INDIAN ECONOMIC SURVEY2022-2023

The Economic Survey of India is an annual document of the Ministry of Finance, Government of India. The Department of Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance presents the Survey in the Parliament every year, just before the Union Budget. It is prepared under the guidance of the Chief Economic Adviser of India.[1] This document is presented to both Houses of Parliament during the Budget Session.

INDIAN ECONOMIC SURVEY2022-2023

you're watching perspective India's

economic recovery from the covet

pandemic is complete and the economy is

expected to grow in the range of 6 to

6.8 percent in the coming Financial year

2023-24 despite the Slowdown India will

remain the fastest growing major economy

in the world as per the economic survey

2020-23 that was tabled in Parliament on

Tuesday by Finance Minister nirmala

sitaraman just a day before she presents

the union budget prepared by the chief

economic advisor V ananta nageshwaran

the economic survey details the state of

the Indian economy the challenges due to

global uncertainties and also the road

map for India's growth in the remainder

of this decade so in perspective today

we will analyze the key highlights of

the annual report card of the economy

and illustrous panel of experts join us

to discuss the key takeaways of the

economic survey so let me begin first by

introducing them to you with me this

Studios Dr SP Sharma Chief Economist and

director of research PhD Chamber of

Commerce and Industry Dr Sharma

delighted to have you with us in the

program and joining us virtually are two

distinguished panelists as well Mr Anand

singhbal former principal economic

advisor government of India and Mr MP

bizberwa his Professor Department of

economics guwahati University thank you

gentlemen for joining us on the program

as well uh Mr Paul let me begin the

program today with you so the survey of

course provides a detailed comprehensive

analysis of the state of the Indian

economy but if I may Begin by asking you

what for you are some of the biggest

takeaways that the economic survey

provides which comes at a time when we

are surrounded by global uncertainties

not to forget

so as rightly said the economic survey

presents a report card of the government

for the year 2022 21-22

and what it will uh auger for the next

year so basically it presents a

Economist the chief economic advisors

perspective on how the year failed as

far as economic economy went and based

on his analysis based on his uh sort of

perception how he expects the next year

to be so one big takeaway uh from this

survey is that this uh decade is now

going to be much better

the recovery from covet is very

categorically said is complete and now

the Indian economy will sort of Traverse

on a sort of higher growth path to a

more uh sort of a vibrant and bigger

economy so that for me is the sort of

biggest takeaway from this very

categorically the chief economic advisor

has said uh the recovery from Corona is

over and now thanks to the reforms over

the last uh 10 years which he has gone

out to spell it in great detail uh the

digital platform the capex the capital

expenditures and the banking uh reforms

how all these and the inclusive growth

and improved governance how all these

reforms will uh nudge India will push

India towards a higher growth growth

path and India will go on to become a

very uh strong Nation among the

committee of Nations thank you that's

right are you a professor that that's

one of the biggest uh factors of the

economic survey that we have not just uh

you know sustained that growth momentum

but the the good news is that we are and

we continue to remain the largest

fastest growing major economy despite

the Slowdown despite the global slowdown

I mean and despite the global answer

opportunities but what I would like you

to elaborate for the benefit of us and

our viewers is what for you have been

the three biggest reforms which have you

know held India's macroeconomic

parameters in a way which has helped us

position in a much much better and

comfortable position compared to the

other economies

it's extremely important that actually

actually the expectations which were

there a few months back you know that

was not so bright so now things are from

the from the facts that has been

presented to us in the economic survey I

mean the things look much better so

tomorrow uh Madam finance minister is

going to present her you know

budget you know sort of brighter kind of

Ambience Outlook rather all right and it

has been mentioned that growth has been

uh growth will be good next year also

but one has to remember that the last

year also growth was not bad actually

it's around seven percent which is quite

good coming out of you know the pandemic

so this is extremely important and uh

and the one has to look at this this

growth is also a fairly robust and uh

you know and spread out although

industry sector has not grow very fast

all the sectors have shown positive

board and what is important is India's

strength has been the services sector

and many of the services which were hit

very badly in the cobit time those have

actually uh have recovered now the

service sectors have learned this

particular growth from the supply side

and from the demand side also you know

household consumption expenditure has

actually been growing so there has been

growing the Malinda economy which is

extremely uh you know sort of

encouraging because even before the

coverage situation you remember that

Indian economy had started a Slowdown

and most of the economics were saying

that it was because of a slackening of

the demand there in the middle of 1918

around 2018 we started actually slowing

down so now it seems the things are all

actually uh uh sort of you know revived

I am not

shortly but before that I'd like to

point out one very important aspect that

is it is not only the our government's

economic survey which is saying that

things are good actually internationally

Also earlier today you know I've never

come up with a you know it's a revised

perspective on that global economy and

it says it's it's very positive which is

also very good thing for India uh you

know it's saying that the globally the

inflation has been picked so I mean the

high inflation will be coming down now

and uh there will not be a recession

that there was a fear of global decision

going down you know but then now

Professor I'll come back to the

inflation point in just a bit let me

bring in the Dr Sharma also into the

discussion get his perspective on what

he thinks about the economic survey uh

Dr Sharma has spoken several times in

the year gone by as well about what has

actually helped India uh you know turn

turn up to be a resilient economy there

have been several factors of that we

have spoken about in Greater detail but

now that the economic survey comes up

with this detailed analysis of the

several sectors that have been resilient

and that whose recovery has been much

faster than anticipated the question to

you is is it

uh the kind of impetus that we would be

expecting in at a time when the global

uncertainties remain at an all-time high

inflation continues to remain a worry

but the fact that we are still in a

position where we are able to you know

maintain that kind of growth that we had

hoped for

yes economic survey has Justified our

thoughts actually because now five

things major things have happened in the

economic survey firstly our our economy

is resilient that we we recovered

significantly we recovered quickly from

the lows of the 2021 and we recovered in

the second quarter of 2021 and the

growth was 8.7 percent in the uh 2021 uh

2122 and thereafter on that high growth

we are growing at the rate of seven

percent for the current year and next

year again we will grow at the at around

6.5 percent if we uh uh average the

trajectory of six to six point eight

percent so our growth will be at around

six point five percent so that is a

great thing that we are growing

sustained in a sustainable Manner and

the growth is consistent and that is

supported by the sound demand that is

number two in that resilience then thus

sound demand and third is the capital uh

government capital expenditure which

which has revived significantly at the

rate of sixty percent during the first

nine months of the current Financial

year that is a great thing that

government expenditure that is a great

pathway for the private Investments

private Investments are happening and

private Investments are picking up and

going forward there will be a great

private investment in the economy

considering the sound demand and the

capital Investments by the government

and despite all the uncertainties like

you mentioned that inflation High

inflation then the geopolitical

developments Russia Ukraine conflict and

the skyrocketing commodity prices

increased cost of raw materials which

has impacted the cost of doing business

despite all these headwinds we are

growing at a faster rate we are the

leading economy we are the fastest

moving economy in the top 10 leading

economies and I was going by the number

of IMF the recent release by the IMF

still there are more than 40 economies

which have not recovered from the

pre-pandemic level

and we are growing consistently enough

in every year we are posting more than

six percent growth rate and next year

again we will uh post the six point five

percent growth rate now the resilience

we are booted by the firstly agriculture

sector because agricultural sector is a

major growth driver during the difficult

years we grew more than three percent

for the consistent four years like like

sometimes the agriculture are majorly

dependent on the monsoon scenario and so

many factors but fortunately we were

able to grow at the rate of uh more than

three percent and that was supported by

the ever increasing food grain

production every year we are making a

new highs in the food grain production

and third thing is the resilience of the

agriculture exports now we are exporting

more than US dollar 50 billion every

year which has increased from 30 to 40

then again next year 40 to 50 and

current year I believe uh our

expectation that we will uh post at

around 60 billion in the agriculture

exports so these are the resiliences of

the economy or the fundamentals of the

economy which have created a great

support to the economy to move forward

with a sustainable Manner and a uh and

and at the high level like IMF always

says that we are a great a bright spot

in the global ecosystem that has proved

by the numbers by the economic survey by

the thoughts of The Economist so going

forward I think there is a need for the

great hand holding to the consumption

level because consumption is now a major

growth driver if the consumption happens

then the factories also expand their

production possibilities they expand

their capacities then they deploy more

and more Workforce in their factories so

consumption is a major driver that will

give a big push to the economy with the

increased demand in the economy and

climate happening in the factories

enhanced production possibilities and

enhance capacity expansion by the

private sector so I think the the driver

of consumption is majorly the disposable

income that will come from the

rationalization of taxes for the middle

income groups which is very high we are

rating uh Peak rates at at the middle

income of 15 lakhs which is not

happening I think many of the economies

and our threshold level is 2.5 lakh and

at the sixth multiple at 15 lakh we are

rating at highest peak rate which is a

30 percent so in many con like us they

in their Peak rate is 37 fold from the

threshold level average sixth 2.5

lakhand 15 lakhs so I think there is a

need for the rationalization of the

middle incomes so that the personal

disposable income increases and they are

able to spend more in the market okay

and the consumption level is increased

and and factories are able to expand

their production possibilities and the

capacity expansion is happening link and

more and more employment is created by

the factories and deployment of the

workforce is happening in their

respective premises sure so

so out what the future roadmap should be

like let me begin uh by focusing first

on the agriculture sector agriculture

has been a Bedrock for the Indian

economy in fact it was the you know it

helped us recover quite well as well the

contribution of the sector has been

immense during the pandemic as well what

the economic service says about the

Indian agricultural sector is that

although this sector has performed well

it needs some kind of reorientation

because of the kind of challenges that

it faces and some of the challenges that

it speaks about one of them happens to

be climate change of course and Rising

input cost now in the wake of these

challenges what are the kind of

reorientation efforts that will have to

be undertaken in order to boost the

agriculture sector what does the

economic service say

see there's no denying the fact that

agriculture has to perform well for the

Indian economy to go on its growth

trajectory we are more than 65 percent

of the people at households are

dependent on agriculture and about 49 to

50 people are dependent on agriculture

for employment so there's no denying its

importance and luckily for us it's been

growing at around three percent and the

government has done its bit by bringing

in measures and trying to promote

Innovation and providing Insurance to

this sector

but to

on first principles

to improve agriculture as we say we have

to sort of you know that lots of people

sort of having disguised unemployment in

agriculture so we have to increase the

productivity further and get people out

of Agriculture from agriculture to low

grade manufacturing and then on to

higher manufacturing that would be the

path which the economy will normally

take I remember one of the chief

economic advisors earlier used to say

the best way to help agriculture at the

moment is to get people out of

Agriculture you can't keep breaking the

land holds into smaller and smaller

pieces where productivity keeps going

down we have to go in for consolidation

we have to go in for productivity

increases we have to go in for

technology and a better and more green

inputs into it so that the agriculture

sector becomes sustainable it should not

be uh sort of seen just as a measure of

you know livelihood it should be seen as

a farmer's children at the moment are

not keen on joining agriculture as a

profession most of them are trying to

move out because there's not enough

incomes in agriculture although the

government is trying to sort of double

agricultural income and has done a lot

on that field

but there's a lot of scope there's a lot

of consolidation there's a lot of

technology which has to be brought in

there are a lot of focus inputs which

need to be there and the terms of trade

of Agriculture vis-a-vis industry and

services

need to improve for agriculture to

play a more robust role in the Indian

economy that's right Dr Sharma I'll come

back to you on that point the fact that

the survey also highlights how there is

need to increase investment and it says

it must be encouraged through an

affordable timeline inclusive approach

so that's the way to go forward how do

we do that how do we plan our strategy

especially because uh agriculture sector

is very very critical very very

significant for our economy yes

agriculture sector is very very critical

and significant part of the drivers of

economic growth so as mentioned by chief

economic advisor former chief economic

advisor that most of the population many

people are still dependent on the

agriculture sector so means most of the

demand is coming from the agriculture

sector if the agriculture sector is not

growing if the incomes are not growing

demand will not happen at that much

level

so like Investments firstly we have to

revive the investment trajectory in the

agriculture gross Capital formation in

the agriculture sector earlier it was at

around 18 19 of the total grass Capital

formation but now it is now nine to ten

percent only so we have to push the

infrastructure agriculture

infrastructure like the cold chains and

the rural roads rural Enterprises right

so if the growth is happening in the

rural Enterprises and we are able to

make it uh more and more resilient and

more robust in the food processing

sector like we produce every year a new

high in the food gain production so that

has to be converted in the food

processing like there are more than 1300

billion dollar agree and food imports in

the world ecosystem what we are able to

only export 50 billion dollar which has

increased now in the recent years from

30 to 50. during the last two three

years and now we are projecting that we

will grow at the 60 billion dollar but

the demand which is happening at the

global level is more than 1300 billion

here we are only 0.5 percent of the

total Global agree and food imports so

there is a lot of scope I think this is

the next I.T sector of the Indian

economy and we have the scope to

increase it to the level of 500 billion

dollar now we are only 50 and we have

0.5 percent despite an agrarian economy

we are we are point five percent of the

global aggregation to grow the question

is we need Investments yes

investments will come if the government

provides the basic infrastructure like

uh roads rural roads warehousing Cold

Storage all these things

must be focused during the budgets and

the gross Capital formation in the

agriculture sector must happen at the at

around 20 percent of the total gross

Capital formation which is now 10 of the

total so that has to be focused for the

more and more robust infrastructure that

will attract the private Investments if

the government investment is not

happening if the public investment is

not happening then the private sector

will not come that much in the uh

investments in the agriculture sector

that with the government sector will be

the major driver of the to attract the

private investment to provide the basic

infrastructure so I think there is lot

of scope firstly to produce more and to

produce adequately and to produce

efficiently okay then to export to the

other markets like there is lot of

demand and demand will happen and we

have to increase this trajectory from 50

billion dollar to 100 billion dollar and

then 250 billion dollar and 500 billion

dollar so I think that is the vision

that and that will help us to become a 5

trillion 10 trillion or even 20 trillion

dollar economy in the coming times if we

are able to focus much on our great

resilience of the agriculture sector and

that will also provide a great

employment opportunity to the rural

youth with the promotion of the rural

Enterprises right uh Professor our

resilience and the optimism stemming

from the various positives that we have

seen that has helped us recover faster

than anticipated but what about the

challenges how big a worry will

inflation continue to be is the first

question also tightening monetary policy

will it continue to have an impact on

the Indian rupee what kind of pressure

do you see in the times to come as well

okay first of all the monetary policy

you see monetary policy these days are

not entirely independent okay so if USA

is raising the rates we have to uh you

know we cannot keep our rates low

because in that case there will be a lot

of capital outflow and we are going to

have a problem so I mean the government

cannot do much about uh these kind of

things but coming back to inflation

inflation uh globally actually the

inflation has the IMF report says is it

has picked it is now coming down

gradually in India we have seen the

economics economic survey uh curves that

wholesale price indexes are actually

having a you know it's coming down but

then this Consumer Price Index is still

very very high but since we have a

massive food stamps food grain Surplus I

think India will not be in serious

trouble regarding uh managing the

inflation because food inflation is the

most important thing because it hurts

the poles uh the most but if you will

allow me I'd like to come back to ad

because my field has been actually

agriculture sure I have been itching to

go for a few things actually you know in

the last two decades in this particular

Century after The Agrarian crisis was

more or less you know overcome Indian

agriculture has actually become very

Dynamic it has Diversified into things

like 40 high value crops like

Horticulture livestock and so on so

forth and that is why

I might have said the need for this you

know uh what you call the value chain

you know Post Service value chain is

extremely important so that investment

has to come in how it comes of course is

different different we can get corporate

investment and government investment

also I mean government particularly

roads you know PMG Road uh GS5 roads are

greatly you know instrumentally in

actually bringing in this change and uh

so I mean their maintenance and all that

or maybe their further expansion uh

could be necessary just two more things

I would like to add one is that you know

see land reforms have become necessary

because many people have left

agriculture so now some people have land

who choose they have cannot cultivate

and others don't have land so if we make

tenancy very easy so that leasing our

Indian leasing our plan becomes easy

then there can be Revival of Agriculture

I mean Farm size and and and actual data

can be Revival okay second thing is that

you know agriculture we want to be our

backbone we want to grow but when

Whenever there is no internationally

leader price is very high our farmers

are normally deprived of you know

reaping the benefit of that obvious

because then we we start in a um and

whenever in international price will be

high when there is a production shortage

in some crops but then in that case

domestically we want to restrict the

price you know so that farmers are not

able to benefit so I think we should

start refraining from doing that

actually so that will benefit the

farmers greatly so these two reforms I

would like to put forward in fact

Professor since you spoke about reforms

my next question to Mr Bal is also about

reforms you know know uh Mr Bal the fact

that the economic survey clearly states

that the journey that we've traversed

the the resilience that we have shown

and what has placed Us in this better

position today that we shine as a bright

spot despite the global uncertainty is

the series of efforts and initiatives

and reforms that we have undertaken over

the last eight years or so now laying

out the future roadmap the economic

survey talks about how there is need to

dismantle LIC licensing inspection

compliance regime now how difficult uh a

vision is that in a country like ours

where we've been talking about this for

several years but perhaps we've not been

able to do so and which also has become

a major hurdle when we talk about our

sustained growth

true see the government has been

focusing on ease of doing business for

the last seven eight years

and dismantling your license and

controls is a very important and

compliance is a very important part of

it and only yesterday I was reading 3500

compliances have been deduced and 400

sort of controls have been reduced so it

is very much been on the radar of the

government and I remember

interministerial committees would look

at it and try and improve uh the try and

improve and soften the edge of these

license control Raj the ease of doing

business in which we jumped very high in

2014 India was ranking about 142nd and

about three four years back our rank was

about 16. till it was unfortunately the

ease of doing Business ranking was

stopped by the World Bank so India did

very well on that front and one of the

main Frontiers was through easing

compliances and all right and if you ask

me what is The Binding constraint on

India's growth story at the moment it is

trying to get this regulatory

architecture right without this

regulatory architecture be it in the

Telecom sector be it in the capital

markets be it in banking should should

not be too intrusive should not be too

harsh and it should be rule based and

transparent that is what uh the mark of

a good regulator in a advanced economy

absolutely from the industry's

perspective Dr Sharma that's going to be

a huge relief and a welcome move but uh

how positive how optimistic are you

about this actually happening because

we've been hearing a lot of uh uh

previous economic advisors also and I'm

sure Mr Bal would have heard it over the

years how this has become a major

stumbling block when we talk about

growth levels and accelerating India's

economic growth yes that is true that we

improve from 142 to 63. but there's a

lot that has to be percolated at the

ground level ease of doing business must

happen for these small businesses for

the MSM is because the corporate the

majorly corporates are globally

integrated they have a good resilience

they are connected very much with the

global markets they are connected with

the global value chains but the ease of

doing business is required for the

particularly for the msme sector and the

government has resulted they have now

introduced the single window system now

the single window system is available in

more than 16 States and uh many reforms

are taking place and the government is

Consulting the industry wise and and

segment wise reforms needed for these

off doing business one of those uh sorry

to cut a shot but one of those is very

important and which I would like you to

uh

accumulation of the minor offenses that

is needed at this juncture which creates

lot of hurdles and root blocks for the

businesses to move forward that has to

be focused that must be at the radar of

the government okay so that will provide

a great room for the small businesses to

move forward because they are they they

are facing so much compliance cost and

they don't have the much resources to go

to the courts and uh all these to

fulfill the all the comprises in fact so

the economic survey does talk about a

lot of other reforms a host of other

reforms that may be required in the

times to come but one very quick

question time is running out and on

which the industry can actually play a

very significant role is include

including women in India's growth story

we've done remarkably well but the fact

that we still have to go a long way

ahead the economic survey clearly talks

about how in the next decade we should

include more and more women particularly

in leadership roles so how can the

industry actually transform yes we are

very positive that the this amritical

next 25 years will be the women that

growth I think the women participation

in the GDP will increase and now they

are taking the lead and going forward

more and more participation by the women

at the leadership rules at the

significant rules will provide a great

trajectory to the Indian economy to move

forward and to become more and more

sustainable in the next 25 years to

become a developed economy and to become

a economy of US dollar 30 trillion or 40

trillion that will be the vision of the

Indian economy led by the women and

women enter okay so with that hope I'll

have to wind up the program time allows

me to take up only that much on the

program today thank you Professor Mr Bal

and Dr Sharma for joining me on the

program today sharing your thoughts with

us and our viewers and to you viewers

thank you very much for your time I'll

see you same time tomorrow now in fact

tomorrow through the day we will uh you

know cover the the first the

presentation of the budget and analyze

every detail of the Union budget through

the day tomorrow the first of February

on Sunset TV so do tune in to Sunset TV

tomorrow starting 8 A.M till 10 pm we

will decode the union budget for you the

entire day on the channel thank you very

much for your time