols, russian language, integration with russia, and parliament disbursement) is in full swing and probably will be successful in some regional centers and villages.
as regards independent media, tax authorities have initiated simultaneous "routine" checks of the more influential newspapers, belorusskaya gazeta and belorusskaya delovaya gazeta. of some concern to bsf was the unannounced appearance of bel'skij, chairman of the state committee on press, and podgajnyj, who replaced colonel zametalin as the head of the socio-political information department (mspdid) on thursday last week.
recent developments include the publication izvestiya last week commenting on belarus’ foreign affairs referendum propaganda plan. the plan, which is rumored to be the work of antonovich, rb vice minister of foreign affairs, calls for the supreme soviet to be firmly defined as an "outdated socialist brand of power, which is not capable of writing legislation in reform conditions."
the appearance of this document in its entirety in byelorussiya newspaper on friday has caused quite a stir in the upper echelons of the presidential administration. ural latypov, presidential foreign affairs advisor, has been mistakenly fingered as the source. according to the izvestiya article, some changes in the program have been made. however, in the general, the plan is being implemented as elaborated.
the parliament will be discredited.
the constitution must to be amended (so economic reforms can go forward), etc.
the president has also become very active in his grandstanding before the masses.
economic situation
nothing has changed. we are still in a state of collapse. the harvest campaign continues unabated. everybody to the fields! factory workers come back to the cities with their tanned kids in late august and early september. many of them have not been paid. many of them will not be paid.
social situation
the atmosphere is fairly calm. police and interior ministry troops now regularly patrol prospekt masherova, the drag. with the exception of september 8, the anniversary of the belarusian victory over the russians in orsha, no meetings are planned. by the 8th, though, the president has promised to issue a decree banning all public demonstration pickets, meetings, etc.
internal situation
the foundation resumes normal operations on 22 august. there may be some glitches because all the coordinators and the administration staff’s documents are bound up in boxes. it will probably take a couple of days to resume normal operations.
official mischief
only a couple and relatively mild. one was an article appearing 13 august on the first page of znamya yunosti (a presidential newspaper) entitled "they wrecked kenneth yalowitz’s mood." accompanying the article is a lovely photograph of two wizened communists holding up a placard reading "soros said that slovakia was a fascist state – and meciar showed him the door." a couple of paragraphs are devoted to gs and the bsf.
"…demonstrators even came out against george soros, although it is not necessary to tie him in with such activities (cia infiltration of belarus). many countries have already accused him of meddling in their internal affairs and, unlike here in belarus, have shown him the door officially."
conclusion:
everything considered no insurmountable problems. and this is why i have decided to take a small excursion to grodno next week to check up on our diffusion project.
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august 23, 1996
unofficial media
the rb tax inspectorate acting on instructions of colonel vladimir zametalin, deputy prime minister has initiated simultaneous "random" inspections of the largest and most influential non-governmental tabloids, including belorusskaya gazeta, belorusskaya delovaya gazeta, imya, narodnaya volya, and svaboda.
fines will be imposed. over the past year the bsf has indirectly supported these and other state/non-governmental newspapers administratively through advertising fees paid for running foundation competition announcements and results. the fines are not connected with bsf fees.
harassment by municipal and oblast' councils of regional non-governmental newspapers, practically all of which have received grants from the bsf (pagonya – grodno, vitebskij kur’er – vitebsk, brestkij kur’er – brest), has also intensified. for example, the editor in chief of pagonya was recently informed that the newspaper must vacate its offices to make room for "vertical" administrative structures. the state committee for press has increased print runs and distribution of official state controlled press to oblast' centers.
these and other measures are perfectly in line with the national referendum campaign aimed at ensuring a positive outcome to the national referendum scheduled for november 7 of this year.
the national referendum campaign:
colonels’ posokhov and zametalin oversee domestic strategy and tactics for the referendum campaign. the ingredients are as follows:
repressing minsk and regional non-governmental media
organizing worker collectives of large state enterprises in support of presidential referendum initiatives
establishing information and lecture groups at state enterprises and regional centers to promote presidential referendum initiatives
increasing material assistance to targeted social groups, i.e. veterans, pensioners, invalids, and families with lots of kids
organizing "vertical" oblast', regional, and municipal committees for conducting the referendum (and counting the votes)
and
inviting 6,000 supporters of the presidential referendum initiatives to participate in a national congress scheduled (by decree) for september 14 in minsk at the palace of sport.
opposition:
on august 21, the leaders of the seven leading political parties met with trade union leaders and issued a joint declaration calling for, among other things, strict compliance to existing legislation and decisions taken by the rb constitutional court, and the observance of human rights and freedoms of belarusian citizens.
stanislav bogdankevich, leader of the civil action party though the declaration was too diplomatic. he said, "they will disband the parliament whatever we do, so we should take a concrete stand and a dignified position."
vasilij novikov, representing the communist party, said to a belapan reporter, "this is a classic moment, one when any prognosis is superfluous. but knowing lukashenko, anything is possible. considering that the constitutional court ruled that sixteen of his decrees violate the constitution, i rule out nothing."
leonid borschchevskij, the new leader of the belarusian popular front, commented, "only the supreme soviet is capable of legally extricating the republic from the current crisis. and the only way to do it is by impeaching the president."
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august 31, 1996
shutdown of radio station 101,2:
on friday, august 320, at 1730 the deputy minister of communications informed by facsimile the offices of radio station 101,2 that programming would not be aired after saturday, august 31, at 24:00 because of "technical reasons."
radio 101,2 is the only non-governmental radio station broadcasting in belarusian to minsk and environs. it is the only station that broadcast objective news information, including bbc and polish radio news, in rb.
the station was born out of a 100k grant awarded by the bsf in 1994. after protracted bureaucratic head butting with state and municipal authorities, 101,2 was finally licensed and began operating in the summer of 1995. since that time the station has developed the second largest listening audience in minsk and is especially popular among young people, who, as of today re being rounded up and sent to the country to pick potatoes.
we interpret the shutdown of 101,2 as a continuation of the state crackdown on non-governmental media. the organized campaign to impede or control all non-governmental media has been underway for the past two years. the recent escalation can be attributed to the upcoming national referendum.
over the month of august the following measures have been taken by state official:
imposition of local "vertical" control of information news programming (independent television broadcasters network –12 stations located in oblast' centers throughout the republic);
simultaneous "random" tax investigations of all non-governmental newspapers in the capitol and in the regions—inspectors say that they have be instructed "from above" to find something, anything (belorusskaya gazeta, belorusskij rynok, svaboda, pagonya, imya, belorusskaya delovaya gazeta); and now
the closure of 101,2 for "technical reasons."
i expect the situation to become more complicated in all respects as state officials take further steps to paralyze all movements, organizations, etc. that are considered "oppositional."
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september 9, 1996
political situation
on friday, september 6, 1996 the rb parliament voted to hold the referendum initiated by president lukashenko on november 24 in conjunction with parliamentary elections. deputies included three additional questions:
1. are you in favor of one national budget?
2. do you support local elections of local representatives?
3. do you support the constitution proposed by the agrarian and communist parties? (according to this draft constitution, there is no president at all).
the reaction of the presidential administration was predictable and swift. colonel zametalin, ideology chief of the presidential administration, appeared on national television declaiming the actions of the parliament. he said the parliament had committed a constitutional coup de tat. in television broadcasts aired saturday and sunday, malumov, the sole pro-lukashenko member of the presidium of the supreme soviet, said that the decision of the parliament was unconstitutional. "lukashenko is now free to act as he wishes," he said.
according to radio liberty and interfax, president lukashenko announced on sunday that, parliament notwithstanding the national referendum would be held on november 7. if this information is correct, the political situation will probably evolve as follows:
1. presidenial decree is issued for holding his version of national referendum.
2. parliament initiates impeachment.
3. president dissolves parliament.
4. anybody’s guess.
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september 11, 1996
the referendum
president lukashenko confirmed for the third time his intention to hold the referendum on november 7, 1996. at the end of his speech to members of the "vertical" lukashenko stated, "if we don’t win the referendum our country will cease to exist."
other developments
the bank account of magic was frozen. they recently printed 500,000 copies of narodnaya volya, which were distributed nationally by communists (supporting novikov and the rb supreme court presidium). the leading article of the issue was written by semen sharetskij, speaker of the parliament, and is entitled, "people, beware! the smell of fascism is in the air!"
the anti-dictatorship council was formed and gave a press conference yesterday. the director of the council is zakharenko, former chief of internal affairs. members include novikov, karpenko, bogdankevich, and kalyakin. the council is planning a mass rally (over 100,000 people) for the 26 october to protest dictatorship in belarus. during the conference karpenko said that the council is in possession of information detailing economic crimes committed by the presidential administration. karpenko left for moscow this morning.
foundation coordinators have been visited by kgb agents and questioned at length about foundation programs (education and education center programs). they were very impressed! also, a lovely article appeared in moskovskie novosti about our media center. we are tracking it down. so far, it looks like another sovetskaya belorussiya initiative.
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september 26, 1996
gossip slides and rumour mills
zakharenko, former minister of internal affairs, and executive director of the anti-fascism committee, announced at a press conference yesterday that an organizing committee has been formed to prepare an alternative rally to the all-union people’s conference on 19 october. he guestimates that over 100,000 people with show up. other committee members include bukhvost’ev (trade unions leader and ss deputy), karpenko (ss deputy and presidium member), tarasevich (former ambassador to poland), borshchevskij (national front leader).
as regards the illegitimate presidential referendum, it is now highly probable that it will be held in november. trolley buses have recently been painted and banners have been hung advertising the even, as well as on state television, radio, and in the press. this means that lukashenko is playing for all the marbles and, unless something changes, confrontation is inevitable.
we are trying not to cry wolf.
however, taking into consideration the likely turns of events, the desire to howl a little is irrepressible. there have been and will be attempts to disrupt foundation activities and to possibly close us down. we have discussed this issue with our lawyer and financial director and we are ready should such developments occur.
as regards hindering the president, it is the bsf policy and, over the course of 1996, a priority, to support non-governmental media that provide objective information. the foundation believes that freedom of speech and human rights are fundamental to the creation of civil society in belarus.
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october 7, 1996
external situation
on october 18th, the democratic pro-existing-constitution congress will be held in the trade union palace. karpenko, zakharenko, bykov, bukhvost’ev, etc. are the organizers and there will be many foreign guest from poland, latvia, lithuania, and russia.
on october 19th the all-union people’s congress will convene at the sports palace to discuss the president’s proposed constitution. assuming that no dissidents will be invited, it is widely expected that the congress will concur with the president’s recommendation to hold the illegitimate national plebiscite in november. whether or not they will propose the dissolution of the parliament is an open question.
at 1100 that day a pro-existing-constitution meeting is planned. attendees will gather at yanki kupala square opposite the circus and, if there are not too many apcs, the demonstrators will wind their way to the sports palace to say hello to lukashenko’s supporters.
analysis
it is too early to tell what exactly will happen in belarus. however, one this is certain: the situation will continue to be very messy for the foreseeable future.
if lukashenko’s people’s congress incorporates itself as the legal representative of the narod, that is, turns itself into an uchreditel’noe sobranie, many outcomes are possible. most are unconstitutional, and two are more probable.
the people’s congress and counter-congress meeting on the 19th may result in chaos leading to physical conflict and mass arrests (that the authorities will commit acts of provocation is certain). if this will occur, the president may simply declare a state of emergency and dissolve parliament.
if events are peaceful and orderly, the president, at the behest of the congress, may decree november 7 as the date for holding his referendum and will simply ignore the parliament deputies who may, or may not, initiate an impeachment process.
yeltsin’s administration made it crystal clear last week that the russian government supports a peaceful co-operative outcome to the dispute between the executive and legislature. the russian president’s letter spelled this out to lukashenko last week.
however, pan-slavic, ultra-nationalist, and hyper-integrationistic russian politicians (baburin, zhirinovskij, lebed’, korzhakov), not to mention the gasprom lobby (serov, chernomyrdin, vyakhirev) publicly support lukashenko’s bid to legitimize his dictatorship.
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october 8, 1996
at the moment the republic is in a deep social, economic and political crisis which would make it quite possible to implement a replacement model. the scenarios for the possible development of events within the next two months are as follows:
scenario 1
the so-called "people’s congress" will be held on october 19 in order to support lukashenko’s referendum initiative. the "people’s congress" will claim to be a constituent assembly and put forward a temporary representative and consultative body from among its participants, which will carry out the functions of parliament until the elections for the national assembly. an alternative congress in defense of the constitution will be unable to organize mass protest actions (these will only involve 10,000-15,000 minsk residents), and parliament will not be able to start an impeachment procedure due to splits between its members. the authorities will simply block the current parliament sessions, and after a successful (falsified) referendum in favor of the president, the supreme soviet will be disbanded. as a result, lukashenko’s regime will get a temporary respite until the next political crisis, which is likely to come to a head in six months time.
scenario 2
the national congress will gather to defend the constitution on october 18. the government will try to call this off, stop the deputies, and block the delegate’s way into the trade union palace. a few days before, parliament deputies will gather in the supreme soviet building and stay there. an impeachment procedure will begin in response to the president’s illegal actions. on october 19, massive demonstrations by the united opposition will take place all over the country. workers from numerous major enterprises and students will declare an unconditional strike. clashes between those involved in the mass opposition protest actions (over 100,000 people) and the security forces ordered to guard the so-called "people’s congress" will occur near the palace of sports in minsk. following these events, there will be even more people involved in anti-dictatorial actions. they will form a human chain around the supreme soviet building and guard the deputies for several days. on november 7, the presidential team will try unsuccessfully to hold the referendum. public announcements will be made about the mass violations committed during the voting. a new flare-up on the streets and refusals by the military to quash the demonstrators will force the president to fly out of belarus towards an unknown destination.
scenario 3
the national congress in defense of the constitution will begin on october 18, and the pro-presidential "people’s congress" on the 19th. mass protest actions will take place in minsk (involving up to 50,000 people). the authorities will provoke clashes between demonstrators and law enforcement bodies. the people’s congress will sanction the holding of the presidential referendum on november 7, and elect a temporary representative body under presidential control. once the law enforcement bodies have dispersed the national congress, arrested the organizers of the anti-presidential demonstrations, and taken numerous supreme soviet deputies into custody, the belarusian parliament will begin an impeachment procedure.
on the same day, the president will issue a decree to dissolve the supreme soviet. following clashes with a small group of people defending parliament, riot police will storm the supreme soviet building, beat up the deputies there and take them away to an unknown location. the events in belarus will attract serious attention from the western media. governments in many countries, including russia, will dispatch notes of protest to the belarusian government. nevertheless, during a period of mass repression of the opposition (perhaps under a state of emergency), the government will hold the referendum in november. the results and future events will depend on the opposition’s ability to regroup and organize mass protest actions and on reactions from the international community, particularly from russia.