My research focuses on the interaction between stock market movements, macroeconomic forces, and corporate actions. I examine how firms "actively infer" within their financial and economic environment when developing and adjusting key actions, such as Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A), R&D, and Equity Offerings. In doing so, I focus on the channels through which the richness or fragility of the information environment can be leveraged by both investors and companies to properly position themselves in a complex business environment.

I am highly interested in the work of the late economist G.L.S. Shackle on the epistemic problems in modern economics. Shackle's key observation is that the consequential role of time in shaping expectations is not properly understood in either the neoclassical or the behavioural traditions. Interpreting financial decisions using the rational/irrational dichotomy is simplistic and misleading. An alternative approach based on active inference and the Free Energy Principle seems to me more fruitful (here is an initial elaboration).

I am the founder of Epistemica, an independent firm that helps decision-making groups capitalise on Artificial Intelligence to preserve and refine strategic intuition.

In my free time, I enjoy martial arts (Krav Maga, Boxing) and reading in coffee shops. I am an admirer of the American Pragmatist tradition of Peirce, James, and Dewey. I view my research as an extension of this tradition into the realm of financial decision-making. I spend a non-trivial portion of my salary on cigars and old books, with no regrets whatsoever! I like to claim to be a cigar aficionado.