SIHS SEMINAR Series

次回セミナー/Next Seminar

2026年7月17日(金)　July 17 (Fri.), 2026 5:20PM-6:50PM

報告者/Presenter: Yoseph Getachew and Ruthira Naraidoo  (University of Pretoria)    

Title: Climate Change and Fiscal Policy for Small Open Commodity-Exporting Economies 

場所：2号館11階経済学部会議室B

Venue: 11th Floor, Bldg. No.2 Meeting Room B 

幹事/Organizer：村上勇気/Yuki Murakami 

言語/Language：英語/English 

要旨/Abstract: We study the implications of climate change and the associated mitigation measures for fiscal policy in a small open economy general equilibrium model for a commodity exporter and derive the optimal carbon tax required to mitigate the marginal externality damage of emissions. The implications of climate-related issues for the conduct of fiscal policy is of paramount importance given the tax implications on fossil fuel industries and the green transition. For commodity-exporting economies, these issues are even more pertinent, since they generally produce commodity goods which are usually detrimental to the environment via either the process of extraction or the production process that involves a heavy carbon gas emission, while at the same time, they rely heavily on commodity production as their main source of livelihood. This paper pays close attention to these issues. Our preliminary results are twofold. First, a subsidy on green energy increases output and improves the country’s international competitiveness and trade balance. Second, a fossil fuel tax, while reducing the carbon-emission-induced damage to the commodity exporter, can cause an economic downturn, exacerbated by a negative trade balance resulting from a lack of international competitiveness. Hence, a carbon tax can have recessionary effects in commodity-exporting economies. As such, engineering a tax level on the commodity sector, while switching to an optimal, better long-term solution of green energy, is key.