If you asked me about fertility and the factors driving decisions, I’d focus first on whether women have control over their own fertility and how social norms shape, and often constrain, their decisions. Then I’d look at what it costs (here and here) for women to have children - consider the long-term impact on employment and earnings opportunities, which in turn affects savings and pensions for women.
What might change the recent downturn in fertility? I think getting Dads to take on their share of the cost is key. A study based on Norwegian data shows that same-sex parents tend to split the employment and earnings penalties associated with having kids, and they see less persistence in those penalties as a result. Those penalties add up over one’s lifetime, a lot more than the cost of childcare or kids’ activities. How might you convince Dads to work more at primary caregiving? Good luck.
How many kids do women actually want? We only see the outcomes of constrained choice, not a pure preference. But there’s a few surveys.
In a recent Statistics Canada survey, people aged 25-34 reported they wanted to have (on average) 1.51 kids. Younger people (15-24) reported 1.35. (find that here: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/11-627-m/11-627-m2023006-eng.htm ) It also looks like men want more kids than women (CBC article here).
My take: I’m not convinced any of this represents a problem that needs fixing. I think women having control over their fertility is a good thing. I am not in the business of convincing women to have more children for reasons that aren’t in their own best interest. Should policy makers think hard about this when planning for the future? Certainly. But that’s just something to plan for, it doesn’t have to be framed as a problem.
