Free Agency 2024 Model Performance

Looking at the Percentage Errors, I don't think the numbers are amazing, though I don't have a reference point for them, so I'll let these numbers be the target values for next year. Definitely some room for improvement.

Lastly, the above is a total free agency performance by team with their position in the 2023-24 standings, as well as their tax rate and tax rank. 

One interesting trend form these results is how well the teams with favourable tax positions scored. Tax advantage has been a topic of discussion the past few years in the NHL and my model seems to second those who say it does play an advantage in luring and keeping players. Teams in the top half of this list have an average tax rate that's 6% better than the average market. The only teams in the top half of this list without a favourable tax situation are Edmonton, Vancouver, Winnipeg and Toronto. All of which had great regular seasons and 2 of which had good playoff runs. The message here from my model is loud and clear: money talks, and so does winning.

Just a couple quick thoughts on what I saw that I liked or didn't like.

Best FA Signings(opinion): Nashville Predators

To start, I think Nashville had the best free agency. They added multiple impact players and weren't afraid to spend money dong so. The team is instantly better from last year and I think they could make a good run in the playoffs if they can stay healthy. Colorado was a close second, followed by Edmonton. I like the players they added on cheaper contracts. For Colorado, their signings of Erik Brannstrom and Oliver Kylington are both low risk, high reward and I love that approach given their lack of salary cap space. For Edmonton, I really liked the addition of Jeff Skinner, who is one season removed from putting up 82 points. 

Worst FA Signings(opinion): Buffalo Sabres

I was pretty underwhelmed with the additions that Buffalo made. I think they overpaid to get Jason Zucker and I don't believe he's the kind of player to make a huge difference in team performance. Sam Lafferty was fine for the Vancouver Canucks last year but his production tailed off towards the end of the season and was a non-factor in the playoffs. Same goes for Nicolas Aube-Kubel. I just don't think any of these signings really move the needle in what looks to be a crowded Atlantic Division. I didn't make mention of Chicago or San Jose as I don't believe you can really judge the basement dwellers in the same light as these other teams.

Favourite Signing: Jeff Skinner

As mentioned earlier, Skinner is one season removed from 82 points and is still a highly effective winger. For an Edmonton team that just lost in the finals, I think Skinner at only $3 million was a great value and will play off extremely well. 

Least Favourite Signing: Joel Edmundson

Joel Edmundson is not the player he used to be. He has never once played a full season and he's on the other side of his prime. LA will hope that he can fill the void left by Matt Roy but I just don't see that happening.

Most Surprising Contract: William Carrier

Not to say that this was a bad contract because it certainly wasn't but William Carrier getting a 6 year contract for $2 million was just in fact legitimately surprising. He will be 35 years old when this contract expires so it could be a touch too long but to have a reliable bottom six winger locked up for 6 years is very reassuring. 

Most Original Signing: Chris Tanev

This one might not make sense to some people but the Toronto Maple Leafs actually got a right handed defenseman who can play on more than just the third line! In the last 5 years, the only attempt they made was with John Klingberg last year, but that always seemed destined to fail. 

Least Original Signing: Anthony Beauvillier

Kyle Dubas has a type and that should come as no surprise at this point in his career. Beauvillier fits the mold perfectly. Highly skilled winger who needed a change of scenery and a chance to prove himself. 

Good Question.

Depending on what you find important, that answer will vary. But within the context of contract projections, this model performed fairly well.

The main "competitors" here are AFP Analytics and Evolving Hockey. Both of which present their contract projections very differently. AFP Analytics makes their projections with what they determine will be the most likely length outcome, as well as the most likely salary outcome. So, 1 cap hit projection for 1 length projection. Evolving Hockey however, will have a range of lengths, each with a percentage likelihood and corresponding salaries for each of those lengths. Their projections will also differ for expiry contract status, signing date and signing status. Evolving Hockey also doesn't include players who have signed a minimum contract into their projections. With this being the case, it makes comparing my projections to each of theirs a little complicated. These comparisons are not 1-1 and that should be kept in mind when reading the next section.

Compared to AFP Analytics, performance wise, I'd say it was about the same. I was more accurate in cap hit MAE, but they were much more accurate in length MAE. Both projections had their own strengths and weaknesses. Personally, I value cap hit accuracy as the more important metric, and have spent most of my time trying to minimize that number. That being said, I certainly did not anticipate my length error to be as bad as it was. Looking at some other cap hit error MAE numbers: I was better with skaters but they were much better with goalies. Once again, due to the different ways we make projections and the results of those projections, in my opinion I would once again say we are about equal. 

Compared to Evolving Hockey, overall, I've done slightly worse than them. I'll be honest, I do not have a subscription for their site but, I did listen to their podcast where they talked about their model's results and in addition to reading the article on their model's performance. Using the numbers they've given on their performance blog and their measurement method (no minimum contracts and goalies separate), I did beat their UFA cap hit MAE but they beat my RFA cap hit MAE. They also beat me in goalie cap hit MAE, which led to them having a better overall cap hit MAE as well. Overall my R-Squared was 0.857 to their 0.861, so not far off at all but I do think they they did better than me this year. 

Keeping in mind that this was my first year doing this, I'm extremely happy with how it's turned out. I'm surprised at how competitive I was within this space given the experience of AFP Analytics and Evolving Hockey.