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Probabilistic Forecasting: Statistical Model
Probabilistic Forecasting: Statistical Model
Bayesian Ensembles of Exponentially Smoothed Life-Cycle Forecasts. (With Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr and Yael Grushka-Cockayne).
Manufacturing & Service Operations Management (2025). 27 (1), 230-248
Winner, 2019 INFORMS Decision Analysis Society Best Student Paper Award.
Finalist, 2020 POMS-JD.com Best Data-Driven Research Paper Competition.
Practice-based Research
Practice-based Research
Forecasting Airport Transfer Passenger Flow Using Real-Time Data and Machine Learning. (With Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Bert De Reyck).
Manufacturing & Service Operations Management (2022). 24 (6), 3193-3214
Winner, 2022 INFORMS Aviation Applications Best Paper Award.
Finalist, 2018 M&SOM Practiced-Based Competition.
London Heathrow Airport Uses Real-Time Analytics for Improving Operations. (With Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Bert De Reyck).
INFORMS Journal on Applied Analytics (formerly Interfaces). 50 (5), 325-339
Finalist, 2019 Daniel H. Wagner Prize for Excellence in Operations Research Practice.
Optimizing Human-AI Collaboration: Expert Interpretation of AI Results and Approaches for Accuracy and Efficiency (With Jiaxuan Sun and Tunay Tunca)
Created by ChatGPT. Admittedly, the chart is a bit cluttered. We will create our own version when we have time. :)
Combining Predictions
Combining Predictions
Bayesian Ensembles of Unlabeled Forecasts. (With Kenneth C. Lichtendahl and Eric Tassone).
Weighted Average Ensemble with Regularization (With Han Su and Xiaoke Zhang)
Probabilistic Forecasting: Machine Learning
Probabilistic Forecasting: Machine Learning
Forecasting Project Delays with Contextual Task Information and Machine Learning. (With Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Bert De Reyck).
Quantile Regression with a Strictly Convex Objective. (With Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr).
Publications
Publications
Guo, X., Lichtendahl Jr., KC. and Grushka-Cockayne, Y. 2025. Bayesian Ensembles of Exponentially Smoothed Life-Cycle Forecasts. Manufacturing & Service Operations Management. Forthcoming.
- Winner in 2019 INFORMS Decision Analysis Society Best Student Paper Award.
- Finalist in 2020 POMS-JD.com Best Data-Driven Research Paper Competition.
Guo, X., Grushka-Cockayne, Y. and De Reyck, B. 2022. Forecasting Airport Transfer Passenger Flow Using Real-Time Data and Machine Learning. Manufacturing & Service Operations Management. 24 (6), 3193-3214
- Winner in 2022 INFORMS Aviation Applications Best Paper Award.
- Finalist in 2019 M&SOM Practice-Based Paper Competition.
Petropoulos, F., Apiletti, D., Assimakopoulos, V., ..., Guo X., ..., Ziel, F. 2022. Forecasting: theory and practice. International Journal of Forecasting. 8 120–137.
Guo, X., Grushka-Cockayne, Y. and De Reyck, B. 2020. London Heathrow Airport Uses Real-Time Analytics for Improving Operations. INFORMS Journal on Applied Analytics (formerly Interfaces) 50(5) 325–339.
- Finalist in 2019 Daniel H. Wagner Prize for Excellence in Operations Research Practice.
Guo, X., Beskos A. and Siddiqui A. 2016. The Natural Hedge of a Gas-Fired Power Plant. Computational Management Science 13 63–86.
Working papers/working in progress
Working papers/working in progress
Guo, X., Lichtendahl Jr, K.C. and Tassone, E. Bayesian Ensembles of Unlabeled Forecasts: A Rationale for Downweighting Extreme Forecasts. Prepare for submission.
Su, H., Guo, X. and Zhang, X. Weighted Average Ensemble with Regularization. Prepare for submission.
Sun, J., Guo, X., Tunca, T., Huang, Y., Roy, P. Optimizing Human-AI Collaboration: Expert Interpretation of AI Results and Approaches for Accuracy and Efficiency.
Guo, X. and Lichtendahl Jr, K.C. Quantile Regression with a Strictly Convex Objective.
Guo, X., Feylessoufi A and Korpeoglu, E. Multi-Channel Demand Forecasting and Revenue Management.
Other publications
Other publications
De Reyck, B., Guo, X., Grushka-Cockayne, Y., Lichtendahl Jr, K.C., Karasev, A., Garside, T., Coss, N. and Tasker, F., 2016. APOC Business Process Reengineering Big Data Study. Eurocontrol Technical Report.
De Reyck, B., Grushka-Cockayne, Y., Fragkos, I, Guo, X. 2021. Peer Review Optimism Bias Research. UK Department for Transport Technical Report.
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