Publications in English

The reason for writing this article was the release of the first Russian language textbook on sustainable finance. Its critical analysis, presented in the article, is aimed at creating more comprehensive textbooks on sustainable finance in the future. In addition, in recent years, the author has been actively involved in reviewing university curricula in the field of finance, the results of which can be used to draw an extremely disappointing conclusion about the significant lag in teaching finance in Russia compared to the best world examples. Against the background of the emergence of a new paradigm of finance in connection with the creation and strengthening of the sustainable development model, Russian teachers are guided not just by the old traditional paradigm of finance, but by its version from about 20 years ago. The article contains proposals for the formation of a program of courses on sustainable finance, as well as for taking this concept into account in traditional university courses on finance and individual industry financial disciplines. The author’s view on the selection of literature for courses on sustainable finance is also offered.

The article is devoted to the issues of mutual influence of financial inclusion and financial stability. The problem of finding the optimal combination of financial inclusion and financial stability policies is very relevant for Russia, given the significant influx of private investors into the securities market, which the regulator is trying to limit with high entry barriers for these investors. Based on the conclusion about the duality of the mutual influence of inclusion and stability existing in the literature, the authors developed a theoretical model of the influence of the level of inclusion on the risks affecting stability, showing that there is such a share of private investors in the volume of trading in the securities market, at which the risks of illiquidity and a decrease in profitability are minimal in their combination. Based on this model, recommendations for improving the regulation of the Russian securities market have been formulated.

The note (memo) analyzes the reasons for the sharp increase in the activity of the most qualified experts and officials of the economic block of Russia during May-July 2025 and a noticeable change in their positions on the most important issues of budget policy. The author suggests that the reason for this phenomenon, unusual for the Russian political landscape, was the growing crisis phenomena in the economy, which are especially acute in the budget sphere.

The article discusses changes in the basic market economy paradigm related to the role of profit in the expansion and competitive selection of enterprises. The “ESG revolution” affects the behavior of enterprises that allocate available financial resources to produce both private and public goods. Ceteris paribus, an increase of spending in the latter direction reduces the firm’s potential for short-term expansion and, accordingly, the long-term competitive advantage. Due to the effects of information asymmetry and other market failures, this loss can be only partially compensated by using preferential terms of the responsible financing instruments available mainly for the financialized enterprises. To produce such a reimbursement, an idea of integrated profit tax deductions for sustainable development projects is put forward. This approach could play a catalytic role in spreading responsible behavior practices and optimizing the regulatory burden in the field of ESG, and reduce the distortions of the key reproduction role of profits in general.

Yuri Danilov explains what factors have allowed the Russian economy to stay afloat and suggests that, despite the multitude of these factors, the likelihood of a crisis is rising.

This article deals with the formation of coalitions for sustainable development and sustainable finance in developed countries and in Russia. In developed countries, broad national coalitions for sustainable development have been formed based on the initially established industry coalitions of investors and financial institutions for sustainable finance. The ideological core of such coalitions is the idea of new models of capitalism based on the principles of sustainable development as an ideal social structure. The concepts of stakeholder capitalism and the impact or caring economy are examples of such models. In Russia, similar coalitions are much narrower because of the imitation of following the environmental, social, and governance (ESG) principles and mass greenwashing. At the same time, there are objective factors that can lead to the expansion of ESG coalitions and strengthening incentives for the implementation of a sustainable development model in Russia.

ABSTRACT

Assumptions about the impending new global crisis, which are increasingly found in expert discussions, have intensified the search for reliable crisis predictors, despite the existing theoretical consensus on the fundamental impossibility of forecasting crises. The purpose of the article is to describe the most popular “new” crisis predictors and evaluate their predictive properties. The primary research method was monitoring the confirmation of signals supplied by predictors, indicators of macroeconomic dynamics based on retrospective data. As a result of the study, we clarified the classification of types of financial crises to determine the predictors that best predict certain types of financial crises, which in current conditions are very likely to be the starting stage of a new kind of financial and economic crisis. We analysed financial condition indices (FCI); VIX (“fear index”); yield spreads between US treasury bonds of different maturities; investor sentiment indices and risk premium indicators; CAPE (Schiller coefficient). We analysed the signals from the “new” crisis predictors about the possible onset of the crisis. The authors concluded that various predictors show good results concerning crises of a particular type (the starting point of which were different segments of the financial sector). The analysis of the predictor time of various predictors made it possible to build them in a certain sequence depending on the time interval between the predictor signal and the onset of the crisis. Based on combining the linking of predictors with the types of crises that they predict better, with a sequence of predictors arranged according to the time of the predictions, we proposed a flow chart for monitoring external crisis predictors.

Keywords: financial and economic crisis; classification of financial crises; foresight; crisis predictors; financial markets; financial conditions index; VIX; yield spreads; risk premiums; Schiller coefficient; prediction time.