Autumn 2024

Working paper

Details: In this paper, we study the dynamics of earnings in Ireland from 2011 to 2022 using administrative data. We provide a set of analysis on the evolution of earnings inequality, volatility and mobility in the Irish labour market. We also investigate the relationship between wage and macroeconomic performance, which provides evidence on worker’s aggregate risk exposure across income distribution. 

Preliminary results

Details: The framing of disabilities in job applications plays a critical role in shaping employer responses, yet the optimal strategy for disclosure remains under-explored. This paper investigates how different framings of learning disabilities such as ADHD and dyslexia etc, affect callback rates in the UK labour market.

Early-stage idea

Working paper

Details: .I estimate the impact of interstate tensions on asylum recognition rates recorded in the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) dataset. Using the gravity framework, I estimate a global sample from 2000 to 2019. I construct three interstate tensions measures. First, using the Global Sanctions Database (GSDB), I measure tensions arising from the frequency and length of imposed sanctions between countries. Second, using the UCDP/PRIO dataset, I construct an interstate conflict variable by measuring the frequency and duration of conflicts. Third, using UN General Assembly voting patterns as a proxy, I measure the ideological differences between countries. My results show longer sanction history between countries and larger ideological differences result in higher asylum recognition rates while although positive, interstate conflict is insignificant. This research highlights the importance of non-humanitarian factors in granting asylum.

Working paper

Details: .China has achieved rapid growth in both gross exports and export variety, sparking discussions about the ‘second China shock’ and raising concerns about imbalanced trade across countries. In response, the EU and the U.S. have increased tariffs on Chinese products to protect their domestic industries. However, the drivers behind China's export expansion remain to be fully explored. This paper aims to study how the production network is endogenously generated within China and how it contributes to its rapidly increasing exports. Furthermore, we will simulate how trade shocks, such as higher import tariffs, affect trade flows and welfare across countries based on the endogenous production network.

Early-stage idea

Details: Natural disasters are becoming more frequent and intense globally, while whether people learn from disasters and become more resilient is still unexplored. This research matches family survey data and disaster data in the United States. Using hurricanes as quasi-natural experiments, this research studies whether families try to build their resilience after a natural disaster, and examines whether families actually become more resilient.

Early-stage idea and preliminary results 

Details:Within-country inequality has prompted governments around the world to implement growth-enhancing policies directed towards underperforming regions. The success of such policies is an empirical question with mixed evidence in the literature. This study analyses a reduction in the corporate income tax rate for small and medium enterprises located in less developed regions of Portugal. Using administrative data and a staggered DID approach, I will show preliminary results on the impact of this fiscal place-based policy on firm performance and growth. 

Early-stage idea

Details: This paper examines the long-term effects of exposure to Glacier Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) during early childhood (ages 0-16) on adult human development outcomes in the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region. Using a comprehensive dataset of historical GLOF events and GIS software to map downstream pathways, we define treatment and control areas. Through OLS regressions with fixed effects, we find that childhood GLOF exposure is associated with a 1.4 to 1.8 kg/m² lower Body Mass Index (BMI) and an average reduction of one year of schooling across all age cohorts. While the health impacts persist in the short term (1-2 years), they diminish over time, suggesting a nutritional shock that communities may have adapted to, possibly through changes in agricultural practices. These findings provide valuable insights into the socio-economic costs of hydrological hazards in vulnerable but understudied regions.

Working paper