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We are starting to receive data on the Omicron variant of the coronavirus that causes COVID19. The number of Omicron-related cases is expected to double approximately every 2 days. To prevent further overwhelming our healthcare system and to reduce suffering and mortality associated with this virus, the following steps are crucial:
- Get vaccinated.
- Get a booster shot, if you are eligible (anyone 16 years old or older who was vaccinated more than 6 months ago).
- Get kids vaccinated (5 – 16-year-old age group). This is because children have a 20% increased infection rate in the Omicron wave as compared to previous waves. Some evidence suggests that it Omicron may be more severe in kids, but this is still emerging.
- Know that a prior COVID19 infection does not protect against Omicron.
In a study of over 200,000 positive COVID19 patients in South Africa (where Omicron is the dominant strain), 41% had 2 shots of Pfizer. The vaccinated group was 33% more protected than the unvaccinated. This is starkly different than what we have seen in previous waves; This variant is escaping more vaccine related immunity. Before Delta, this number was well over 90%, and during the Delta wave, this number was over 80%. However, there is good news. 2 doses of Pfizer were still over 70% protective against severe disease.
The better news? Getting a third dose of the shot increases your COVID-fighting antibodies (the part of your immune system that wards off the virus) by 100-fold!
If we stop the Omicron variant from spreading (remember - it is already here, it is spreading in the United States – but Delta is still the dominant variant in the US), then we do not have to worry about these numbers. To stop it from spreading we need to:
- Avoid crowds – ESPECIALLY before you gather with friends and family before Christmas
- Mask up – even if you are vaccinated – when you are around anyone with an unknown vaccination status (for example in grocery stores around strangers, at work, etc.). Personally, I am still choosing to wear a mask at work 100% of the time that I am not eating or drinking, and I work in a hospital/university where COVID19 vaccinations are mandatory.
- Vaccinate vaccinate vaccinate.
As far as the “well Omicron spreads faster, but it is milder” is not a valid argument to be lax about protection strategies. Even a “milder” variant can cause much higher mortality (see figure attached to this post).
There is no logical way of thinking to plausibly conceive that not getting vaccinated is better for your or your child’s health than getting vaccinated against this nasty disease. We are running a race against the virus, and it will keep evolving (new variants will emerge) to outrun us.
In South Africa, Delta took about 2 months to reach around ~20,000 cases a day. Omicron took 19 days to reach that number.
I put this post together in a few minutes at work in between a few things I need to get done – so I will update as I am able to evaluate more information. Please be kind if this is full of typos.
Sources:
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/biontech-pfizer-say-test-shows-3-doses-vaccine-neutralise-omicron-2021-12-08/
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.08.21267491v1
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.13.21267670v1
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.10.21267594v2
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/12/14/south-africa-omicron-coronavirus/
https://www.discovery.co.za/corporate/news-room
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