Climate change has reduced rice and crop productivity; floods in 2024 destroyed 1.1 million tons of rice, resulting in losses of 45 billion BDT along with increased health costs, and intensifying economic vulnerability. Floods affect 27 percent of the coastal population, potentially rising to 35 percent. Annual losses reach 3,000 crore BDT; Feni and Noakhali were hardest hit in 2024, while southeast f loods caused 14,421 crore BDT in damages which is26 percent of the national GDP) . Waterlogging has worsened due to 39 polders constructed in the 1960s, disrupting river-floodplain connectivity. Many farmers here are abandoning agriculture for alternative livelihoods such as shrimp farming, exacerbating food insecurity. Soil Resource Development Institute estimates that 870,000 hectares of cultivable land are moderately to severely saline, reducing crop yields by 3.48 tons/hectare, generating losses of 30 million tons of crops (~$367 million/year), plus $135 million for soil nutrient replacement. Between 2020-2025, fish production in the Bay of Bengal declined by 15-20 percent due to rising sea surface temperature and increased salinity. Reduced agricultural productivity and fisheries losses, along with industrial-environmental impacts, collectively undermine local economies and cause sudden unemployment among coastal labor forces.

The coastal belt comprises 19 districts with nearly 35 million residents. Bangladesh accounted for 1 million of over 30 million global climate-related displacements in 2015. Cyclone Sidr (2007) displaced 300,000 people; Cyclone Aila (2009) displaced millions; Cyclone Mocha (2023) displaced 1.3 million. Bangladesh ranks fifth globally in internally displaced persons. A 1-meter sea-level rise Page | 1/6 could displace up to 1.5 million residents. The National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) projects a sea-level rise of approximately 14 cm by 2030, 32 cm by 2050, and up to 88 cm by 2100. Sea level in the Bay of Bengal is rising faster than the global average (about 3.8–5.8 mm/year compared to 3.7 mm/year globally). Under moderate emissions scenarios, projections indicate an additional rise of 0.2–0.4 meters by 2050, which is expected to significantly intensify flooding and salinity intrusion. Migration is largely driven by cyclones, riverbank erosion, and declining agricultural land. In Satkhira, 50,000 people in 47 slums are climate refugees. The IPCC projects 17 percent of the coastal population will be displaced by 2050, while WHO estimates 7.1 million displaced by climate change in 2022, rising to 13.3 million by 2050. Annually, 400,000 people migrate from rural to urban areas, with 70 percent being climate refugees. Riverbank erosion displaces thousands yearly; the Meghna estuary lost 667 km² over 22 years.

Despite national poverty reduction to 19 percent in 2022, BBS data says, Barisal Division records 26.6 percent, with Bhola, Barguna, Patuakhali, Satkhira, and Bagerhat maintaining persistent poverty pockets. In Khulna, poverty rose from 10.2 percent in 2022 to 22.7 percent in 2024. Khas land totals 3.3 million acres, vital for landless populations; availability is declining due to river erosion, industrialization, and shrimp farming (Islam et al., 2018). According to the 1996 Agricultural Survey, 53.4 percent of coastal households are landless, owning only 17 percent of total land.

International financial institutions have funded large port, power, and resilience projects along Bangladesh’s coast, targeting Chattogram, Cox’s Bazar, Payra, Khulna, Barisal and nearby districts. The World Bank approved about $650 million for the Bay Terminal marine infrastructure in Chattogram to expand deep seaport capacity. Japan’s JICA backed the Matarbari deep-sea port and a 1,200 megawatt coal power complex, with JICA loan commitments reported at roughly Tk 480 billion for the package. China Exim Bank financed the Payra coal power plant with loans near $1.98 billion, and Chinese firms have played major roles in Payra port construction. ADB and AIIB fund transmission upgrades, connectivity and host community infrastructure, including multi-million dollar grants and loans for refugee host areas and regional grid works. These IFI and bilateral investments have delivered jobs and improved logistics, but they also caused harm. Reports and local studies document large scale land acquisition and displacement around Matarbari, ecosystem loss and reduced fisheries from port and dredging works at Payra, increased salinity and pressure on shrimp and crop livelihoods, and CSOs concern about health and climate impacts from coal development.

Alongside these persistent poverty and land tenure challenges, rapid industrial expansion and large scale infrastructure projects are further compounding ecological degradation and undermining the resilience of coastal communities. Approximately 190 industrial establishments operate within 10 km of the Sundarbans Impact Zone (SIZ), increasing toxic metals in rivers and reducing tree density. Thermal, chemical, and industrial effluents harm mangroves, fisheries, biodiversity, soil, and water. Major projects, including Matarbari and Maheshkhali energy hubs and Payra Port, displaced over 20,000 people, acquired more than 2,200 acres, increased salinity, and disrupted local livelihoods.

The Coastal Zone Policy 2005, Coastal Development Strategy (CDS), and Delta Plan 2100 guide development to address climate vulnerabilities. Delta Plan 2100’s first phase identifies 80 projects— Page | 2/6 65 infrastructure, 15 institutional—totaling approximately $37 billion, yet challenges persist in funding, technical capacity, and inter-agency coordination.

Reports from Samakal (2021), Bangla Tribune (2024), and Dhaka Post (2024) highlight the demand for forming a “Coastal Development Board”, as long-term waterlogging in Khulna’s Koyra and Satkhira has caused 40% of people to lose livelihoods and face health risks. Without resolving the challenges of 65 million coastal residents, sustainable development is impossible. To boost the south’s economy, sustainable embankments in Satkhira, Khulna, and Bagerhat are urgent, making the board’s formation essential.

The vulnerability of coastal areas is projected to increase further due to climate crisis, poverty, food insecurity, and internal migration. Coastal CSOs, academic institutions, professional groups, and community representatives are organizing the National Coastal Convention 2025 to develop evidence-based solutions through policy dialogue, knowledge exchange, multilateral partnerships, implementation of coastal policies, financing strategies for climate risk reduction. This collaborative platform seeks to address environmental, economic, and social vulnerabilities while building long term resilience for Bangladesh’s coastal communities.