Speaker: Martin Barlow

Title: Sleeping Beauty meets Kolmogorov

Abstract: The Sleeping Beauty problem was formulated in the philosophy literature around 2001, and probes the question of inference when a random experiment may give rise to multiple observers. At first sight it may appear to be a simple exercise in Bayes' theorem (like the Monty Hall problem), but I assert that it is more subtle than that. I will show that the problem can be handled by Kolmogorov's axioms, but that all solutions lead to problematic or paradoxical conclusions.