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The first image [above] shows the distribution of COVID-19 cases in two scenarios: the larger curve represents rapidly increasing COVID-19 cases, and the smaller curve represents gradually increasing COVID-19 cases.
The larger curve surpasses the extent of the healthcare system. This is problematic, due to the inevitable shortages of essential equipment that will result from rapidly increasing COVID-19 cases.
Ultimately, the first image demonstrates the primary goal of contact tracing, social distancing, and other protective measures used to slow the spread of COVID-19. Protective measures are necessary to ensure that the healthcare system is not overwhelmed in a national crisis.
Part of the motivation for this project is to demonstrate how different levels of contact tracing affect the spread of COVID-19, with high levels of contact tracing likely optimal to reduce the strain on the healthcare system.
By "trajectory of infections", we are referring to the exponential curve of infected people, respectfully, and whether or not rapid testing can flatten this curve so that it sits within the limitations of the United States healthcare system.
The last three images [above] show the branching process for the spread of COVID-19. The first image shows the contact network for a branching process for the spread of COVID-19. With high contagion probability, the infection spreads widely, whereas low contagion probability results in the infection dying out quickly. We want to lower the probability of contagion, through increased contact tracing.
Can Increased Contact Tracing have a Positive Impact on the U.S. Healthcare System?
The coronavirus (COVID-19) has proven to have immensely negative effects on the U.S. healthcare system. As the threat of the virus increases, medical personnel across the nation are faced with the challenge of treating a growing number of patients, while attempting to keep themselves safe from the disease. Hospitals are overwhelmed, personal protective equipment (PPE) is scarce, and essential medical equipment (ventilators, hospital beds, etc.) are in critical shortage.
We hypothesize that contact tracing is a crucial tactic combatting the threat of a failing, overwhelmed and exhausted healthcare system by supporting patients with a suspected or confirmed infection to prevent further contact and infection of other individuals. Our project's model intends to analyze just how impactful contact tracing really is in order to educate and inform. We convey our results through mathematical and economical models, with discussion of the economic theory associated with the crisis to supplement our findings.
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