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My projections are done for both contract extensions and unrestricted free agent signings as term and cap hit may differ in both scenarios.
All data used in the projections are from MoneyPuck.com.
All contract numbers not produced by me are from PuckPedia.
All Matchup Strength numbers are sourced from PuckIQ.
All pictures used are from the NHL.
Projections can be made for any player active/inactive(2008-Present), as long as there is sufficient NHL data for the player. These custom projections are available upon request.
This model is a combination of 3 separate projections, Cap Hit, Length and if a Two Way contract can be expected. The first two projections are made using a Cubist algorithm, while the Two Way projection is made using a Random Forest algorithm. For all contracts projected as "Two Way", Cap Hit is set as a league minimum contract ($775,000 for 2024). The Length projection is made as a percentage of likelihood the player receives a contract of each possible length. The length with the highest probability is used as the most likely outcome. The Cap Hit projections are made for every possible contract length.
It has so far resulted in much better performance with more than 75% of the projections being less than 30% off.
Player Cards are available upon request and will be made using the most updated information possible. There are a few different types of player cards but more customization is also available upon request.