第３回ワークショップ：「公共経済学と実証経済学の交差点：データ分析の進化と成果」
公共経済学の実証分析は、狭義の「財政」や「政策」の分析から著しく広がり、また分析データや分析手法も多様化しています。今回は、そのような公共経済学の実証分析の潮流を踏まえ、公共経済学およびその隣接領域のフロンティアで実証研究をしている３人の研究者に研究報告して頂きます。
開催日時: 2025年3月21日(金) 15:00-17:00
場所：オンライン
注：立教大学での対面開催はありませんのでご注意ください
セミナー参加登録はこちら （締め切りはとくになし）
懇親会参加登録はこちら （18:30あるいは19:00から新宿近辺を予定。締め切りは3/17（月））
15:00-15:40 古川知志雄（横浜国立大学）"A New Test for External Validity in Meta-Analysis" (with Tomas Havranek and Zuzana Havrankova)
Abstract: To what extent could meta-analyses pool together estimates from studies that estimate various effects? The most common existing approach to estimate the variance of the underlying effects. In this paper, we propose an alternative approach of estimating the tail index of the underlying effects distribution. When this index is beyond a threshold, the implied theoretical variance could be infinite. We apply this estimation to a data set of meta-analysis on nudges, and find that infinite variance is implied. We propose a method to mitigate this concern and help determine how much heterogeneity could be accepted.
15:40-16:20 山岸敦（一橋大学） "Wage Spillovers across Sectors: Evidence from a Localized Public-Sector Wage Cut" (joint with Tsuyoshi Goto)
Abstract: We study how institutional wage reforms in one sector spill over to other sectors by analyzing the public sector. We leverage the Japanese policy reform that cut public-sector wages only in certain municipalities and the institutional setting in which only young workers are eligible for public-sector jobs. We find that a 1% public-sector wage cut reduces the private-sector wages of young workers by 0.3%. This spillover elasticity is greater when public-sector jobs are more important as workers' outside options but smaller when a company labor union exists. We also find that the migration outflow of young workers is consistent with the decline in their welfare in spatial equilibrium.
16:20-17:00 山﨑潤一（京都大学）"Regime Change and Cities: Evidence from the Meiji Restoration" (with Masahiro Kubo, Ken Miura, Michichiro Namakura)
Abstract: This paper explores the impact of institutional reforms on urban development, focusing on the Meiji Restoration, during which approximately 250 feudal domains were consolidated into 46 prefectures. We delineate all cities by employing machine learning to digitize historical maps from the 1890s and 1920s. We find that castle cities chosen as prefectural centers increased their size and maintained good shape. Additionally, cities located more than 10 kilometers from the former castle cities, which lacked political importance during the feudal period, also experienced expansion. This suggests that the introduction of inclusive institutions resulted in both concentration at the prefectural level and dispersion at the domain level.